University Credit Union Center · at UC Davis · Conference game
Closing line
UCD -5.5✓ UCD covered by 3.5
UCD -5.5✓ UCD covered by 3.5Closing total169.5Under by 44.5
 CP | This season | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| 7-15 | Record | 12-9 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 11-9 |
| 13-9 | O/U | 12-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CP 81–87 UCD · ✓ UCD (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 22 | 36 | 58 |
| UCD | 21 | 46 | 67 |
1st half: CP 22, UCD 21 (CP by 1). The model had UCD by 3.5 and a total of 78.2 (actual 43).
Team stats
| CP | UCD | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-57 32% | Field goals | 22-61 36% |
| 8-32 25% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 14-14 100% | Free throws | 15-17 88% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 41 15 off |
| 8 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa G | 33 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 2-12 | 0-6 |
| Jake Davis G | 32 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 30 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-4 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Cayden Ward G | 25 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 4-12 | 3-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jess Esso Essis G | 23 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Austin Goode F | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jackson Mosley PG | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Ali Assran F | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jason Scott, Kieran Elliott, Eric Brown, Aaron Price Jr., Luka Tarlac
| UCD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Daughtery Jr. G | 34 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-10 | 2-7 |
| Marcus Wilson G | 33 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 8-16 | 1-4 |
| Connor Sevilla G | 30 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 6-16 | 5-13 |
| Jalen Stokes G | 16 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Niko Rocak F | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brayden Fagbemi G | 33 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Nils Cooper G | 23 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Chappell F | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Omer Suljanovic F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chase Rawlins, Ylan Esso-Essis, Jonathan Noudjihidi, Abdullah Amzil
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCD -5.5
ModelUCD -6.2
Model edgeUCD +0.7
W UCD covered
Total
Market169.5
Model167.3
Model edgeUnder 2.2
W Under
Projected score
CP 80.6 · UCD 86.7
CP 58 · UCD 67
Win probability
UCD 70%
1st half
Spread
UCD -3.5
CP -1.0
Total
78.2
43 points
Projected score
CP 37.3 · UCD 40.9
CP 22 · UCD 21
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCD -6.5
1 → CP
CloseUCD -5.5
1 pt toward CP
Total
Open170.5
▼ 1
Close169.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CP +205 · UCD -250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCD -6.5 · closed UCD -5.5 · moved 1 toward CPmodel UCD -6
model UCD -6
Opened 170.5 · closed 169.5 · moved 1 downmodel 167.5
model 167.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| UCD | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
CP 3–7 UCDUCD leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CP has won the last 2 meetings · CP 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025-26 | UCD 78 @ CP 84 | CP +1.5 | CP W |
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | CP 86 vs UCD 76 | UCD +1.5 | CP W |
| Jan 16, 2024-25 | UCD 65 @ CP 54 | CP -5.5 | UCD W |
| Dec 5, 2024-25 | CP 66 @ UCD 77 | UCD -2.5 | UCD W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | UCD 59 @ CP 52 | CP +9.5 | CP W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cal Poly
22 games played
Straight up
7-15
32% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vs UCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vs IDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCSD | W 67-65 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | @ LBSU | L 66-74 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | @ CSUN | L 90-95 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 10 | vsUCD | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vs HAW | L 66-86 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 22 | @ UCSB | L 67-107 | +8.5 | L −31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | vsCSUF | L 78-93 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 29 | @ CSUB | W 104-79 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 31 | @UCR | W 94-87 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 5 | vsCSUN | L 96-97 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 177.5 | O 193 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
+10.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−5.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+1.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
+7.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−14.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
−31.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−13.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+23.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+8.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
−42.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−22.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+9.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
−6.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−8.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
+14.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−2.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+21.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+18.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+15.5
over 13under 9avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
UC Davis
21 games played
Straight up
12-9
57% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-8
60% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs NDSU | W 80-68 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 9 | @ PORT | L 63-67 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAC | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | @ NEV | W 75-71 | +12.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 21 | @ COLO | L 79-95 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 24 | vs UL | W 77-56 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 4 | @HAW | L 69-75 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | @ ORE | L 62-104 | +13.5 | L −28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vsSEA | L 78-79 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 21 | @ IDST | W 93-83 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 1 | vsCSUN | W 89-80 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 3 | vsCSUB | L 79-81 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | @UCSB | W 93-86 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 10 | @CP | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vsCSUF | W 74-69 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 166.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 17 | vs UCI | W 75-72 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 22 | vsUCSD | L 74-80 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 24 | vsUCR | W 74-66 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 29 | @CSUN | L 78-94 | +3.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | @CSUB | W 80-72 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 5 | vsUCSB | W 85-75 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsNDSU
NDSUW 80-68
+10.5
9
@PORT
PORTL 63-67
−2.5
14
vsSAC
SACW 77-73
−0.5
18
@NEV
NEVW 75-71
+16.5
21
@COLO
COLOL 79-95
−1.5
24
vsUL
ULW 77-56
+11.5
13
@ORE
OREL 62-104
−28.5
17
vsSEA
SEAL 78-79
+1.5
21
@IDST
IDSTW 93-83
+15.5
1
vsCSUN
CSUNW 89-80
+5.5
3
vsCSUB
CSUBL 79-81
−11.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBW 93-86
+11.5
10
@CP
CPL 78-84
−7.5
15
vsCSUF
CSUFW 74-69
+1.5
17
vsUCI
UCIW 75-72
+6.5
22
vsUCSD
UCSDL 74-80
−4.5
24
vsUCR
UCRW 74-66
−1.5
29
@CSUN
CSUNL 78-94
−12.5
31
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-72
+2.5
5
vsUCSB
UCSBW 85-75
+13.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsNDSU
NDSUW 80-68
+5.5
9
@PORT
PORTL 63-67
−21.5
14
vsSAC
SACW 77-73
−1.5
18
@NEV
NEVW 75-71
+2.5
21
@COLO
COLOL 79-95
+21.5
24
vsUL
ULW 77-56
−3.5
13
@ORE
OREL 62-104
+19.5
17
vsSEA
SEAL 78-79
+13.5
21
@IDST
IDSTW 93-83
+32.5
1
vsCSUN
CSUNW 89-80
+6.5
3
vsCSUB
CSUBL 79-81
+8.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBW 93-86
+31.5
10
@CP
CPL 78-84
−6.5
15
vsCSUF
CSUFW 74-69
−23.5
17
vsUCI
UCIW 75-72
−1.5
22
vsUCSD
UCSDL 74-80
+1.5
24
vsUCR
UCRW 74-66
−9.5
29
@CSUN
CSUNL 78-94
+8.5
31
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-72
−0.5
5
vsUCSB
UCSBW 85-75
+12.5
over 12under 8avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cal Poly
7-15 overall · 5-7 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs CSU Northridge96–97
- W@ UC Riverside94–87
- W@ Bakersfield104–79
- Lvs Fullerton78–93
- L@ Santa Barbara67–107
2 days since their last game.
UC Davis
12-9 overall · 7-5 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Santa Barbara85–75
- W@ Bakersfield80–72
- L@ CSU Northridge78–94
- Wvs UC Riverside74–66
- Lvs UC San Diego74–80
2 days since their last game.