When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
20 games · 2024 · Washington Commanders · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 13 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 35% of games.
All 20 games
2024 · Washington Commanders · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -6.5 | 47.5 | 17425778 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 23–55 |
2024 · Postseason |
DET -8.5 | 55.5 | 10525976 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 45–31 |
2024 · Postseason |
TB -3.5 | 51.5 | 3203043 | U | WSH Q4 | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 17 |
WSH -3.5 | 46.5 | 1424314854 | Q4 | WSH OT Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 16 |
PHI -4.5 | 47.5 | 28354169 | Q4 | WSH Q4 | 33–36 |
2024 · Week 15 |
WSH -7.5 | 44.5 | 7142439 | U | NO Q4 | 20–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
WSH -5.5 | 45.5 | 21354161 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 19–42 |
2024 · Week 12 |
WSH -10.5 | 44.5 | 361960 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
34–26 |
2024 · Week 11 |
PHI -4.5 | 49.5 | 7101644 | U | PHI Q4 Late cover flip |
18–26 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
WSH -3.5 | 42.5 | 7283449 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
27–22 |
2024 · Week 8 |
WSH -1.5 | 46.5 | 691933 | U | WSH Q1 | 15–18 |
2024 · Week 7 |
WSH -10.5 | 50.5 | 10273747 | U | WSH Q2 | 7–40 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BAL -7.5 | 50.5 | 6274053 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–30 |
2024 · Week 5 |
WSH -3.5 | 43.5 | 7274047 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 13–34 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ARI -3.5 | 48.5 | 14244156 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 42–14 |
2024 · Week 3 |
CIN -7.5 | 46.5 | 14344871 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 38–33 |
2024 · Week 2 |
WSH -1.5 | 42.5 | 9212739 | U | WSH Q3 Late cover flip |
18–21 |
2024 · Week 1 |
TB -3.5 | 41.5 | 6233757 | Q4 | TB Q1 | 20–37 |
WSH
PHI
DET
TB
DAL
ATL
NO
TEN
PIT
NYG
CHI
CAR
BAL
CLE
ARI
CINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 55% 11
Q2 5% 1
Q3 5% 1
Q4 30% 6
OT 5% 1
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 61% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 60% of 20 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.