When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
20 games · 2024 · Buffalo Bills · pick one to list those games
70% went over. Of the 14 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 30% of games.
All 20 games
2024 · Buffalo Bills · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -2.5 | 49.5 | 10374361 | Q4 | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
29–32 |
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 14314052 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Postseason |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 10172838 | U | BUF Q3 | 7–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BUF -3.5 | 36.5 | 7243339 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
16–23 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BUF -10.5 | 44.5 | 7123354 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BUF -14.5 | 47.5 | 7213145 | U | NE Q1 | 21–24 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DET -2.5 | 55.5 | 14355690 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 48–42 |
2024 · Week 14 |
BUF -3.5 | 50.5 | 14385986 | Q3 | LAR Q1 | 42–44 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243845 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BUF -2.5 | 47.5 | 6303051 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
21–30 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13333350 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
30–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BUF -6.5 | 49.5 | 6163357 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–30 |
2024 · Week 8 |
BUF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7172741 | U | BUF Q1 | 31–10 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BUF -9.5 | 41.5 | 3172744 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late over |
10–34 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BUF -1.5 | 42.5 | 17374043 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 5 |
HOU -1.5 | 47.5 | 17203743 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 4 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 10243845 | U | BAL Q1 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13374757 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 10–47 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 49.5 | 14344141 | U | BUF Q1 | 31–10 |
2024 · Week 1 |
BUF -6.5 | 45.5 | 7274162 | Q4 | ARI Q4 | 28–34 |
BUF
KC
BAL
DEN
NE
NYJ
DET
LAR
SF
IND
MIA
SEA
TEN
HOU
JAX
ARIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 55% 11
Q2 10% 2
Q3 5% 1
Q4 30% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 95% of 20 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 95% and covered 79% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.