The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota
#336UNDNorth Dakota
@
#70MINNMinnesota
LineMINN -26.5no move
Total147.5up 1 from 146.5
Season records: North Dakota and Minnesota
UNDThis seasonMINN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MINN 82–58 · win probability MINN 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MINN -26.5
no move since the open
Total
147.5
model 140.0 · Under by 7.5
Model edge
UND by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
95% UND
95% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

UND 1, MINN 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MINNBig
UND offense vs MINN defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings
MINNBig
MINN offense vs UND defense
Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UND has played the 293rd-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less
MINNBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UND 49.5 and allows 56.5; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9
UNDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UND 14.1%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: UND 19.3%, MINN 16.8%
MINNBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UND 37.9, MINN 35.8. Allowed: UND 43.8, MINN 26.9
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UND plays 69.7 a game (133rd fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points
MINNSmall
Three-pointers
UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 40.6% and 47.1% of their shots
MINNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UND 24%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: UND 2, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MINNSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UND 27.4%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: UND 67.6%, MINN 70.5%
MINNSmall
Home court
MINN at home. This season: MINN 0-0 at home, UND 0-0 away

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UND +2650 · MINN -9500
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MINN -26.5 · now MINN -26 · moved 0.5 toward UNDmodel MINN -24.5
Opened 146.5 · now 147 · moved 0.5 upmodel 140
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
UND +26.5SpreadMINN -26.5
Bets
Money
Over 147.5TotalUnder 147.5
Bets
Money
UNDWinnerMINN
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
UNDMINNOverUnderUNDMINN
BetMGMMGM-26.5-115+26.5-105147.5-105147.5-115+2800-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-26-110+26-110147-110147-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-25.5-113+25.5-113146.5-114146.5-112——
BetUSBetUS-26-110+26-110147-110147-110——
BovadaBovada-26-110+26-110147-115147-105——
DraftKingsDK-26.5-115+26.5-105147.5-105147.5-115+2500-9000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-26-106+26-106147-108147-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMINN -26.5MINN -24.5UND +2.0
Total147.5140.0Under 7.5
Projected score—UND 57.7 · MINN 82.3

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMINN -14.5—
1H total65.5—
1H projected scoreUND 25.5 · MINN 40—

Minnesota has the better starters

Position by position: North Dakota 0, Minnesota 3, even 2
North DakotaBetterMinnesota
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
MINNBig
G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
MINNSmall
G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1
MINNBig
F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59
North DakotaBetterMinnesota
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
MINNBig
MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
MINNBig
MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
MINNBig
Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
MINNBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUND betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Dakota
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
Minnesota
Guards
I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR
Forwards
B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew
Centers
M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNDMINN
Scoring
74.2 #187Points per game69.4 #294
1.07 #214Points per possession1.10 #147
69.7 #133Pace (possessions)63.6 #362
Shooting
49.5 #272Effective FG%53.9 #69
32.7 #2463-point %34.1 #164
40.6 #1553-point attempt rate47.1 #31
37.9 #106Free throw rate35.8 #159
Possessions
14.1 #27Turnover rate16.6 #170
27.4 #284Offensive rebound rate26.8 #304
10.8 #343Assists per game17.0 #25
Defense
79.6 #310Points allowed68.5 #38
1.14 #306Points allowed per possession1.07 #139
56.5 #353Opponent effective FG%51.9 #207
37.1 #345Opponent 3-point %34.6 #229
19.3 #36Turnovers forced16.8 #168
67.6 #276Defensive rebound rate70.5 #137
7.9 #49Steals per game6.3 #197
2.5 #307Blocks per game2.7 #284

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St62–70
  • Wvs St Thomas67–66
  • Wvs Denver83–67
  • L@ N Dakota St63–96
  • L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Baylor48–67
  • Lvs Rutgers67–72
  • Wvs Northwestern67–66
  • L@ Indiana47–77
  • Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.