Rupp Arena · at Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
UK -1.5✓ UK covered by 12.5
UK -1.5✓ UK covered by 12.5Closing total157.5Over by 10.5
 VAN | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 22-6 | Record | 18-10 |
| 15-13 | ATS | 14-14 |
| 13-15 | O/U | 13-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAN 79–80 UK · ✓ UK (53%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 31 | 46 | 77 |
| UK | 46 | 45 | 91 |
1st half: VAN 31, UK 46 (UK by 15). The model had UK by 0.4 and a total of 74.0 (actual 77).
Team stats
| VAN | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-58 52% | Field goals | 30-51 59% |
| 7-28 25% | 3-pointers | 11-22 50% |
| 10-11 91% | Free throws | 20-25 80% |
| 22 6 off | Rebounds | 29 6 off |
| 16 | Assists | 16 |
| 2 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 0 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| VAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Tanner G | 38 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 9-12 | 0-3 |
| Tyler Nickel F | 31 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-15 | 3-12 |
| Duke Miles G | 28 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| AK Okereke F | 28 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Devin McGlockton F | 15 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Washington F | 27 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 7-8 | 0-0 |
| Chandler Bing F | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Leverett C | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Harris F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Mason Nicholson, Coleson Messer, Jaylon Dean-Vines, Mike James, George Kimble III, Miles Keeffe, Frankie Collins
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 37 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 5-10 | 3-7 |
| Otega Oweh G | 34 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 9-16 | 0-3 |
| Collin Chandler G | 31 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 7-10 | 6-8 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 27 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mo Dioubate F | 24 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Trent Noah F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kam Williams, Walker Horn, Braydon Hawthorne, Reece Potter, Jaland Lowe, Zach Tow, Jayden Quaintance
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUK -1.5
ModelUK -0.9
Model edgeVAN +0.6
L UK covered
Total
Market157.5
Model158.2
Model edgeOver 0.7
W Over
Projected score
VAN 78.7 · UK 79.6
VAN 77 · UK 91
Win probability
UK 53%
1st half
Spread
UK -0.4
UK -15.0
Total
74.0
77 points
Projected score
VAN 36.8 · UK 37.2
VAN 31 · UK 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVAN -1.5
3 → UK
CloseUK -1.5
3 pts toward UK
Total
Open155.5
▲ 2
Close157.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
VAN -102 · UK -118
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VAN -1.5 · closed UK -1.5 · moved 3 toward UKmodel UK -1
model UK -1
Opened 155.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 2 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| UK | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
VAN 4–7 UKUK leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · VAN 7-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025-26 | UK 55 @ VAN 80 | VAN -5.5 | VAN W |
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | VAN 61 @ UK 82 | UK -4.5 | UK W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | UK 69 @ VAN 74 | VAN +2.5 | VAN W |
| Mar 6, 2023-24 | VAN 77 @ UK 93 | UK -18.5 | VAN W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | UK 109 @ VAN 77 | VAN +8.5 | UK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Vanderbilt
28 games played
Straight up
22-6
79% wins
Against the spread
15-13
54% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-15
46% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIP | W 105-61 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 154.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 8 | @ UCF | W 105-93 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 12 | vs EKU | W 92-62 | -28.5 | W +1.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs UAPB | W 104-75 | -41.5 | L −12.5 | 172.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 20 | vs TXSO | W 109-74 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 164.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs WKU | W 83-78 | -18.5 | L −13.5 | 168.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 27 | vs VCU | W 89-74 | -6.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMC | W 96-71 | -4.