When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
20 games · 2024 · Kansas City Chiefs · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 11% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 10% of games.
All 20 games
2024 · Kansas City Chiefs · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -1.5 | 48.5 | 7244062 | Q4 | PHI Q1 Late over |
22–40 |
2024 · Postseason |
KC -2.5 | 49.5 | 10374361 | Q4 | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
29–32 |
2024 · Postseason |
KC -9.5 | 41.5 | 9192537 | U | HOU Q1 | 14–23 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DEN -11.5 | 40.5 | 14243138 | U | DEN Q1 | 0–38 |
2024 · Week 17 |
KC -1.5 | 45.5 | 13202639 | U | KC Q1 | 29–10 |
2024 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 42.5 | 10274046 | Q4 | KC Q1 | 19–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
KC -3.5 | 41.5 | 7142828 | U | KC Q1 | 21–7 |
2024 · Week 14 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 3132736 | U | LAC Q3 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
KC -13.5 | 41.5 | 3132636 | U | LV Q1 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 12 |
KC -11.5 | 42.5 | 13294357 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BUF -2.5 | 47.5 | 6303051 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
21–30 |
2024 · Week 10 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 0242730 | U | DEN Q1 | 14–16 |
2024 · Week 9 |
KC -8.5 | 45.5 | 317274854 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 8 |
KC -8.5 | 42.5 | 14273047 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 7 |
SF -2.5 | 47.5 | 3202646 | U | KC Q2 | 28–18 |
2024 · Week 5 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 7232339 | U | KC Q1 | 13–26 |
2024 · Week 4 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 10172027 | U | LAC Q1 | 17–10 |
2024 · Week 3 |
KC -3.5 | 46.5 | 7273639 | U | KC Q3 | 22–17 |
2024 · Week 2 |
KC -6.5 | 47.5 | 6263951 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Lead lost |
25–26 |
2024 · Week 1 |
KC -2.5 | 45.5 | 14233047 | Q4 | KC Q2 Late over |
20–27 |
KC
PHI
BUF
HOU
DEN
PIT
CLE
LAC
LV
CAR
TB
SF
NO
ATL
CIN
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 70% 14
Q2 10% 2
Q3 10% 2
Q4 10% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 65% of 20 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 74% and covered 74% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.