Enterprise Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ISU -24.5✓ ISU covered by 9.5
ISU -24.5✓ ISU covered by 9.5Closing total147.5Over by 34.5
 TNST | This season | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| 20-9 | Record | 27-7 |
| 18-11 | ATS | 20-14 |
| 13-16 | O/U | 14-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TNST 62–89 ISU · ✓ ISU (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 29 | 45 | 74 |
| ISU | 55 | 53 | 108 |
1st half: TNST 29, ISU 55 (ISU by 26). The model had ISU by 15.4 and a total of 70.6 (actual 84).
Team stats
| TNST | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-65 43% | Field goals | 38-72 53% |
| 5-21 24% | 3-pointers | 11-24 46% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 21-27 78% |
| 29 11 off | Rebounds | 43 18 off |
| 14 | Assists | 24 |
| 8 | Steals | 9 |
| 9 | Blocks | 5 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| TNST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Harris G | 37 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5-14 | 0-2 |
| Travis Harper II G | 35 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 4-13 | 0-5 |
| Antoine Lorick III F | 31 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 9-15 | 2-4 |
| Aaron Nkrumah G | 31 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 7-15 | 2-6 |
| Jalen Pitre F | 29 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carlous Williams F | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jabrion Spikes G | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Kavien Jones F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Damon Howard Jr. G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| JC Brooks F | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Alex Garcia F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Maddux Bodenhamer, Khalil London, Ogien Ayo, Jayden Jones, Jean Lafleur
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan Momcilovic F | 34 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-7 |
| Killyan Toure G | 30 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8-12 | 2-3 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 27 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Tamin Lipsey G | 18 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Joshua Jefferson F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nate Heise G | 27 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 8-13 | 4-5 |
| Jamarion Batemon G | 24 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-7 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 19 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 12 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Eric Mulder F | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Cade Kelderman G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Anthony Rise G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mason Williams, Xzavion Mitchell
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -24.5
ModelISU -26.2
Model edgeISU +1.7
W ISU covered
Total
Market147.5
Model151.0
Model edgeOver 3.5
W Over
Projected score
TNST 62.4 · ISU 88.6
TNST 74 · ISU 108
Win probability
ISU 99%
1st half
Spread
ISU -15.4
ISU -26.0
Total
70.6
84 points
Projected score
TNST 27.6 · ISU 43
TNST 29 · ISU 55
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -23.5
1 → ISU
CloseISU -24.5
1 pt toward ISU
Total
Open148.5
▼ 1
Close147.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TNST +2200 · ISU -8000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -23.5 · closed ISU -24.5 · moved 1 toward ISUmodel ISU -26
model ISU -26
Opened 148.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 downmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
| ISU | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee St
29 games played
Straight up
20-9
69% wins
Against the spread
18-11
62% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-16
45% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ BEL | L 79-87 | +13.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 16 | @ WKU | L 82-95 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 20 | @ TENN | L 60-89 | +31.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 25 | @ UNCA | W 75-73 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTC | W 70-64 | +8.5 | W +14.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 3 | @ AAMU | L 53-80 | -4.5 | L −31.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 13 | @ UNLV | W 63-60 | +12.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 18 | vs UTM | W 78-71 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 20 | vs SEMO | L 82-91 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 30 | @ TNTC | W 88-76 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ LR | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @ WIU | W 90-68 | -6.5 | W +15.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @ EIU | L 70-74 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 15 | vs MORE | W 105-100 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 205 |
| Jan 17 | vs USI | W 73-67 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 22 | @ SIUE | L 66-74 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ LIN | W 96-86 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 29 | vsLR | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 2 | vsTNTC | L 85-90 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 5 | vsEIU | W 77-68 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 7 | vsWIU | W 83-56 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 12 | @USI | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 14 | @MORE | L 86-94 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 19 | vsLIN | W 89-80 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 21 | vsSIUE | W 80-53 | -2.5 | W +24.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 26 | @SEMO | W 79-71 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 28 | @UTM | W 67-42 | +2.5 | W +27.5 | 143.5 | U 109 |
| Mar 6 | vsUTM | W 68-55 | -1.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Mar 7 | vsMORE | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+5.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
−0.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
+2.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
+7.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
+14.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−31.5
13
@UNLV
UNLVW 63-60
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 78-71
+4.5
20
vsSEMO
SEMOL 82-91
−7.5
30
@TNTC
TNTCW 88-76
+10.5
3
@LR
LRW 84-79
+3.5
8
@WIU
WIUW 90-68
+15.5
10
@EIU
EIUL 70-74
−7.5
15
vsMORE
MOREW 105-100
−2.5
17
vsUSI
USIW 73-67
−2.5
22
@SIUE
SIUEL 66-74
−6.5
24
@LIN
LINW 96-86
+14.5
29
vsLR
LRW 70-63
+2.5
2
vsTNTC
TNTCL 85-90
−12.5
5
vsEIU
EIUW 77-68
−0.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 83-56
+11.5
12
@USI
USIW 73-71
−4.5
14
@MORE
MOREL 86-94
−9.5
19
vsLIN
LINW 89-80
+5.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 80-53
+24.5
26
@SEMO
SEMOW 79-71
+10.5
28
@UTM
UTMW 67-42
+27.5
6
vsUTM
UTMW 68-55
+11.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 93-67
+20.5
covered 18didn’t cover 11avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+7.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
