KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -19.5✓ ND covered by 8.5
LOU -19.5✓ ND covered by 8.5Closing total155.5Under by 14.5
 ND | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-11 | Record | 15-6 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 11-10 |
| 14-8 | O/U | 8-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ND 69–85 LOU · ✓ LOU (92%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 32 | 33 | 65 |
| LOU | 38 | 38 | 76 |
1st half: ND 32, LOU 38 (LOU by 6). The model had LOU by 9.5 and a total of 71.9 (actual 70).
Team stats
| ND | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-62 39% | Field goals | 28-65 43% |
| 11-27 41% | 3-pointers | 7-31 23% |
| 6-14 43% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 35 12 off | Rebounds | 46 16 off |
| 14 | Assists | 19 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Certa G | 35 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 6-18 | 5-14 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 34 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-4 |
| Brady Koehler F | 32 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 29 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Carson Towt F | 25 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Logan Imes G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Ryder Frost F | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Matthew MacLellan F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brady Stevens, Mark Zackery IV, Kebba Njie, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Markus Burton
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 33 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-14 | 1-9 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 28 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1-7 | 1-5 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 27 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Sananda Fru F | 17 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 26 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 18 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-4 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-1 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -19.5
ModelLOU -16.1
Model edgeND +3.4
W ND covered
Total
Market155.5
Model153.6
Model edgeUnder 1.9
W Under
Projected score
ND 68.7 · LOU 84.8
ND 65 · LOU 76
Win probability
LOU 92%
1st half
Spread
LOU -9.5
LOU -6.0
Total
71.9
70 points
Projected score
ND 31.2 · LOU 40.7
ND 32 · LOU 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -14.5
5 → LOU
CloseLOU -19.5
5 pts toward LOU
Total
Open152.5
▲ 3
Close155.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
ND +1500 · LOU -3600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -14.5 · closed LOU -19.5 · moved 5 toward LOUmodel LOU -16
model LOU -16
Opened 152.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 3 upmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ND 4–1 LOUND leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · ND 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024-25 | LOU 75 @ ND 60 | ND +7.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | ND 72 @ LOU 50 | LOU -3.5 | ND W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | LOU 62 @ ND 76 | ND -9.5 | ND W |
| Feb 9, 2021-22 | LOU 57 @ ND 63 | ND -6.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 22, 2021-22 | ND 82 @ LOU 70 | LOU -3 | ND W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Notre Dame
22 games played
Straight up
11-11
50% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-8
64% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @ STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @ CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs CLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs MIA | L 69-81 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ VT | L 76-89 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @ UNC | L 69-91 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | vs BC | W 68-64 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 27 | vs UVA | L 97-100 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @ SYR | L 72-86 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
−6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
−6.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
−8.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−3.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+6.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
−7.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
13
vsMIA
MIAL 69-81
+6.5
17
@VT
VTL 76-89
+21.5
21
@UNC
UNCL 69-91
+10.5
24
vsBC
BCW 68-64
−5.5
27
vsUVA
UVAL 97-100
+51.5
31
@SYR
SYRL 72-86
+10.5
over 14under 8avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
21 games played
Straight up
15-6
71% wins
Against the spread
11-10
52% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-13
38% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vsBC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsUVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsVT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
covered 11didn’t cover 10avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
over 8under 13avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Notre Dame
11-11 overall · 2-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Syracuse72–86
- Lvs Virginia97–100
- Wvs Boston College68–64
- L@ North Carolina69–91
- L@ Virginia Tech76–89
4 days since their last game.
Louisville
15-6 overall · 5-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SMU88–74
- L@ Duke52–83
- Wvs Virginia Tech85–71
- W@ Pitt100–59
- Lvs Virginia70–79
4 days since their last game.