Athletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso · Conference game
Closing line
VAL -8.5✓ EVAN covered by 1.5
VAL -8.5✓ EVAN covered by 1.5Closing total136.5Under by 3.5
 EVAN | This season | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3-18 | Record | 10-12 |
| 9-12 | ATS | 15-7 |
| 9-12 | O/U | 11-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: EVAN 65–73 VAL · ✓ VAL (77%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVAN | 26 | 32 | 5 | 63 |
| VAL | 28 | 30 | 12 | 70 |
1st half: EVAN 26, VAL 28 (VAL by 2). The model had VAL by 5.0 and a total of 64.8 (actual 54).
Team stats
| EVAN | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-60 38% | Field goals | 26-63 41% |
| 10-25 40% | 3-pointers | 6-23 26% |
| 7-11 64% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 29 9 off | Rebounds | 44 15 off |
| 15 | Assists | 10 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| EVAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leif Moeller G | 43 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 8-13 | 5-6 |
| AJ Casey F | 42 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 7-18 | 1-4 |
| Alex Hemenway G | 37 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-11 | 2-10 |
| Joshua Hughes F | 37 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Bryce Quinet G | 34 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trent Hundley F | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| James Dyson-Merwe F | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kaia Berridge G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Weston Aigner, Marlon Barnes Jr., Keishon Porter, Connor Turnbull, Aaron Gutman, Leo Amari IV, Dakota Candler
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justus McNair G | 38 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-6 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 35 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Owen Dease F | 35 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 7-16 | 2-6 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 27 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2-10 | 1-4 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 26 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carter Hopoi F | 24 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Sader Servilus G | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Barnes, Kobe Walker, Camden Webster, Brody Whitaker, Joe Vick, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVAL -8.5
ModelVAL -8.5
Model edge—
EVAN covered
Total
Market136.5
Model138.3
Model edgeOver 1.8
L Under
Projected score
EVAN 64.9 · VAL 73.4
EVAN 63 · VAL 70
Win probability
VAL 77%
1st half
Spread
VAL -5.0
VAL -2.0
Total
64.8
54 points
Projected score
EVAN 29.9 · VAL 34.9
EVAN 26 · VAL 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVAL -9.5
1 → EVAN
CloseVAL -8.5
1 pt toward EVAN
Total
Open137.5
▼ 1
Close136.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
EVAN +380 · VAL -500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VAL -9.5 · closed VAL -8.5 · moved 1 toward EVANmodel VAL -8.5 matches the line
model VAL -8.5 = line ✓
Opened 137.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 1 downmodel 138.5
model 138.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVAN | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| VAL | 5-5 50% | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
EVAN 4–5 VALVAL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · EVAN has won the last 4 meetings · EVAN 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024-25 | VAL 69 @ EVAN 79 | EVAN +1.5 | EVAN W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | EVAN 78 @ VAL 68 | VAL -7.5 | EVAN W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | EVAN 63 @ VAL 62 | VAL -1.5 | EVAN W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | VAL 75 @ EVAN 78 | EVAN -6.5 | VAL W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | EVAN 69 @ VAL 81 | VAL -9.5 | VAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Evansville
21 games played
Straight up
3-18
14% wins
Against the spread
9-12
43% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-12
43% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ PUR | L 51-82 | +33.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTSU | L 72-77 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTA | L 76-84 | -2.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs ORST | W 73-69 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs AKR | L 59-97 | +11.5 | L −26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs COFC | L 59-78 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs BALL | W 64-52 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 6 | @ WKU | L 79-80 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | @ ND | L 58-82 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 16 | vs BEL | L 78-83 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 21 | vs DRKE | L 65-66 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 29 | @ BRAD | L 68-76 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 1 | @ ILST | L 47-73 | +12.5 | L −13.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 4 | vs UNI | L 48-62 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | U 110 |
| Jan 7 | vs MUR | L 69-79 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 10 | @ INST | W 72-69 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 13 | vsBRAD | L 90-94 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 20 | @ UIC | L 49-76 | +8.5 | L −18.5 | 139.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 28 | @DRKE | L 78-82 | +8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 31 | @UNI | L 55-71 | +11.5 | L −4.5 | 128.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 3 | vsINST | L 63-84 | +1.5 | L −19.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@PUR
PURL 51-82
+2.5
12
vsMTSU
MTSUL 72-77
−7.5
18
vsUTA
UTAL 76-84
−10.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 73-69
+10.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 59-97
−26.5
24
vsCOFC
COFCL 59-78
−14.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 64-52
+5.5
6
@WKU
WKUL 79-80
+10.5
13
@ND
NDL 58-82
−9.5
16
vsBEL
BELL 78-83
+3.5
21
vsDRKE
DRKEL 65-66
−3.5
29
@BRAD
BRADL 68-76
+3.5
1
@ILST
ILSTL 47-73
−13.5
4
vsUNI
UNIL 48-62
−9.5
7
vsMUR
MURL 69-79
−1.5
10
@INST
INSTW 72-69
+10.5
13
vsBRAD
BRADL 90-94
+3.5
20
@UIC
UICL 49-76
−18.5
28
@DRKE
DRKEL 78-82
+4.5
31
@UNI
UNIL 55-71
−4.5
3
vsINST
INSTL 63-84
−19.5
covered 9didn’t cover 12avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@PUR
PURL 51-82
−17.5
12
vsMTSU
MTSUL 72-77
+8.5
18
vsUTA
UTAL 76-84
+21.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 73-69
+5.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 59-97
−0.5
24
vsCOFC
COFCL 59-78
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 64-52
−20.5
6
@WKU
WKUL 79-80
+11.5
13
@ND
NDL 58-82
+3.5
16
vsBEL
BELL 78-83
+13.5
21
vsDRKE
DRKEL 65-66
−10.5
29
@BRAD
BRADL 68-76
−0.5
1
@ILST
ILSTL 47-73
−24.5
4
vsUNI
UNIL 48-62
−21.5
7
vsMUR
MURL 69-79
−5.5
10
@INST
INSTW 72-69
−4.5
13
vsBRAD
BRADL 90-94
+41.5
20
@UIC
UICL 49-76
−14.5
28
@DRKE
DRKEL 78-82
+16.5
31
@UNI
UNIL 55-71
−2.5
3
vsINST
INSTL 63-84
+1.5
over 9under 12avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Valparaiso
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
15-7
68% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-11
50% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vsMUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @ SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vsUIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 7 | vsILST | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MUR | L 79-92 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @BEL | L 74-78 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNI | W 54-44 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | vsSIU | W 69-63 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 28 | vsBEL | L 77-78 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 31 | @INST | W 76-72 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 3 | @BRAD | L 65-72 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+12.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
−0.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+7.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
+11.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
+4.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+4.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+6.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
+0.5
covered 15didn’t cover 7avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+9.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
+18.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+5.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
−32.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
−10.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+9.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+2.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
−7.5
over 11under 11avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Evansville
3-18 overall · 1-11 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Indiana St63–84
- L@ Northern Iowa55–71
- L@ Drake78–82
- L@ UIC49–76
- Lvs Bradley90–94
3 days since their last game.
Valparaiso
10-12 overall · 5-7 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Bradley65–72
- W@ Indiana St76–72
- Lvs Belmont77–78
- Wvs S Illinois69–63
- Wvs Northern Iowa54–44
3 days since their last game.