Watsco Center · at Miami · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -9.5✓ STAN covered by 0.5
MIA -9.5✓ STAN covered by 0.5Closing total147.5Over by 1.5
 STAN | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14-6 | Record | 16-4 |
| 10-10 | ATS | 11-9 |
| 7-13 | O/U | 13-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: STAN 71–80 MIA · ✓ MIA (80%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 40 | 30 | 70 |
| MIA | 35 | 44 | 79 |
1st half: STAN 40, MIA 35 (STAN by 5). The model had MIA by 5.5 and a total of 70.9 (actual 75).
Team stats
| STAN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-62 44% | Field goals | 27-57 47% |
| 11-24 46% | 3-pointers | 6-15 40% |
| 5-10 50% | Free throws | 19-31 61% |
| 30 13 off | Rebounds | 39 15 off |
| 16 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Agarwal G | 34 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Ebuka Okorie G | 33 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 8-21 | 1-5 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 24 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Donavin Young F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aidan Cammann F | 29 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Benny Gealer G | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Cameron Grant G | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Stinson, Chisom Okpara, Tallis Toure, Anthony Batson Jr., Jaylen Thompson, Ethan Kitch, Myles Jones, Kristers Skrinda
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 38 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 2-4 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 34 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 4-11 | 0-3 |
| Malik Reneau F | 28 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 6-10 | 1-1 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 28 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dante Allen G | 25 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tru Washington G | 26 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-2 |
| Timo Malovec F | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jordyn Kee, Treyvon Maddox, Marcus Allen, JJ Laboy
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -8.5
1 → MIA
CloseMIA -9.5
1 pt toward MIA
Total
Open149.5
▼ 2
Close147.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
STAN +350 · MIA -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -8.5 · closed MIA -9.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -9.5 matches the line
model MIA -9.5 = line ✓
Opened 149.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 2 downmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -9.5 | MIA -9.5 | — | STAN covered |
| Total | 147.5 | 151.4 | Over 3.9 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | STAN 70.9 · MIA 80.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MIA -5.5 | STAN -5.0 |
| 1H total | 70.9 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | STAN 32.7 · MIA 38.2 | STAN 40 · MIA 35 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
STAN 1–0 MIASTAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · STAN 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | MIA 51 @ STAN 88 | STAN -10.5 | STAN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Stanford
20 games played
Straight up
14-6
70% wins
Against the spread
10-10
50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-13
35% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs MONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vs ND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | vs LOU | W 80-76 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ VT | W 69-68 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | @ UVA | L 55-70 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 14 | vs UNC | W 95-90 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | vs DUKE | L 50-80 | +11.5 | L −18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs CAL | L 66-78 | -4.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
+11.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
+4.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−2.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+9.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
24
vsCAL
CALL 66-78
−16.5
covered 10didn’t cover 10avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
−1.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
−11.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−18.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+37.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
24
vsCAL
CALL 66-78
−2.5
over 7under 13avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
20 games played
Straight up
16-4
80% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-7
65% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
over 13under 7avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Stanford
14-6 overall · 3-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs California66–78
- Lvs Duke50–80
- Wvs North Carolina95–90
- L@ Virginia55–70
- W@ Virginia Tech69–68
4 days since their last game.
Miami
16-4 overall · 5-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Syracuse85–76
- Lvs Florida St63–65
- L@ Clemson59–69
- W@ Notre Dame81–69
- Wvs Georgia Tech91–81
4 days since their last game.