Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 1, 9:30 AM ETPalazzo dello Sport · Neutral site

#71NDNotre Dame74▲ winner

Final

#32VILLVillanova72final

Closing lineVILL -7.5✓ ND covered by 9.5

Closing total145.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Notre Dame and Villanova
ND	This season	VILL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ND 73–80 VILL · ✗ VILL (73%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ND	31	43	74
VILL	35	37	72

1st half: ND 31, VILL 35 (VILL by 4). The model had VILL by 4.0 and a total of 71.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

ND		VILL
23-65 35%	Field goals	24-52 46%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	11-31 35%
19-25 76%	Free throws	13-18 72%
37 17 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
14	Assists	12
14	Steals	6
2	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	20
19	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	18
9	Fast-break points	10

Players

ND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braeden Shrewsberry G	36	15	6	3	6-14	3-8
Ethan Roberts G	32	11	2	0	3-8	1-3
Braeden Smith G	31	16	4	3	2-9	2-3
Brady Koehler F	25	16	8	1	6-13	1-4
Logan Duncomb C	21	9	3	4	4-7	1-2
Bench
Logan Imes G	15	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Tommy Ahneman C	13	4	6	0	1-6	0-0
Jonathan Sanderson G	10	3	1	2	1-6	1-3
Yoro Diallo F	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Devin Brown G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gan-Erdene Solongo, Brady Stevens, Luke Devine, Nick Shrewsberry, Jake Burow

VILL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Fiegen G	38	11	5	1	4-8	3-7
Tyler Perkins G	35	18	4	3	6-12	5-11
Devin Royal F	32	5	8	0	0-1	0-0
Luigi Suigo C	24	7	5	0	3-6	1-2
Darryl Simmons II G	15	5	1	3	2-7	1-6
Bench
Elijah Crawford G	25	12	3	5	4-7	0-0
Kwame Evans Jr. F	22	7	7	0	2-7	0-3
Adam Oumiddoch G	9	7	0	0	3-4	1-2

Did not play: Wade Chiddick, Nico Onyekwere, Brady Muller, Abdou Samb, Carter Fisk, Matt Hodge

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VILL -7.5	VILL -6.9	ND +0.6	W ND covered
Total	145.5	152.4	Over 6.9	W Over
Projected score	—	ND 72.8 · VILL 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VILL -4.0	VILL -4.0
1H total	71.3	66
1H projected score	ND 33.6 · VILL 37.6	ND 31 · VILL 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND LLWLL	15-16	48%	1-2	10-9
VILL LWWLL	19-14	58%	2-2	14-9

Venue/role: ND neutral site, as underdog; VILL neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OOOOO	22-9	71%	13-18
VILL UUOOO	20-13	61%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%
VILL	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Notre Dame

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

W W W L W L W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

W W L W L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

O O U U O U U U O O O O U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsRUTG	W 68-63	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsHOU	L 56-66	+11.5	W +1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsMIZ	W 76-71	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 5	@TCU	W 87-85	+6.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 10	vsIDHO	W 80-65	-11.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 145
Dec 13	vsEVAN	W 82-58	-14.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 21	vsPFW	L 69-72	-11.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 141
Dec 30	@STAN	W 47-40	+6.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 87
Jan 2	@CAL	L 71-72	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsCLEM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 13	vsMIA	L 69-81	+5.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 17	@VT	L 76-89	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 21	@UNC	L 69-91	+13.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsBC	W 68-64	-7.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 27	vsUVA	L 97-100	+9.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@SYR	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 4	@LOU	L 65-76	+19.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 7	vsFSU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 10	@SMU	L 81-89	+10.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 170
Feb 14	vsGT	W 89-74	-5.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 21	@PITT	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 24	vsDUKE	L 56-100	+16.5	L −27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsNCSU	W 96-90	+6.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 186
Mar 4	vsSTAN	L 78-86	+1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 164
Mar 7	@BC	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−1.5

HOU

L 56-66

+1.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+6.5

TCU

W 87-85

+8.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+3.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+9.5

