The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota
Line
MINN -26.5no move
Total147.5up 1 from 146.5
| This season | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MINN 82–58 · win probability MINN 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MINN -26.5
no move since the open
Total
147.5
model 140.0 · Under by 7.5
Model edge
UND by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
95% UND
95% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges
UND 1, MINN 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UND offense vs MINN defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings
MINN offense vs UND defense
Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Shooting
Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: UND 19.3%, MINN 16.8%
Free throws
Free throw rate: UND 37.9, MINN 35.8. Allowed: UND 43.8, MINN 26.9
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points
Three-pointers
UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 40.6% and 47.1% of their shots
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: UND 2, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, MINN 70.5%
Home court
MINN at home. This season: MINN 0-0 at home, UND 0-0 away
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 20 or more | 1165 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 1090 | 99% | 50% | 52% |
| Games with a total of 145 to 149.5 | 3547 | 74% | 49% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenMINN -26.5
no move
NowMINN -26.5
No change since the open
Total
Open146.5
▲ 1
Now147.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UND +2650 · MINN -9500
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MINN -26.5 · now MINN -26 · moved 0.5 toward UNDmodel MINN -24.5
model MINN -24.5
Opened 146.5 · now 147 · moved 0.5 upmodel 140
model 140
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 147.5TotalUnder 147.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
7 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UND | MINN | Over | Under | UND | MINN | |
| BetMGMMGM | -26.5-115 | +26.5-105 | 147.5-105 | 147.5-115 | +2800 | -10000 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -26-110 | +26-110 | 147-110 | 147-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -25.5-113 | +25.5-113 | 146.5-114 | 146.5-112 | — | — |
| BetUSBetUS | -26-110 | +26-110 | 147-110 | 147-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -26-110 | +26-110 | 147-115 | 147-105 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | -26.5-115 | +26.5-105 | 147.5-105 | 147.5-115 | +2500 | -9000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -26-106 | +26-106 | 147-108 | 147-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MINN -26.5 | MINN -24.5 | UND +2.0 |
| Total | 147.5 | 140.0 | Under 7.5 |
| Projected score | — | UND 57.7 · MINN 82.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MINN -14.5 | — |
| 1H total | 65.5 | — |
| 1H projected score | UND 25.5 · MINN 40 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | |
| 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Dakota
32 games played
Straight up
15-17
47% wins
Against the spread
21-11
66% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-17
47% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 62-91 | +36.5 | W +7.5 | 170.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 6 | vs | L 70-74 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 9 | vs | L 85-93 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 15 | @ | W 76-74 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 19 | @ | L 60-75 | +29.5 | W +14.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 22 | vs | L 58-75 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 23 | @ | W 78-69 | -2.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 28 | @ | L 55-92 | +18.5 | L −18.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 3 | @ | L 58-90 | +11.5 | L −20.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs | L 75-79 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 13 | vs | L 66-69 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 18 | vs | W 90-88 | +12.5 | W +14.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Dec 21 | @ | L 55-78 | +29.5 | W +6.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 1 | vs | W 72-61 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 3 | vs | W 90-87 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 8 | @ | L 79-90 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | @ | W 81-79 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 15 | vs | L 80-91 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | vs | W 96-80 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 22 | @ | W 79-62 | +1.5 | W +18.