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | vs SMU | W 88-69 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | vs CARK | W 83-72 | -36.5 | L −25.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 17 | @ MEM | W 77-70 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | @ WAKE | W 98-67 | -5.5 | W +25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 29 | vs NHVN | W 96-53 | -39.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | @ SC | W 83-71 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 7 | vs ALA | W 96-90 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vs LSU | W 84-73 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ TEX | L 64-80 | -3.5 | L −19.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs FLA | L 94-98 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 164.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 20 | @ ARK | L 68-93 | +1.5 | L −23.5 | 173.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 24 | @ MSST | W 88-56 | -7.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 27 | vsUK | W 80-55 | -5.5 | W +19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs MISS | W 71-68 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 7 | vs OU | L 91-92 | -11.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 183 |
| Feb 10 | @ AUB | W 84-76 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 14 | vs TA&M | W 82-69 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 165.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 18 | @ MIZ | L 80-81 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | vs TENN | L 65-69 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 25 | vs UGA | W 88-80 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIP
LIPW 105-61
+17.5
8
@UCF
UCFW 105-93
+1.5
12
vsEKU
EKUW 92-62
+1.5
15
vsUAPB
UAPBW 104-75
−12.5
20
vsTXSO
TXSOW 109-74
−1.5
26
vsWKU
WKUW 83-78
−13.5
27
vsVCU
VCUW 89-74
+8.5
28
vsSMC
SMCW 96-71
+20.5
3
vsSMU
SMUW 88-69
+8.5
13
vsCARK
CARKW 83-72
−25.5
17
@MEM
MEMW 77-70
−2.5
21
@WAKE
WAKEW 98-67
+25.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 96-53
+3.5
3
@SC
SCW 83-71
+2.5
7
vsALA
ALAW 96-90
+2.5
10
vsLSU
LSUW 84-73
−2.5
14
@TEX
TEXL 64-80
−19.5
17
vsFLA
FLAL 94-98
−2.5
20
@ARK
ARKL 68-93
−23.5
24
@MSST
MSSTW 88-56
+24.5
27
vsUK
UKW 80-55
+19.5
31
vsMISS
MISSW 71-68
−7.5
7
vsOU
OUL 91-92
−12.5
10
@AUB
AUBW 84-76
+11.5
14
vsTA&M
TA&MW 82-69
+5.5
18
@MIZ
MIZL 80-81
−4.5
21
vsTENN
TENNL 65-69
−6.5
25
vsUGA
UGAW 88-80
+0.5
covered 15didn’t cover 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIP
LIPW 105-61
+11.5
8
@UCF
UCFW 105-93
+31.5
12
vsEKU
EKUW 92-62
−14.5
15
vsUAPB
UAPBW 104-75
+6.5
20
vsTXSO
TXSOW 109-74
+18.5
26
vsWKU
WKUW 83-78
−7.5
27
vsVCU
VCUW 89-74
+1.5
28
vsSMC
SMCW 96-71
+17.5
3
vsSMU
SMUW 88-69
−8.5
13
vsCARK
CARKW 83-72
−3.5
17
@MEM
MEMW 77-70
−12.5
21
@WAKE
WAKEW 98-67
+0.5
29
vsNHVN
NHVNW 96-53
+3.5
3
@SC
SCW 83-71
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAW 96-90
+9.5
10
vsLSU
LSUW 84-73
−2.5
14
@TEX
TEXL 64-80
−19.5
17
vsFLA
FLAL 94-98
+27.5
20
@ARK
ARKL 68-93
−12.5
24
@MSST
MSSTW 88-56
−15.5
27
vsUK
UKW 80-55
−20.5
31
vsMISS
MISSW 71-68
−10.5
7
vsOU
OUL 91-92
+23.5
10
@AUB
AUBW 84-76
−1.5
14
vsTA&M
TA&MW 82-69
−14.5
18
@MIZ
MIZL 80-81
+6.5
21
vsTENN
TENNL 65-69
−16.5
25
vsUGA
UGAW 88-80
+4.5
over 13under 15avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
28 games played
Straight up
18-10
64% wins
Against the spread
14-14
50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-15
46% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vsMIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vsMSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vsTEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsMISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vsOU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vsUGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @AUB | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @SC | W 72-63 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
+2.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
+1.5
covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
−4.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
−16.5
over 13under 15avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Vanderbilt
22-6 overall · 9-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia88–80
- Lvs Tennessee65–69
- L@ Missouri80–81
- Wvs Texas A&M82–69
- W@ Auburn84–76
3 days since their last game.
Kentucky
18-10 overall · 9-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ South Carolina72–63
- L@ Auburn74–75
- Lvs Georgia78–86
- L@ Florida83–92
- Wvs Tennessee74–71
4 days since their last game.