Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati · Conference game
Closing line
CIN -4.5✓ CIN covered by 15.5
CIN -4.5✓ CIN covered by 15.5Closing total146.5Over by 17.5
 UCF | This season | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17-5 | Record | 11-12 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 9-14 |
| 8-14 | O/U | 6-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCF 73–75 CIN · ✓ CIN (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 28 | 44 | 72 |
| CIN | 40 | 52 | 92 |
1st half: UCF 28, CIN 40 (CIN by 12). The model had CIN by 1.6 and a total of 69.3 (actual 68).
Team stats
| UCF | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-66 41% | Field goals | 33-56 59% |
| 6-23 26% | 3-pointers | 11-18 61% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 15-21 71% |
| 31 11 off | Rebounds | 37 7 off |
| 11 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| UCF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Burks F | 32 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-3 |
| Jamichael Stillwell F | 30 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 6-13 | 0-1 |
| Riley Kugel G | 25 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-3 |
| Themus Fulks G | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| John Bol C | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chris Johnson G | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 6-13 | 2-6 |
| Devan Cambridge F | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Carmelo Pacheco G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| George Beale Jr. G | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Jeremy Foumena C | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Hulsewe C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zachary Johnson F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tanner Jones, Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Kris Parker
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jizzle James G | 34 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 5-10 | 3-5 |
| Baba Miller F | 33 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Jalen Celestine G | 31 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5-6 | 3-3 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 31 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7-13 | 0-2 |
| Day Day Thomas G | 25 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Keyshuan Tillery G | 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Sencire Harris G | 16 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Halvine Dzellat C | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Lucas Atauri, Bryson Buckingham, Grant Darbyshire, Shon Abaev, Tyler McKinley, Jalen Haynes, Kerr Kriisa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCIN -4.5
ModelCIN -2.8
Model edgeUCF +1.7
L CIN covered
Total
Market146.5
Model148.1
Model edgeOver 1.6
W Over
Projected score
UCF 72.6 · CIN 75.4
UCF 72 · CIN 92
Win probability
CIN 60%
1st half
Spread
CIN -1.6
CIN -12.0
Total
69.3
68 points
Projected score
UCF 33.9 · CIN 35.4
UCF 28 · CIN 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -4.5
no move
CloseCIN -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
▲ 1
Close146.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UCF +160 · CIN -192
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -4.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -3
model CIN -3
Opened 145.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 upmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| CIN | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
UCF 3–5 CINCIN leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCF has won the last 2 meetings · UCF 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025-26 | CIN 72 @ UCF 73 | UCF -2.5 | CIN W |
| Apr 3, 2024-25 | UCF 88 vs CIN 80 | CIN -6.5 | UCF W |
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | CIN 93 @ UCF 83 | UCF -3.5 | CIN W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | CIN 76 @ UCF 74 | UCF -0.5 | CIN W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | UCF 57 @ CIN 68 | CIN -6.5 | CIN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UCF
22 games played
Straight up
17-5
77% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-14
36% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HOF | W 82-78 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 8 | vs VAN | L 93-105 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 11 | vs FAMU | W 97-60 | -23.5 | W +13.5 | 169.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 14 | @ TA&M | W 86-74 | +10.5 | W +22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 17 | vs OAK | W 87-83 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PITT | W 77-67 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 25 | vs QUIN | W 102-91 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 29 | vs VMI | W 82-57 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 7 | vs TOW | W 86-61 | -9.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 17 | vs MER | W 81-63 | -16.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs FGCU | W 102-80 | -17.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 23 | vs FAU | W 85-80 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vs KU | W 81-75 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | @ OKST | L 76-87 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 175.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 11 | vsCIN | W 73-72 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 14 | @ KSU | W 82-73 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 170.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 17 | vs ARIZ | L 77-84 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 20 | @ ISU | L 57-87 | +14.5 | L −15.5 | 156.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ COLO | W 95-86 | +3.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 27 | vs ASU | W 79-76 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 31 | vs TTU | W 88-80 | +5.5 | W +13.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 4 | @ HOU | L 55-79 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
−4.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
