1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. UIW @ OKST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Gallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#45OKSTOklahoma St
LineOKST -27.5moved 1 toward OKST
Total159.5no move
UIWThis seasonOKST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 92–66 · win probability OKST 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
OKST -27.5
moved 1 toward OKST
Total
159.5
model 158.0 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
UIW by 2
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKST has more of the edges

UIW 1, OKST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OKSTBig
OKST offense vs UIW defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, OKST the 60th. A record against a soft schedule means less
OKSTBig
UIW offense vs OKST defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
OKSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, OKST 39.4. Allowed: UIW 41.6, OKST 31.4
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), OKST 74.8 (6th). Faster games mean more points
UIWSmall
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 39.1% and 35.5% of their shots
OKSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1
OKSTSmall
Home court
OKST at home. This season: OKST 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
OKSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, OKST 41%. Transfers in: UIW 5, OKST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, OKST 15.7%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, OKST 15.7%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, OKST 30.8%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, OKST 69.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5155574%51%49%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward OKST
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
UIW +3500 · OKST -20000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened OKST -26.5 · now OKST -27.5 · moved 1 toward OKSTmodel OKST -25.5
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 158
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 159.5TotalUnder 159.5
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
UIWOKSTOverUnderUIWOKST
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-27.5-110+27.5-110159.5-110159.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-29.5-118+29.5-107160.5-107160.5-118——
BovadaBovada-27.5-110+27.5-110159.5-110159.5-110——
FanDuelFD-27.5-110+27.5-110159.5-115159.5-105+5500-50000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-27.5-106+27.5-106159.5-108159.5-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadOKST -27.5OKST -25.5UIW +2.0
Total159.5158.0Under 1.5
Projected score—UIW 66.3 · OKST 91.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOKST -15.0—
1H total73.8—
1H projected scoreUIW 29.4 · OKST 44.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, Oklahoma St 3, even 2
Incarnate WordBetterOklahoma St
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
OKSTBig
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
OKSTBig
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
OKSTSmall
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
Incarnate WordBetterOklahoma St
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
OKSTBig
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
OKSTBig
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
OKSTBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
OKSTSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterOKST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWOKST
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game83.9 #21
1.07 #206Points per possession1.12 #110
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)74.8 #6
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%52.0 #144
36.1 #543-point %33.9 #176
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate35.5 #260
34.0 #210Free throw rate39.4 #70
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate15.7 #117
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate30.8 #169
10.8 #342Assists per game14.6 #113
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed83.2 #349
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession1.12 #265
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%53.1 #272
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %36.0 #304
15.8 #233Turnovers forced15.7 #240
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate69.7 #178
5.1 #329Steals per game7.1 #120
2.4 #310Blocks per game2.7 #285
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.