PFW

L 69-72

−14.5

STAN

W 47-40

+13.5

CAL

L 71-72

+2.5

CLEM

L 61-76

−11.5

MIA

L 69-81

−6.5

L 76-89

−6.5

UNC

L 69-91

−8.5

W 68-64

−3.5

UVA

L 97-100

+6.5

SYR

L 72-86

−7.5

LOU

L 65-76

+8.5

FSU

L 79-82

−4.5

SMU

L 81-89

+2.5

W 89-74

+9.5

PITT

L 68-73

−1.5

DUKE

L 56-100

−27.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+12.5

STAN

L 78-86

−6.5

L 69-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

RUTG

W 68-63

−9.5

HOU

L 56-66

−10.5

MIZ

W 76-71

+0.5

TCU

W 87-85

+30.5

IDHO

W 80-65

+0.5

EVAN

W 82-58

+3.5

PFW

L 69-72

−8.5

STAN

W 47-40

−56.5

CAL

L 71-72

+4.5

CLEM

L 61-76

+3.5

MIA

L 69-81

+6.5

L 76-89

+21.5

UNC

L 69-91

+10.5

W 68-64

−5.5

UVA

L 97-100

+51.5

SYR

L 72-86

+10.5

LOU

L 65-76

−14.5

FSU

L 79-82

+6.5

SMU

L 81-89

+15.5

W 89-74

+12.5

PITT

L 68-73

+0.5

DUKE

L 56-100

+14.5

NCSU

W 96-90

+32.5

STAN

L 78-86

+16.5

L 69-77

+4.5

over 22under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Villanova

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W W W W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W W W L W L W W L W W W L W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1361%

U O U O U O U O U O U U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBYU	L 66-71	+9.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsQUC	W 94-74	-17.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsSHU	W 94-60	-19.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsDUQ	W 87-77	-10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	@LAS	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 25	vsODU	W 89-75	-22.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 164
Dec 1	vsTEM	W 74-56	-14.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 6	vsPENN	W 90-63	-18.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 9	@MICH	L 61-89	+17.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	vsPITT	W 79-61	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsWIS	W 76-66	+3.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 23	@HALL	W 64-56	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 31	vsDEP	W 71-66	-12.5	L −7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@BTLR	W 85-67	+2.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 152
Jan 7	vsCREI	L 72-76	-4.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MARQ	W 76-73	-3.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@PROV	W 88-82	-2.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 170
Jan 17	vsSJU	L 79-86	+2.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 21	vsGTWN	W 66-51	-8.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 117
Jan 24	@CONN	L 67-75	+11.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 30	vsPROV	W 87-73	-8.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 160
Feb 4	vsHALL	W 72-60	-5.5	W +6.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 7	@GTWN	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsMARQ	W 77-74	-9.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@CREI	W 80-69	-1.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 17	@XAV	W 92-89	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsCONN	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsBTLR	W 82-73	-10.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 28	@SJU	L 57-89	+7.5	L −24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 4	@DEP	W 76-57	-1.5	W +17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsXAV	W 91-78	-11.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsGTWN	L 64-78	-7.5	L −21.5	140.5	O 142
Mar 20	vsUSU	L 76-86	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

+4.5

QUC

W 94-74

+2.5

SHU

W 94-60

+14.5

DUQ

W 87-77

−0.5

LAS

W 70-55

+2.5

ODU

W 89-75

−8.5

TEM

W 74-56

+3.5

PENN

W 90-63

+8.5

MICH

L 61-89

−10.5

PITT

W 79-61

+7.5

WIS

W 76-66

+13.5

HALL

W 64-56

+9.5

DEP

W 71-66

−7.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+20.5

CREI

L 72-76

−8.5

MARQ

W 76-73

−0.5

PROV

W 88-82

+3.5

SJU

L 79-86

−4.5

GTWN

W 66-51

+6.5

CONN

L 67-75

+3.5

PROV

W 87-73

+5.5

HALL

W 72-60

+6.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+4.5

MARQ

W 77-74

−6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+9.5

XAV

W 92-89

−1.5

CONN

L 63-73

−6.5

BTLR

W 82-73

−1.5

SJU

L 57-89

−24.5

DEP

W 76-57

+17.5

XAV

W 91-78

+1.5

GTWN

L 64-78

−21.5

USU

L 76-86

−8.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

−16.5

QUC

W 94-74

+17.5

SHU

W 94-60

−6.5

DUQ

W 87-77

+12.5

LAS

W 70-55

−19.5

ODU

W 89-75

+16.5

TEM

W 74-56

−16.5

PENN

W 90-63

+2.5

MICH

L 61-89

−6.5

PITT

W 79-61

+1.5

WIS

W 76-66

−10.5

HALL

W 64-56

−15.5

DEP

W 71-66

−2.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+2.5

CREI

L 72-76

+5.5

MARQ

W 76-73

+2.5

PROV

W 88-82

+13.5

SJU

L 79-86

+17.5

GTWN

W 66-51

−25.5

CONN

L 67-75

+4.5

PROV

W 87-73

+2.5

HALL

W 72-60

−2.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+12.5

MARQ

W 77-74

+6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+3.5

XAV

W 92-89

+28.5

CONN

L 63-73

−5.5

BTLR

W 82-73

+7.5

SJU

L 57-89

−1.5

DEP

W 76-57

−2.5

XAV

W 91-78

+15.5

GTWN

L 64-78

+1.5

USU

L 76-86

+15.5

over 20under 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Notre Dame

Villanova

Notre Dame

Villanova