Texas Southern Tigers at Grand Canyon Lopes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 9:00 PM ETGlobal Credit Union Arena · at Grand Canyon

LineGCU -27.5no move

Total143.5down 4 from 147.5

Season records: Texas Southern and Grand Canyon
TXSO	This season	GCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GCU 87–62 · win probability GCU 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

GCU -27.5

no move since the open

Total

143.5

model 148.5 · Over by 5

Model edge

TXSO by 2.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GCU has more of the edges

TXSO 0, GCU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GCUBig

GCU offense vs TXSO defense

Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 323rd, on the model’s ratings

GCUBig

TXSO offense vs GCU defense

Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TXSO has played the 329th-hardest schedule, GCU the 107th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GCUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5; GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4

GCUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TXSO 28.8%, GCU 31.3%. Defensive: TXSO 68.8%, GCU 74.7%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TXSO plays 71.8 a game (40th fastest), GCU 69.3 (166th). Faster games mean more points

GCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TXSO 18.5%, GCU 17.6%. Forced: TXSO 16.5%, GCU 17.4%

GCUSmall

Home court

GCU at home. This season: GCU 0-0 at home, TXSO 0-0 away

GCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TXSO 38.2, GCU 39.5. Allowed: TXSO 44.0, GCU 39.0

Even

Three-pointers

TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%; GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 32.5% and 38.9% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TXSO 37%, GCU 51%. Transfers in: TXSO 4, GCU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 140 to 144.5	3570	72%	50%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenGCU -27.5

no move

NowGCU -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open147.5

▼ 4

Now143.5

Down 4 since the open

Moneyline

—

Line movement

Median of 4 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened GCU -27.5 · now GCU -28.5 · moved 1 toward GCUmodel GCU -25

model GCU -25

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

TXSOWinner

GCU

Bets

98%

Money

99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

4 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	TXSO	GCU	Over	Under	TXSO	GCU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-28.5-110	+28.5-110	146-110	146-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-26.5-107	+26.5-120	147.5-106	147.5-121	—	—
BovadaBovada	-28.5-110	+28.5-110	146-110	146-110	—	—
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-28.5-106	+28.5-106	146-108	146-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	GCU -27.5	GCU -24.8	TXSO +2.7
Total	143.5	148.5	Over 5.0
Projected score	—	TXSO 61.8 · GCU 86.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GCU -14.6	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	TXSO 27.4 · GCU 42	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLWLL	9-19	32%	3-12	5-13
GCU WWWWL	17-15	53%	9-8	11-10

Venue/role: TXSO away, as underdog; GCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO UOUUO	14-14	50%	10-18
GCU UUOUO	13-19	41%	20-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
GCU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ LSU	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ MUR	No recent meeting
Nov 16	@ UCSD	No recent meeting

Grand Canyon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs CP	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs ULM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-14

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W W L W W L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1450%

U O O U O U U O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 20	@VAN	L 74-109	+36.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 183
Dec 6	vsSHSU	L 70-82	+7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 152
Dec 14	@MINN	L 53-89	+21.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 17	@NCSU	L 72-108	+34.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 180
Dec 22	vsACU	L 68-75	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 3	@SOU	L 73-84	+6.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	@GRAM	L 67-84	+5.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 10	vsUAPB	L 66-74	-1.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 12	vsMVSU	W 84-51	-12.5	W +20.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 17	@ALCN	W 72-71	-1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	@JKST	L 89-94	+2.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 183
Jan 24	vsAAMU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsALST	W 96-64	-2.5	W +29.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 31	@PV	L 78-85	-1.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 163
Feb 7	@FAMU	W 62-57	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	@BCU	L 69-79	+7.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 148
Feb 14	vsGRAM	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 161
Feb 16	vsSOU	W 74-73	+4.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 19	@UAPB	W 83-64	+1.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 147
Feb 21	@MVSU	L 71-72	-11.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 26	vsALCN	W 92-87	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	vsJKST	W 82-57	-6.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 139
Mar 5	vsPV	L 59-70	-1.5	L −12.5	154.5	U 129
Mar 12	vsAAMU	L 74-85	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

