Maples Pavilion · at Stanford · Conference game
Closing line
STAN -4.5✓ CAL covered by 16.5
STAN -4.5✓ CAL covered by 16.5Closing total146.5Under by 2.5
 CAL | This season | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | Record | 14-5 |
| 9-9 | ATS | 10-9 |
| 8-10 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CAL 72–75 STAN · ✗ STAN (58%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 38 | 40 | 78 |
| STAN | 34 | 32 | 66 |
1st half: CAL 38, STAN 34 (CAL by 4). The model had STAN by 1.2 and a total of 68.8 (actual 72).
Team stats
| CAL | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-58 41% | Field goals | 18-66 27% |
| 10-25 40% | 3-pointers | 6-31 19% |
| 20-25 80% | Free throws | 24-31 77% |
| 41 9 off | Rebounds | 43 16 off |
| 7 | Assists | 9 |
| 3 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 4 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Pippen G | 36 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 4-14 | 3-7 |
| John Camden F | 35 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 8-13 | 5-8 |
| Chris Bell F | 34 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Dai Dai Ames G | 28 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-12 | 0-4 |
| Lee Dort F | 13 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Milos Ilic C | 22 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Semetri Carr G | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| DeJuan Campbell G | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jovani Ruff, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Stephon Marbury II, Rytis Petraitis, Sammie Yeanay, Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Agarwal G | 33 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-6 |
| Ebuka Okorie G | 31 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1-16 | 0-9 |
| Donavin Young F | 29 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Benny Gealer G | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 33 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 7-17 | 3-7 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 24 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 17 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Grant G | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Chisom Okpara, Kristers Skrinda, Myles Jones, Ethan Kitch, Jaylen Thompson, Anthony Batson Jr., Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSTAN -2.5
2 → STAN
CloseSTAN -4.5
2 pts toward STAN
Total
Open145.5
▲ 1
Close146.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
CAL +170 · STAN -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened STAN -2.5 · closed STAN -4.5 · moved 2 toward STANmodel STAN -2
model STAN -2
Opened 145.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 upmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | STAN -4.5 | STAN -2.2 | CAL +2.3 | W CAL covered |
| Total | 146.5 | 146.8 | Over 0.3 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | CAL 72.3 · STAN 74.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | STAN -1.2 | CAL -4.0 |
| 1H total | 68.8 | 72 |
| 1H projected score | CAL 33.8 · STAN 35 | CAL 38 · STAN 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| STAN | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
CAL 3–7 STANSTAN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · STAN has won the last 5 meetings · CAL 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | CAL 73 vs STAN 78 | STAN -7.5 | CAL W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | CAL 61 @ STAN 66 | STAN -6.5 | CAL W |
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | STAN 89 @ CAL 81 | CAL -1.5 | STAN W |
| Mar 13, 2023-24 | STAN 87 vs CAL 76 | CAL +1.5 | STAN W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | CAL 58 @ STAN 80 | STAN -4.5 | STAN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
California
18 games played
Straight up
13-5
72% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ UVA | L 60-84 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ VT | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | vs DUKE | L 56-71 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNC | W 84-78 | +7.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−9.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+2.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−0.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+13.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−4.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+4.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−22.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+10.5
over 8under 10avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Stanford
19 games played
Straight up
14-5
74% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs MONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vsND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | vsLOU | W 80-76 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @VT | W 69-68 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | @UVA | L 55-70 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 14 | vsUNC | W 95-90 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | vsDUKE | L 50-80 | +11.5 | L −18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
+11.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
+4.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−2.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+9.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
−1.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
−11.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−18.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+37.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
over 7under 12avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
California
13-5 overall · 2-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Carolina84–78
- Lvs Duke56–71
- L@ Virginia Tech75–78
- L@ Virginia60–84
- Wvs Notre Dame72–71
A week or more of rest.
Stanford
14-5 overall · 3-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke50–80
- Wvs North Carolina95–90
- L@ Virginia55–70
- W@ Virginia Tech69–68
- Wvs Louisville80–76
A week or more of rest.