Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
AUB -5.5✓ MSST covered by 11.5
AUB -5.5✓ MSST covered by 11.5Closing total155.5Over by 20.5
| AUB | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 14-11 | Record | 12-13 |
| 12-13 | ATS | 9-16 |
| 14-11 | O/U | 12-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AUB 85–78 MSST · ✗ AUB (73%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 33 | 52 | 85 |
| MSST | 49 | 42 | 91 |
1st half: AUB 33, MSST 49 (MSST by 16). The model had AUB by 4.3 and a total of 76.0 (actual 82).
Team stats
| AUB | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-62 39% | Field goals | 31-62 50% |
| 12-26 46% | 3-pointers | 16-30 53% |
| 25-31 81% | Free throws | 13-17 76% |
| 41 17 off | Rebounds | 34 9 off |
| 12 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 11 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 23 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Hall F | 40 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 8-17 | 4-7 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 36 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 7-17 | 3-9 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 32 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 32 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Kevin Overton G | 28 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4-12 | 4-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elyjah Freeman G | 19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| Filip Jovic C | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Drake Cardwell, Kaden Magwood, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Abdul Bashir, CJ Williams, Joah Shay, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 39 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 15-27 | 10-16 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 35 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Jayden Epps G | 33 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 5-14 | 3-6 |
| Achor Achor F | 29 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 24 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 12 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Sergej Macura F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amier Ali, Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Brandon Walker, Dellquan Warren, Gai Chol
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -3.5
2 → AUB
CloseAUB -5.5
2 pts toward AUB
Total
Open153.5
▲ 2
Close155.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
AUB -238 · MSST +195
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -3.5 · closed AUB -5.5 · moved 2 toward AUBmodel AUB -7
model AUB -7
Opened 153.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 2 upmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | AUB -5.5 | AUB -7.0 | AUB +1.5 | L MSST covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 162.6 | Over 7.1 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | AUB 84.8 · MSST 77.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | AUB -4.3 | MSST -16.0 |
| 1H total | 76.0 | 82 |
| 1H projected score | AUB 40.2 · MSST 35.8 | AUB 33 · MSST 49 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| MSST | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
AUB 5–1 MSSTAUB leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · AUB has won the last 3 meetings · AUB 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | MSST 66 @ AUB 88 | AUB -7.5 | AUB W |
| Mar 16, 2023-24 | MSST 66 vs AUB 73 | AUB -7.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | MSST 63 @ AUB 78 | AUB -10.5 | AUB W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | AUB 58 @ MSST 64 | MSST +2.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | MSST 63 @ AUB 69 | AUB -7.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Auburn
25 games played
Straight up
14-11
56% wins
Against the spread
12-13
48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-11
56% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vs TA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @ MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vs SC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | vs TEX | W 88-82 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @ TENN | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | vs ALA | L 92-96 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 10 | vs VAN | L 76-84 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 14 | @ARK | L 75-88 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
−0.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−2.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
−6.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−11.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−5.5
covered 12didn’t cover 13avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
+15.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
+12.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−1.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−2.5
over 14under 11avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
25 games played
Straight up
12-13
48% wins
Against the spread
9-16
36% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-13
48% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vsMISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vsVAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vsARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 11 | vsTENN | L 64-73 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | @MISS | W 90-78 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−0.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+15.5
covered 9didn’t cover 16avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
11
vsTENN
TENNL 64-73
−10.5
14
@MISS
MISSW 90-78
+21.5
over 12under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Auburn
14-11 overall · 5-7 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Arkansas75–88
- Lvs Vanderbilt76–84
- Lvs Alabama92–96
- L@ Tennessee69–77
- Wvs Texas88–82
4 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
12-13 overall · 4-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ole Miss90–78
- Lvs Tennessee64–73
- Lvs Arkansas68–88
- L@ Missouri79–84
- W@ LSU80–66
4 days since their last game.