+9.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
−8.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
−16.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
−21.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−14.5
13
@UNLV
UNLVW 63-60
−38.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 78-71
+7.5
20
vsSEMO
SEMOL 82-91
+21.5
30
@TNTC
TNTCW 88-76
+8.5
3
@LR
LRW 84-79
+18.5
8
@WIU
WIUW 90-68
+12.5
10
@EIU
EIUL 70-74
−0.5
15
vsMORE
MOREW 105-100
+56.5
17
vsUSI
USIW 73-67
−10.5
22
@SIUE
SIUEL 66-74
−2.5
24
@LIN
LINW 96-86
+21.5
29
vsLR
LRW 70-63
−17.5
2
vsTNTC
TNTCL 85-90
+21.5
5
vsEIU
EIUW 77-68
−0.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 83-56
−12.5
12
@USI
USIW 73-71
−3.5
14
@MORE
MOREL 86-94
+31.5
19
vsLIN
LINW 89-80
+9.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 80-53
−10.5
26
@SEMO
SEMOW 79-71
−1.5
28
@UTM
UTMW 67-42
−34.5
6
vsUTM
UTMW 68-55
−14.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 93-67
+16.5
over 13under 16avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa State
34 games played
Straight up
27-7
79% wins
Against the spread
20-14
59% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-20
41% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FDU | W 88-50 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 6 | vs GRAM | W 102-62 | -33.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 10 | vs MSST | W 96-80 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 17 | vs STO | W 96-57 | -40.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 24 | vs SJU | W 83-82 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs CREI | W 78-60 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 26 | vs SYR | W 95-64 | -10.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs ALCN | W 132-68 | -42.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | O 200 |
| Dec 6 | @ PUR | W 81-58 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 11 | vs IOWA | W 66-62 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vsEIU | W 78-53 | -43.5 | L −18.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 21 | vs LBSU | W 91-60 | -37.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 29 | vs HCU | W 89-61 | -35.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 2 | vs WVU | W 80-59 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 7 | @ BAY | W 70-60 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs OKST | W 83-71 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 13 | @ KU | L 63-84 | -3.5 | L −24.5 | 152.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | @ CIN | L 70-79 | -5.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 20 | vs UCF | W 87-57 | -14.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @OKST | W 84-71 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 162.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 29 | vs COLO | W 97-67 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 1 | @ KSU | W 95-61 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 7 | vsBAY | W 72-69 | -14.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | @ TCU | L 55-62 | -7.5 | L −14.5 | 147.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 14 | vsKU | W 74-56 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 16 | vs HOU | W 70-67 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | O 137 |
| Feb 21 | @ BYU | L 69-79 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 24 | @ UTAH | W 75-59 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 28 | vs TTU | L 73-82 | -10.5 | L −19.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 2 | @ ARIZ | L 57-73 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 7 | vs ASU | W 86-65 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 11 | vsASU | W 91-42 | -13.5 | W +35.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 12 | vsTTU | W 75-53 | -7.5 | W +14.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 13 | vsARIZ | L 80-82 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+10.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
−1.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
−1.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
+8.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+20.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+21.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
+27.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−7.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−18.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
−6.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
−7.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
+4.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
+6.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−7.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−24.5
17
@CIN
CINL 70-79
−14.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 87-57
+15.5
24
@OKST
OKSTW 84-71
+2.5
29
vsCOLO
COLOW 97-67
+12.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 95-61
+21.5
7
vsBAY
BAYW 72-69
−11.5
10
@TCU
TCUL 55-62
−14.5
14
vsKU
KUW 74-56
+10.5
16
vsHOU
HOUW 70-67
+0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 69-79
−12.5
24
@UTAH
UTAHW 75-59
+1.5
28
vsTTU
TTUL 73-82
−19.5
2
@ARIZ
ARIZL 57-73
−8.5
7
vsASU
ASUW 86-65
+4.5
11
vsASU
ASUW 91-42
+35.5
12
vsTTU
TTUW 75-53
+14.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-82
+1.5
covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+25.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
+6.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
+6.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
−14.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+13.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+48.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
−15.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−13.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−13.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
+1.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
+4.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
−3.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
−25.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−11.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−5.5
17
@CIN
CINL 70-79
+7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 87-57
−12.5
24
@OKST
OKSTW 84-71
−7.5
29
vsCOLO
COLOW 97-67
+11.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 95-61
−0.5
7
vsBAY
BAYW 72-69
−10.5
10
@TCU
TCUL 55-62
−30.5
14
vsKU
KUW 74-56
−17.5
16
vsHOU
HOUW 70-67
+2.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 69-79
−6.5
24
@UTAH
UTAHW 75-59
−10.5
28
vsTTU
TTUL 73-82
+9.5
2
@ARIZ
ARIZL 57-73
−19.5
7
vsASU
ASUW 86-65
+2.5
11
vsASU
ASUW 91-42
−15.5
12
vsTTU
TTUW 75-53
−15.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-82
+17.5
over 14under 20avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee St
20-9 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Morehead St93–67
- Wvs UT Martin68–55
- W@ UT Martin67–42
- W@ SE Missouri79–71
- Wvs SIUE80–53
A week or more of rest.
Iowa State
27-7 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Arizona80–82
- Wvs Texas Tech75–53
- Wvs Arizona St91–42
- Wvs Arizona St86–65
- L@ Arizona57–73
A week or more of rest.