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 24 | @ | W 93-86 | +5.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 29 | @ | W 81-80 | +11.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 5 | vs | W 76-73 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 79-98 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 11 | @ | W 72-71 | +2.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 66-83 | +5.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 19 | vs | W 85-70 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 83-91 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 28 | @ | L 63-96 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 6 | vs | W 83-67 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 160.5 | U 150 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 67-66 | +11.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 8 | vs | L 62-70 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
ALA
L 62-91
+7.5
6
vs
UCR
L 70-74
−5.5
9
vs
CSUN
L 85-93
−1.5
15
@
UCR
W 76-74
+5.5
19
@
CREI
L 60-75
+14.5
22
vs
CCU
L 58-75
−13.5
23
@
WIU
W 78-69
+6.5
28
@
HAW
L 55-92
−18.5
3
@
IDHO
L 58-90
−20.5
6
vs
MONT
L 75-79
+1.5
13
vs
WIU
L 66-69
−10.5
18
vs
WIN
W 90-88
+14.5
21
@
NEB
L 55-78
+6.5
1
vs
ORU
W 72-61
+9.5
3
vs
SDST
W 90-87
+10.5
8
@
OMA
L 79-90
−5.5
10
@
KC
W 81-79
+3.5
15
vs
STMN
L 80-91
−0.5
17
vs
SDAK
W 96-80
+14.5
22
@
ORU
W 79-62
+18.5
24
@
DEN
W 93-86
+12.5
29
@
STMN
W 81-80
+12.5
5
vs
OMA
W 76-73
+1.5
7
vs
DEN
L 79-98
−22.5
11
@
SDAK
W 72-71
+3.5
14
vs
NDSU
L 66-83
−11.5
19
vs
KC
W 85-70
+5.5
21
@
SDST
L 83-91
+1.5
28
@
NDSU
L 63-96
−21.5
6
vs
DEN
W 83-67
+18.5
7
vs
STMN
W 67-66
+12.5
8
vs
NDSU
L 62-70
+3.5
covered 21didn’t cover 11avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
ALA
L 62-91
−17.5
6
vs
UCR
L 70-74
−2.5
9
vs
CSUN
L 85-93
+19.5
15
@
UCR
W 76-74
+1.5
19
@
CREI
L 60-75
−20.5
22
vs
CCU
L 58-75
−14.5
23
@
WIU
W 78-69
+0.5
28
@
HAW
L 55-92
−2.5
3
@
IDHO
L 58-90
−3.5
6
vs
MONT
L 75-79
−0.5
13
vs
WIU
L 66-69
−10.5
18
vs
WIN
W 90-88
+20.5
21
@
NEB
L 55-78
−18.5
1
vs
ORU
W 72-61
−15.5
3
vs
SDST
W 90-87
+24.5
8
@
OMA
L 79-90
+22.5
10
@
KC
W 81-79
+13.5
15
vs
STMN
L 80-91
+19.5
17
vs
SDAK
W 96-80
+15.5
22
@
ORU
W 79-62
−8.5
24
@
DEN
W 93-86
+16.5
29
@
STMN
W 81-80
+8.5
5
vs
OMA
W 76-73
−1.5
7
vs
DEN
L 79-98
+15.5
11
@
SDAK
W 72-71
−13.5
14
vs
NDSU
L 66-83
−0.5
19
vs
KC
W 85-70
+4.5
21
@
SDST
L 83-91
+22.5
28
@
NDSU
L 63-96
+6.5
6
vs
DEN
W 83-67
−10.5
7
vs
STMN
W 67-66
−20.5
8
vs
NDSU
L 62-70
−15.5
over 15under 17avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Minnesota
33 games played
Straight up
15-18
45% wins
Against the spread
13-20
39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-21
36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Against the spread
13-2039%
4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs | W 87-60 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 8 | vs | W 95-50 | -31.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 12 | @ | L 60-83 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | vs | W 72-65 | -25.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 18 | vs | W 66-54 | -27.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 22 | vs | L 65-77 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs | L 75-86 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 3 | vs | W 73-64 | +7.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ | L 57-85 | +19.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 14 | vs | W 89-53 | -21.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 21 | vs | W 78-50 | -13.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 29 | vs | W 60-43 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 103 |
| Jan 3 | @ | W 84-78 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs | W 70-67 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 9 | vs | L 69-70 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs | L 75-78 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 17 | @ | L 67-77 | +15.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 20 | @ | L 74-82 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 57-76 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 28 | @ | L 63-67 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 1 | @ | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 4 | vs | W 76-73 | +8.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 8 | vs | L 62-67 | -10.5 | L −15.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 14 | @ | L 57-69 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 17 | @ | W 61-44 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 136.5 | U 105 |
