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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Little Rock @ North Florida

UNF Arena · at North Florida
#222LRLittle Rock
@
#333UNFNorth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LRThis seasonUNF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LR 79–75 · win probability LR 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

LR 3, UNF 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LR has played the 347th-hardest schedule, UNF the 168th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LRBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LR 18.4%, UNF 17.8%. Forced: LR 18.6%, UNF 12.8%
LRBig
LR offense vs UNF defense
Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LR plays 67.6 a game (248th fastest), UNF 72.3 (31st). Faster games mean more points
LRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LR 31.5%, UNF 25.2%. Defensive: LR 63.4%, UNF 62.4%
UNFSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LR 12%, UNF 45%. Transfers in: LR 8, UNF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UNFSmall
Home court
UNF at home. This season: UNF 0-0 at home, LR 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%; UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 31.0% and 51.7% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LR 27.7, UNF 28.8. Allowed: LR 33.1, UNF 31.4
Even
UNF offense vs LR defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LR 49.4 and allows 51.8; UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LR -4.0—
Total—154.5—
Projected score—LR 79.2 · UNF 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLR -2.5—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreLR 37.4 · UNF 34.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Little Rock has the better starters

Position by position: Little Rock 3, North Florida 0, even 2
Little RockBetterNorth Florida
G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62
LRSmall
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46
LRBig
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
Even
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80
LRBig
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
Little RockBetterNorth Florida
LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3
LRSmall
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2
Even
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
LRBig
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.3 · 4 players
UNFSmall
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestLR betterUNF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Little Rock
Guards
A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew
Forwards
B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LRUNF
Scoring
68.9 #300Points per game77.1 #112
1.02 #306Points per possession1.06 #218
67.6 #248Pace (possessions)72.3 #31
Shooting
49.4 #273Effective FG%52.9 #106
35.3 #963-point %35.0 #117
31.0 #3393-point attempt rate51.7 #7
27.7 #345Free throw rate28.8 #333
Possessions
18.4 #292Turnover rate17.8 #261
31.5 #143Offensive rebound rate25.2 #335
13.4 #183Assists per game13.4 #185
Defense
74.2 #160Points allowed89.6 #365
1.10 #217Points allowed per possession1.24 #364
51.8 #199Opponent effective FG%56.3 #349
34.4 #211Opponent 3-point %35.1 #253
18.6 #71Turnovers forced12.8 #360
63.4 #357Defensive rebound rate62.4 #361
7.5 #77Steals per game4.6 #352
4.4 #45Blocks per game1.4 #364
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
  • Lvs Morehead St70–76
  • Lvs SE Missouri65–70
  • Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.