VAN

L 74-109

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−4.5

MINN

L 53-89

−14.5

NCSU

L 72-108

−1.5

ACU

L 68-75

−2.5

SOU

L 73-84

−4.5

GRAM

L 67-84

−11.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−9.5

MVSU

W 84-51

+20.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−0.5

JKST

L 89-94

−2.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+16.5

ALST

W 96-64

+29.5

L 78-85

−8.5

FAMU

W 62-57

+6.5

BCU

L 69-79

−2.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+1.5

SOU

W 74-73

+5.5

UAPB

W 83-64

+20.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−12.5

ALCN

W 92-87

−0.5

JKST

W 82-57

+18.5

L 59-70

−12.5

AAMU

L 74-85

−9.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

VAN

L 74-109

+18.5

SHSU

L 70-82

−6.5

MINN

L 53-89

−2.5

NCSU

L 72-108

+27.5

ACU

L 68-75

+4.5

SOU

L 73-84

+3.5

GRAM

L 67-84

+4.5

UAPB

L 66-74

−22.5

MVSU

W 84-51

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-71

−3.5

JKST

L 89-94

+29.5

AAMU

W 89-74

+17.5

ALST

W 96-64

+4.5

L 78-85

+5.5

FAMU

W 62-57

−27.5

BCU

L 69-79

−4.5

GRAM

W 82-79

+21.5

SOU

W 74-73

−4.5

UAPB

W 83-64

−5.5

MVSU

L 71-72

−0.5

ALCN

W 92-87

+33.5

JKST

W 82-57

−13.5

L 59-70

−25.5

AAMU

L 74-85

+16.5

over 14under 14avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grand Canyon

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

17-15

53% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

W L W L W W L W L W W W L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1553%

W L W L L W L L L W W L L W W L W W W L W L L L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1941%

O O U U O U U U O U O U U U U O O U U U O O O U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsPFW	W 90-71	-14.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	vsYSU	L 81-90	-15.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 10	vsNIU	W 88-59	-22.5	W +6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 15	@SLU	L 64-78	+8.5	L −5.5	167.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsNWST	W 85-72	-18.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsUTAH	W 68-58	-5.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 126
Nov 26	vsIOWA	L 46-59	+8.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 105
Dec 2	vsSTET	W 67-45	-24.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 112
Dec 6	vsOKST	L 78-84	+1.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsCCU	W 82-61	-17.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 20	@WYO	W 82-70	+2.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 152
Dec 22	vsIUIN	W 91-78	-23.5	L −10.5	169.5	U 169
Jan 3	vsCSU	L 60-70	-6.5	L −16.5	143.5	U 130
Jan 7	@BOIS	W 75-58	+8.5	W +25.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsSJSU	W 76-58	-16.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	@UNM	L 64-87	+6.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 17	vsUSU	W 84-74	+5.5	W +15.5	150.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsSDSU	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 139
Jan 24	@FRES	W 68-57	-4.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 27	@NEV	L 60-66	+3.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 126
Jan 30	vsBOIS	W 86-69	-1.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 3	vsAF	W 81-57	-26.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 138
Feb 7	@UNLV	L 78-80	-2.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 11	vsUNM	L 64-70	-1.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 134
Feb 14	@SJSU	W 94-79	-11.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	@SDSU	W 73-63	+7.5	W +17.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsWYO	L 65-70	-7.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 135
Feb 25	vsUNLV	W 80-67	-7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 147
Feb 28	@USU	L 69-74	+9.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 3	@AF	W 86-60	-19.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 146
Mar 7	vsFRES	W 85-60	-12.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 145
Mar 12	vsNEV	L 80-84	-3.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PFW

