Convocation Center (OH) · at Ohio · Conference game
Closing line
OHIO -9.5✓ OHIO covered by 2.5
OHIO -9.5✓ OHIO covered by 2.5Closing total145.5Under by 19.5
 BALL | This season | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| 6-17 | Record | 11-13 |
| 9-14 | ATS | 9-15 |
| 6-17 | O/U | 13-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BALL 67–77 OHIO · ✓ OHIO (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 15 | 42 | 57 |
| OHIO | 32 | 37 | 69 |
1st half: BALL 15, OHIO 32 (OHIO by 17). The model had OHIO by 5.5 and a total of 67.2 (actual 47).
Team stats
| BALL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-54 41% | Field goals | 22-52 42% |
| 5-18 28% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 8-14 57% | Free throws | 17-21 81% |
| 35 11 off | Rebounds | 34 9 off |
| 8 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| BALL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Hill G | 37 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-2 |
| Armoni Zeigler G | 35 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1-9 | 0-1 |
| Mason Jones F | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Preston Copeland F | 24 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Devon Barnes G | 19 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 7-11 | 3-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elmore James IV G | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Cam Denson F | 15 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Kayden Fish F | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Juwan Maxey G | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-6 |
Did not play: Jai Anthoni Bearden, Kody Clancy, Easton Foster, Zane Doughty, Alex Farley, Joey Hart
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 38 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 7-16 | 0-1 |
| JJ Kelly G | 35 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 34 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-5 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 33 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Javan Simmons F | 28 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Breath F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dior Conners G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Kiir Kuany F | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jesse Burris G | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Ayden Evans, Elijah Elliott, Chase Boals, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketOHIO -9.5
ModelOHIO -9.5
Model edge—
OHIO covered
Total
Market145.5
Model143.6
Model edgeUnder 1.9
W Under
Projected score
BALL 67 · OHIO 76.5
BALL 57 · OHIO 69
Win probability
OHIO 80%
1st half
Spread
OHIO -5.5
OHIO -17.0
Total
67.2
47 points
Projected score
BALL 30.8 · OHIO 36.4
BALL 15 · OHIO 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOHIO -9.5
no move
CloseOHIO -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▲ 2
Close145.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
BALL +425 · OHIO -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OHIO -9.5 · unchangedmodel OHIO -9.5 matches the line
model OHIO -9.5 = line ✓
Opened 143.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 upmodel 143.5
model 143.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| OHIO | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BALL 1–6 OHIOOHIO leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · BALL 1-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025-26 | OHIO 71 @ BALL 76 | BALL +5.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | BALL 71 @ OHIO 86 | OHIO -8.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | OHIO 84 @ BALL 79 | BALL +2 | OHIO W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | OHIO 90 vs BALL 70 | BALL -1.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 10, 2022-23 | BALL 71 @ OHIO 76 | OHIO -1.5 | OHIO W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ball State
23 games played
Straight up
6-17
26% wins
Against the spread
9-14
39% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-17
26% overs · avg −7.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UL | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 11 | @ WIS | L 55-86 | +26.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | vs LR | L 62-68 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 22 | @ INST | L 52-70 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 28 | vs MONM | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 29 | @ LAF | L 37-55 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs LEM | W 96-85 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 3 | @ EVAN | L 52-64 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 9 | vs SDST | L 64-68 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ CAM | L 64-69 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | vs M-OH | L 77-86 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ BUF | L 72-85 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 6 | vs EMU | L 52-74 | -1.5 | L −23.5 | 137.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 10 | @ MASS | L 71-79 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @ AKR | L 77-87 | +20.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 16 | vsOHIO | W 76-71 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | @ CMU | W 68-67 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 24 | vs NIU | W 58-53 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 31 | @ TOL | L 55-73 | +8.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | @ BGSU | L 52-77 | +11.5 | L −13.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 7 | @ ULM | W 73-68 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 11 | vsBUF | L 53-63 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 14 | vs KENT | L 68-75 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
+6.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−4.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−8.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−10.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
−4.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−19.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+12.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−5.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
+1.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
+3.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−1.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
−6.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−23.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+10.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
+10.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−0.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−0.5
31
@TOL
TOLL 55-73
−9.5
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 52-77
−13.5
7
@ULM
ULMW 73-68
+0.5
11
vsBUF
BUFL 53-63
−11.5
14
vsKENT
KENTL 68-75
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 14avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
−2.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−15.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−16.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−32.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
+16.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−48.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+40.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−20.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
−10.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
−12.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
+15.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
+11.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−11.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+11.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
−0.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−7.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−30.5
31
@TOL
TOLL 55-73
−18.5
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 52-77
−8.5
7
@ULM
ULMW 73-68
−2.5
11
vsBUF
BUFL 53-63
−25.5
14
vsKENT
KENTL 68-75
−0.5
over 6under 17avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ohio
24 games played
Straight up
11-13
46% wins
Against the spread
9-15
38% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vsBGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vsMASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsBUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @TOL | L 85-101 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @BALL | L 71-76 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | vsNIU | W 80-77 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 23 | vsAKR | L 65-86 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 27 | @KENT | L 57-72 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 31 | @BUF | W 95-83 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vs WMU | W 91-71 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ ODU | L 72-78 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 13 | @M-OH | L 74-90 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
−13.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−10.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
−8.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−14.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−9.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+14.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+9.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−9.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 74-90
−8.5
covered 9didn’t cover 15avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
+24.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−0.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
+2.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 65-86
−16.5
27
@KENT
KENTL 57-72
−33.5
31
@BUF
BUFW 95-83
+21.5
3
vsWMU
WMUW 91-71
+6.5
7
@ODU
ODUL 72-78
−6.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 74-90
+0.5
over 13under 11avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ball State
6-17 overall · 3-9 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Kent State68–75
- Lvs Buffalo53–63
- W@ UL Monroe73–68
- L@ Bowling Green52–77
- L@ Toledo55–73
3 days since their last game.
Ohio
11-13 overall · 7-6 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Miami OH74–90
- L@ Old Dominion72–78
- Wvs W Michigan91–71
- W@ Buffalo95–83
- L@ Kent State57–72
4 days since their last game.