−1.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
+13.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
+22.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
−9.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
+11.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
−2.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−0.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
+15.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
+1.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+4.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
−3.5
3
vsKU
KUW 81-75
+10.5
6
@OKST
OKSTL 76-87
−9.5
11
vsCIN
CINW 73-72
−1.5
14
@KSU
KSUW 82-73
+11.5
17
vsARIZ
ARIZL 77-84
+2.5
20
@ISU
ISUL 57-87
−15.5
24
@COLO
COLOW 95-86
+12.5
27
vsASU
ASUW 79-76
−3.5
31
vsTTU
TTUW 88-80
+13.5
4
@HOU
HOUL 55-79
−8.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
+19.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
+31.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
−12.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
−12.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
+6.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
−5.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
+30.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−20.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
−1.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
−16.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+20.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
+2.5
3
vsKU
KUW 81-75
−1.5
6
@OKST
OKSTL 76-87
−12.5
11
vsCIN
CINW 73-72
−5.5
14
@KSU
KSUW 82-73
−15.5
17
vsARIZ
ARIZL 77-84
−4.5
20
@ISU
ISUL 57-87
−12.5
24
@COLO
COLOW 95-86
+21.5
27
vsASU
ASUW 79-76
−6.5
31
vsTTU
TTUW 88-80
+8.5
4
@HOU
HOUL 55-79
−12.5
over 8under 14avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cincinnati
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
9-14
39% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-17
26% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WCU | W 94-63 | -22.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | vs GAST | W 74-64 | -29.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 11 | vs DAY | W 74-62 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | vs MSM | W 72-55 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs LOU | L 64-74 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs NJIT | W 94-67 | -34.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs EMU | L 56-64 | -22.5 | L −30.5 | 146.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 1 | vs TAR | W 76-58 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 5 | @ XAV | L 74-79 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | vs UGA | L 65-84 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 17 | vs ALST | W 88-51 | -21.5 | W +15.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs CLEM | L 65-68 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs LIP | W 89-62 | -13.5 | W +13.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 3 | vsHOU | L 60-67 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | @ WVU | L 60-62 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 11 | @UCF | L 72-73 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 14 | vsCOLO | W 77-68 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vsISU | W 79-70 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 21 | @ARIZ | L 51-77 | +13.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ASU | L 68-82 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 28 | vs BAY | W 67-57 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @HOU | L 54-76 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 5 | vsWVU | L 54-59 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 127.5 | U 113 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
+6.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−8.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−1.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
−7.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−30.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−6.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
−6.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−13.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
+15.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
+0.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+13.5
3
vsHOU
HOUL 60-67
−2.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 60-62
−3.5
11
@UCF
UCFL 72-73
+1.5
14
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+0.5
17
vsISU
ISUW 79-70
+14.5
21
@ARIZ
ARIZL 51-77
−12.5
24
@ASU
ASUL 68-82
−17.5
28
vsBAY
BAYW 67-57
+6.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 54-76
−8.5
5
vsWVU
WVUL 54-59
−10.5
covered 9didn’t cover 14avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
−11.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−18.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−25.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
+19.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−26.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−8.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
+5.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−8.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
−6.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
−7.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+0.5
3
vsHOU
HOUL 60-67
−8.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 60-62
−10.5
11
@UCF
UCFL 72-73
−5.5
14
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−0.5
17
vsISU
ISUW 79-70
+7.5
21
@ARIZ
ARIZL 51-77
−24.5
24
@ASU
ASUL 68-82
+3.5
28
vsBAY
BAYW 67-57
−21.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 54-76
−5.5
5
vsWVU
WVUL 54-59
−14.5
over 6under 17avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UCF
17-5 overall · 6-4 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Houston55–79
- Wvs Texas Tech88–80
- Wvs Arizona St79–76
- W@ Colorado95–86
- L@ Iowa State57–87
4 days since their last game.
Cincinnati
11-12 overall · 3-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs West Virginia54–59
- L@ Houston54–76
- Wvs Baylor67–57
- L@ Arizona St68–82
- L@ Arizona51–77
3 days since their last game.