Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -8.5✓ DUKE covered by 22.5
DUKE -8.5✓ DUKE covered by 22.5Closing total157.5Under by 22.5
 LOU | This season | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | Record | 18-1 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 11-8 |
| 8-11 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 74–81 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 28 | 24 | 52 |
| DUKE | 38 | 45 | 83 |
1st half: LOU 28, DUKE 38 (DUKE by 10). The model had DUKE by 3.9 and a total of 72.8 (actual 66).
Team stats
| LOU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-54 30% | Field goals | 31-61 51% |
| 11-34 32% | 3-pointers | 8-23 35% |
| 9-13 69% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 26 9 off | Rebounds | 47 15 off |
| 11 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 10 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 37 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-9 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 34 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1-13 | 1-7 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 29 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Sananda Fru F | 24 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke, London Johnson, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, Khani Rooths, Kasean Pryor
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Foster G | 31 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-3 |
| Cameron Boozer F | 31 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 8-16 | 1-4 |
| Dame Sarr F | 27 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 26 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-8 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 24 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cayden Boozer G | 20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Maliq Brown F | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Darren Harris G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Scott G | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDUKE -8.5
ModelDUKE -6.8
Model edgeLOU +1.7
L DUKE covered
Total
Market157.5
Model155.5
Model edgeUnder 2.0
W Under
Projected score
LOU 74.3 · DUKE 81.1
LOU 52 · DUKE 83
Win probability
DUKE 72%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -3.9
DUKE -10.0
Total
72.8
66 points
Projected score
LOU 34.4 · DUKE 38.4
LOU 28 · DUKE 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -6.5
2 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -8.5
2 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open155.5
▲ 2
Close157.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
LOU +360 · DUKE -470
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -6.5 · closed DUKE -8.5 · moved 2 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -7
model DUKE -7
Opened 155.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
LOU 0–7 DUKEDUKE leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 7 meetings · LOU 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025-26 | DUKE 84 @ LOU 73 | LOU +1.5 | DUKE W |
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | LOU 62 vs DUKE 73 | DUKE -6.5 | DUKE W |
| Dec 8, 2024-25 | DUKE 76 @ LOU 65 | LOU +8.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | LOU 59 @ DUKE 84 | DUKE -20.5 | DUKE W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | DUKE 83 @ LOU 69 | LOU +14.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
19 games played
Straight up
14-5
74% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-11
42% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vsDUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
over 8under 11avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Duke
19 games played
Straight up
18-1
95% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vsARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
over 7under 12avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
14-5 overall · 4-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia Tech85–71
- W@ Pitt100–59
- Lvs Virginia70–79
- Wvs Boston College75–62
- Lvs Duke73–84
2 days since their last game.
Duke
18-1 overall · 7-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wake Forest90–69
- W@ Stanford80–50
- W@ California71–56
- Wvs SMU82–75
- W@ Louisville84–73
2 days since their last game.