Convocation Center (OH) · at Ohio · Conference game
Closing line
OHIO -1.5✓ TOL covered by 13.5
OHIO -1.5✓ TOL covered by 13.5Closing total158.5Under by 12.5
 TOL | This season | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| 13-13 | Record | 13-13 |
| 14-12 | ATS | 11-15 |
| 11-15 | O/U | 13-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 79–81 OHIO · ✗ OHIO (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 41 | 38 | 79 |
| OHIO | 28 | 39 | 67 |
1st half: TOL 41, OHIO 28 (TOL by 13). The model had OHIO by 0.9 and a total of 74.7 (actual 69).
Team stats
| TOL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-67 46% | Field goals | 27-68 40% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 7-22 32% |
| 12-14 86% | Free throws | 6-12 50% |
| 45 14 off | Rebounds | 36 13 off |
| 9 | Assists | 11 |
| 5 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 50 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 37 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 7-15 | 1-4 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 36 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 9-17 | 0-5 |
| Sean Craig F | 35 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Austin Parks C | 27 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-1 |
| Mynor Strong G | 24 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 18 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle, London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 38 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-14 | 0-3 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 37 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| JJ Kelly G | 36 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-3 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 34 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Javan Simmons F | 30 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 9-20 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Breath F | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jesse Burris G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kiir Kuany F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dior Conners G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Chase Boals, Elijah Elliott, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher, Ayden Evans
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketOHIO -1.5
ModelOHIO -1.8
Model edgeOHIO +0.3
L TOL covered
Total
Market158.5
Model159.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
L Under
Projected score
TOL 79.1 · OHIO 80.8
TOL 79 · OHIO 67
Win probability
OHIO 56%
1st half
Spread
OHIO -0.9
TOL -13.0
Total
74.7
69 points
Projected score
TOL 36.9 · OHIO 37.8
TOL 41 · OHIO 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOHIO -1.5
no move
CloseOHIO -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open159.5
▼ 1
Close158.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TOL +114 · OHIO -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OHIO -1.5 · unchangedmodel OHIO -2
model OHIO -2
Opened 159.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| OHIO | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
TOL 10–0 OHIOTOL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 10 meetings · TOL 9-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | OHIO 85 @ TOL 101 | TOL -2.5 | TOL W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | OHIO 85 vs TOL 90 | TOL +2.5 | TOL W |
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | OHIO 82 @ TOL 96 | TOL +1.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | TOL 86 @ OHIO 83 | OHIO -3.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 16, 2023-24 | OHIO 83 @ TOL 85 | TOL -5.5 | OHIO W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
26 games played
Straight up
13-13
50% wins
Against the spread
14-12
54% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-15
42% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vs M-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsOHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @ MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vs BGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @ AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vs BALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 11 | @WMU | W 90-79 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | @BGSU | L 70-80 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 21 | vs EMU | W 94-75 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNIU | W 79-69 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+4.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−6.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+10.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+14.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−0.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+23.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
over 11under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ohio
26 games played
Straight up
13-13
50% wins
Against the spread
11-15
42% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-13
50% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vsMRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vsBGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vsMASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs BUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @TOL | L 85-101 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @BALL | L 71-76 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | vsNIU | W 80-77 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 23 | vsAKR | L 65-86 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | @KENT | L 57-72 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 31 | @BUF | W 95-83 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsWMU | W 91-71 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ ODU | L 72-78 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 13 | @M-OH | L 74-90 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 17 | vsBALL | W 69-57 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 21 | @NIU | W 74-66 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
−13.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−10.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
−8.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−14.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−9.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+14.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+9.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−9.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 74-90
−8.5
17
vsBALL
BALLW 69-57
+2.5
21
@NIU
NIUW 74-66
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 15avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
+24.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−0.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
+2.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−16.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−33.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+21.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+6.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−6.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 74-90
+0.5
17
vsBALL
BALLW 69-57
−19.5
21
@NIU
NIUW 74-66
−8.5
over 13under 13avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
13-13 overall · 9-6 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Illinois79–69
- Wvs E Michigan94–75
- L@ Bowling Green70–80
- W@ W Michigan90–79
- L@ James Madison71–73
4 days since their last game.
Ohio
13-13 overall · 9-6 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ N Illinois74–66
- Wvs Ball State69–57
- L@ Miami OH74–90
- L@ Old Dominion72–78
- Wvs W Michigan91–71
A week or more of rest.