First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -9.5✓ USM covered by 4.5
ARST -9.5✓ USM covered by 4.5Closing total158.5Over by 14.5
 USM | This season | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| 13-14 | Record | 16-11 |
| 12-15 | ATS | 14-13 |
| 15-12 | O/U | 14-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 75–83 ARST · ✓ ARST (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 44 | 40 | 84 |
| ARST | 53 | 36 | 89 |
1st half: USM 44, ARST 53 (ARST by 9). The model had ARST by 4.6 and a total of 74.2 (actual 97).
Team stats
| USM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-67 51% | Field goals | 24-60 40% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 11-21 52% | Free throws | 36-46 78% |
| 36 13 off | Rebounds | 42 19 off |
| 21 | Assists | 13 |
| 10 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 32 | Fouls | 17 |
| 56 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 39 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 38 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 8-17 | 1-3 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 26 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8-17 | 0-2 |
| Djahi Binet F | 23 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 8-11 | 0-0 |
| Israel Hart G | 17 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Curt Lewis G | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tegra Izay C | 17 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brewer Carruth, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Jett Montgomery, EJ Paymon, Blake Lander, Fallou Diagne, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hampton G | 35 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 7-13 | 1-1 |
| Christian Harmon G | 31 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Chandler Jackson G | 26 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4-12 | 0-1 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 26 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 21 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-12 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Joey Chammaa G | 23 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 19 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Rho Omed, Fredy-Salam Sylla, Royal Blue Smith, Tim Matthews, Weston Honeycutt, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett, Chudi Dioramma
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARST -9.5
ModelARST -7.9
Model edgeUSM +1.6
W USM covered
Total
Market158.5
Model158.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
W Over
Projected score
USM 75.4 · ARST 83.4
USM 84 · ARST 89
Win probability
ARST 76%
1st half
Spread
ARST -4.6
ARST -9.0
Total
74.2
97 points
Projected score
USM 34.8 · ARST 39.4
USM 44 · ARST 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -9.5
no move
CloseARST -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
▲ 1
Close158.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +350 · ARST -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -9.5 · unchangedmodel ARST -8
model ARST -8
Opened 157.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ARST | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
USM 3–4 ARSTARST leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ARST has won the last 4 meetings · USM 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025-26 | ARST 93 @ USM 86 | USM +1.5 | ARST W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | USM 67 @ ARST 101 | ARST -15.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | ARST 81 @ USM 68 | USM +9.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | USM 71 @ ARST 78 | ARST -4.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | ARST 66 @ USM 69 | USM +2.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
27 games played
Straight up
13-14
48% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-12
56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vsARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @ GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vs APP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vs JMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ MRSH | L 77-81 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 7 | vs KENT | W 66-65 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 12 | vs USA | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsTROY | W 69-65 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 21 | vs ODU | W 86-81 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+6.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
+5.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
−7.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
+9.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+0.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
4
@MRSH
MRSHL 77-81
+9.5
7
vsKENT
KENTW 66-65
−19.5
12
vsUSA
USAL 78-84
+26.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 69-65
−10.5
21
vsODU
ODUW 86-81
+19.5
over 15under 12avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas St
27 games played
Straight up
16-11
59% wins
Against the spread
14-13
52% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-13
52% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @USM | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vsJMU | L 74-78 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vsTROY | W 86-74 | -4.5 | W +7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | vsTXST | W 83-82 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 15 | @USA | L 87-91 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | @TROY | L 74-99 | +3.5 | L −21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 22 | @ GASO | W 85-68 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 172.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 24 | @GAST | L 81-82 | -4.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 28 | vsODU | L 71-75 | -9.5 | L −13.5 | 159.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | vsMRSH | L 61-70 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 165.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 4 | @CCU | W 70-66 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | vs BGSU | W 91-54 | -2.5 | W +34.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | vsULM | W 103-70 | -20.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 14 | vsUSA | L 88-92 | -8.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 19 | @UL | W 79-62 | -8.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 21 | @ULM | W 102-94 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | O 196 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+5.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−14.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
+7.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
−10.5
15
@USA
USAL 87-91
−8.5
17
@TROY
TROYL 74-99
−21.5
22
@GASO
GASOW 85-68
+15.5
24
@GAST
GASTL 81-82
−5.5
28
vsODU
ODUL 71-75
−13.5
31
vsMRSH
MRSHL 61-70
−12.5
4
@CCU
CCUW 70-66
−0.5
7
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-54
+34.5
11
vsULM
ULMW 103-70
+12.5
14
vsUSA
USAL 88-92
−12.5
19
@UL
ULW 79-62
+8.5
21
@ULM
ULMW 102-94
−7.5
covered 14didn’t cover 13avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+23.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−6.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
−0.5
10
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-82
+8.5
15
@USA
USAL 87-91
+23.5
17
@TROY
TROYL 74-99
+7.5
22
@GASO
GASOW 85-68
−19.5
24
@GAST
GASTL 81-82
+5.5
28
vsODU
ODUL 71-75
−13.5
31
vsMRSH
MRSHL 61-70
−34.5
4
@CCU
CCUW 70-66
−15.5
7
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-54
−9.5
11
vsULM
ULMW 103-70
+10.5
14
vsUSA
USAL 88-92
+30.5
19
@UL
ULW 79-62
−3.5
21
@ULM
ULMW 102-94
+30.5
over 14under 13avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
13-14 overall · 8-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Old Dominion86–81
- Wvs Troy69–65
- Lvs South Alabama78–84
- Wvs Kent State66–65
- L@ Marshall77–81
3 days since their last game.
Arkansas St
16-11 overall · 9-7 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe102–94
- W@ Louisiana79–62
- Lvs South Alabama88–92
- Wvs UL Monroe103–70
- Wvs Bowling Green91–54
3 days since their last game.