| Feb 21 | vs | W 80-61 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 24 | @ | L 67-77 | +22.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 28 | vs | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 4 | @ | L 47-77 | +7.5 | L −22.5 | 138.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 7 | vs | W 67-66 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 11 | vs | L 67-72 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
| Apr 1 | vs | L 48-67 | +3.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | U 115 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
GWEB
W 87-60
−1.5
8
vs
ALCN
W 95-50
+13.5
12
@
MIZ
L 60-83
−15.5
15
vs
GB
W 72-65
−18.5
18
vs
CHST
W 66-54
−15.5
22
vs
SF
L 65-77
−13.5
27
vs
STAN
L 68-72
−1.5
28
vs
SCU
L 75-86
−5.5
3
vs
IU
W 73-64
+16.5
10
@
PUR
L 57-85
−8.5
14
vs
TXSO
W 89-53
+14.5
21
vs
CAM
W 78-50
+14.5
29
vs
FDU
W 60-43
−8.5
3
@
NU
W 84-78
+10.5
6
vs
IOWA
W 70-67
+7.5
9
vs
USC
L 69-70
−4.5
13
vs
WIS
L 75-78
−1.5
17
@
ILL
L 67-77
+5.5
20
@
OSU
L 74-82
−0.5
24
vs
NEB
L 57-76
−14.5
28
@
WIS
L 63-67
+5.5
1
@
PSU
L 75-77
−4.5
4
vs
MSU
W 76-73
+11.5
8
vs
MD
L 62-67
−15.5
14
@
WASH
L 57-69
−5.5
17
@
ORE
W 61-44
+20.5
21
vs
RUTG
W 80-61
+10.5
24
@
MICH
L 67-77
+12.5
28
vs
UCLA
W 78-73
+6.5
4
@
IU
L 47-77
−22.5
7
vs
NU
W 67-66
−3.5
11
vs
RUTG
L 67-72
−11.5
1
vs
BAY
L 48-67
−15.5
covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vs
GWEB
W 87-60
−1.5
8
vs
ALCN
W 95-50
−7.5
12
@
MIZ
L 60-83
−15.5
15
vs
GB
W 72-65
−9.5
18
vs
CHST
W 66-54
−24.5
22
vs
SF
L 65-77
+1.5
27
vs
STAN
L 68-72
−2.5
28
vs
SCU
L 75-86
+22.5
3
vs
IU
W 73-64
−7.5
10
@
PUR
L 57-85
−1.5
14
vs
TXSO
W 89-53
−2.5
21
vs
CAM
W 78-50
−17.5
29
vs
FDU
W 60-43
−36.5
3
@
NU
W 84-78
+23.5
6
vs
IOWA
W 70-67
+6.5
9
vs
USC
L 69-70
−8.5
13
vs
WIS
L 75-78
+6.5
17
@
ILL
L 67-77
+1.5
20
@
OSU
L 74-82
+12.5
24
vs
NEB
L 57-76
−7.5
28
@
WIS
L 63-67
−16.5
1
@
PSU
L 75-77
+9.5
4
vs
MSU
W 76-73
+12.5
8
vs
MD
L 62-67
−9.5
14
@
WASH
L 57-69
−12.5
17
@
ORE
W 61-44
−31.5
21
vs
RUTG
W 80-61
+4.5
24
@
MICH
L 67-77
−1.5
28
vs
UCLA
W 78-73
+14.5
4
@
IU
L 47-77
−14.5
7
vs
NU
W 67-66
−0.5
11
vs
RUTG
L 67-72
+3.5
1
vs
BAY
L 48-67
−31.5
over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Minnesota has the better starters
Position by position: North Dakota 0, Minnesota 3, even 2
North DakotaBetterMinnesota
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 23
→MINNBig
G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 64
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 11
→MINNSmall
G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 43
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 65
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 81
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 1
→MINNBig
F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 59
North DakotaBetterMinnesota
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
→MINNBig
MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
→MINNBig
MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
→MINNBig
Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
→MINNBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
=No call
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUND betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
Guards
I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR
Forwards
B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew
Centers
M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 74.2 #187 | Points per game | 69.4 #294 |
| 1.07 #214 | Points per possession | 1.10 #147 |
| 69.7 #133 | Pace (possessions) | 63.6 #362 |
| Shooting | ||
| 49.5 #272 | Effective FG% | 53.9 #69 |
| 32.7 #246 | 3-point % | 34.1 #164 |
| 40.6 #155 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #31 |
| 37.9 #106 | Free throw rate | 35.8 #159 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.1 #27 | Turnover rate | 16.6 #170 |
| 27.4 #284 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.8 #304 |
| 10.8 #343 | Assists per game | 17.0 #25 |
| Defense | ||
| 79.6 #310 | Points allowed | 68.5 #38 |
| 1.14 #306 | Points allowed per possession | 1.07 #139 |
| 56.5 #353 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.9 #207 |
| 37.1 #345 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.6 #229 |
| 19.3 #36 | Turnovers forced | 16.8 #168 |
| 67.6 #276 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.5 #137 |
| 7.9 #49 | Steals per game | 6.3 #197 |
| 2.5 #307 | Blocks per game | 2.7 #284 |
North Dakota
15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs N Dakota St62–70
- Wvs St Thomas67–66
- Wvs Denver83–67
- L@ N Dakota St63–96
- L@ S Dakota St83–91
A week or more of rest.
Minnesota
15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Baylor48–67
- Lvs Rutgers67–72
- Wvs Northwestern67–66
- L@ Indiana47–77
- Wvs UCLA78–73
A week or more of rest.