W 90-71

+4.5

YSU

L 81-90

−24.5

NIU

W 88-59

+6.5

SLU

L 64-78

−5.5

NWST

W 85-72

−5.5

UTAH

W 68-58

+4.5

IOWA

L 46-59

−4.5

STET

W 67-45

−2.5

OKST

L 78-84

−4.5

CCU

W 82-61

+3.5

WYO

W 82-70

+14.5

IUIN

W 91-78

−10.5

CSU

L 60-70

−16.5

BOIS

W 75-58

+25.5

SJSU

W 76-58

+1.5

UNM

L 64-87

−16.5

USU

W 84-74

+15.5

SDSU

W 70-69

+2.5

FRES

W 68-57

+6.5

NEV

L 60-66

−2.5

BOIS

W 86-69

+15.5

W 81-57

−2.5

UNLV

L 78-80

−4.5

UNM

L 64-70

−7.5

SJSU

W 94-79

+3.5

SDSU

W 73-63

+17.5

WYO

L 65-70

−12.5

UNLV

W 80-67

+5.5

USU

L 69-74

+4.5

W 86-60

+6.5

FRES

W 85-60

+12.5

NEV

L 80-84

−7.5

covered 17didn’t cover 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PFW

W 90-71

+5.5

YSU

L 81-90

+18.5

NIU

W 88-59

−16.5

SLU

L 64-78

−25.5

NWST

W 85-72

+9.5

UTAH

W 68-58

−27.5

IOWA

L 46-59

−38.5

STET

W 67-45

−29.5

OKST

L 78-84

+6.5

CCU

W 82-61

−0.5

WYO

W 82-70

+4.5

IUIN

W 91-78

−0.5

CSU

L 60-70

−13.5

BOIS

W 75-58

−7.5

SJSU

W 76-58

−7.5

UNM

L 64-87

+4.5

USU

W 84-74

+7.5

SDSU

W 70-69

−6.5

FRES

W 68-57

−20.5

NEV

L 60-66

−17.5

BOIS

W 86-69

+13.5

W 81-57

+0.5

UNLV

L 78-80

+9.5

UNM

L 64-70

−14.5

SJSU

W 94-79

+33.5

SDSU

W 73-63

−3.5

WYO

L 65-70

−9.5

UNLV

W 80-67

−3.5

USU

L 69-74

−4.5

W 86-60

+2.5

FRES

W 85-60

−4.5

NEV

L 80-84

+26.5

over 13under 19avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grand Canyon has the better starters

Position by position: Texas Southern 0, Grand Canyon 2, even 3

Texas SouthernBetterGrand Canyon

G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23

Even

G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32

G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56

G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97

F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7

GCUBig

G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89

C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

GCUBig

F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89

Texas SouthernBetterGrand Canyon

TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7

GCUBig

GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5

TXSO defense323rd of 366 · -8.4

GCUBig

GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

GCUBig

Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players

GCUBig

Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player

Bench-4.2 · 5 players

GCUBig

Bench+2.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTXSO betterGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Texas Southern

Guards

K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR

Forwards

A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew

Centers

J. Gorecki17 min

Grand Canyon

Guards

J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR

Forwards

B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew

Centers

E. Demirel23 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TXSO73.9 #204

GCU75.6 #153

Points per possession

TXSO1.03 #293

GCU1.09 #158

Pace (possessions)

TXSO71.8 #40

GCU69.3 #166

Shooting

Effective FG%

TXSO49.7 #251

GCU51.7 #162

3-point %

TXSO33.1 #224

GCU31.8 #286

3-point attempt rate

TXSO32.5 #324

GCU38.9 #192

Free throw rate

TXSO38.2 #96

GCU39.5 #67

Possessions

Turnover rate

TXSO18.5 #297

GCU17.6 #245

Offensive rebound rate

TXSO28.8 #237

GCU31.3 #150

Assists per game

TXSO11.1 #332

GCU12.8 #230

Defense

Points allowed

TXSO80.0 #318

GCU68.7 #42

Points allowed per possession

TXSO1.12 #260

GCU0.99 #22

Opponent effective FG%

TXSO52.5 #240

GCU47.4 #28

Opponent 3-point %

TXSO34.1 #190

GCU31.9 #60

Turnovers forced

TXSO16.5 #188

GCU17.4 #129

Defensive rebound rate

TXSO68.8 #211

GCU74.7 #12

Steals per game

TXSO6.6 #167

GCU6.6 #165

Blocks per game

TXSO3.3 #173

GCU3.6 #123

TXSO		GCU
Scoring
73.9 #204	Points per game	75.6 #153
1.03 #293	Points per possession	1.09 #158
71.8 #40	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #166
Shooting
49.7 #251	Effective FG%	51.7 #162
33.1 #224	3-point %	31.8 #286
32.5 #324	3-point attempt rate	38.9 #192
38.2 #96	Free throw rate	39.5 #67
Possessions
18.5 #297	Turnover rate	17.6 #245
28.8 #237	Offensive rebound rate	31.3 #150
11.1 #332	Assists per game	12.8 #230
Defense
80.0 #318	Points allowed	68.7 #42
1.12 #260	Points allowed per possession	0.99 #22
52.5 #240	Opponent effective FG%	47.4 #28
34.1 #190	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #60
16.5 #188	Turnovers forced	17.4 #129
68.8 #211	Defensive rebound rate	74.7 #12
6.6 #167	Steals per game	6.6 #165
3.3 #173	Blocks per game	3.6 #123

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
Lvs Prairie View59–70
Wvs Jackson St82–57
Wvs Alcorn St92–87
L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nevada80–84
Wvs Fresno St85–60
W@ Air Force86–60
L@ Utah State69–74
Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.