Pete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU · Conference game
Closing line
ARK -4.5✓ ARK covered by 24.5
ARK -4.5✓ ARK covered by 24.5Closing total159.5Under by 6.5
| ARK | This season | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 17-6 | Record | 14-9 |
| 15-8 | ATS | 13-10 |
| 12-11 | O/U | 10-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARK 84–81 LSU · ✓ ARK (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 42 | 49 | 91 |
| LSU | 27 | 35 | 62 |
1st half: ARK 42, LSU 27 (ARK by 15). The model had ARK by 1.7 and a total of 77.2 (actual 69).
Team stats
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-62 56% | Field goals | 21-68 31% |
| 3-12 25% | 3-pointers | 3-21 14% |
| 18-24 75% | Free throws | 17-27 63% |
| 36 8 off | Rebounds | 43 21 off |
| 10 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 10 | Blocks | 0 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 64 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 21 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Brazile F | 37 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 36 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 13-22 | 1-4 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 36 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Meleek Thomas G | 34 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 6-13 | 1-4 |
| Nick Pringle F | 17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malique Ewin F | 18 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Sealy F | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Karuletwa G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Elmir Dzafic C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amere Brown G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ayden Kelley G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, DJ Wagner, Karter Knox
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Sutton F | 37 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 7-16 | 1-5 |
| Pablo Tamba F | 29 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Max Mackinnon G | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 18 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-0 |
| Rashad King G | 18 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Reece G | 33 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Robert Miller III F | 22 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| PJ Carter G | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| Mazi Mosley G | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Jaden Bobbett G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ron Zipper, Matt Gilhool, Marcus Vaughn, Jalen Reed, Dedan Thomas Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARK -4.5
ModelARK -2.6
Model edgeLSU +1.9
L ARK covered
Total
Market159.5
Model165.2
Model edgeOver 5.7
L Under
Projected score
ARK 83.9 · LSU 81.3
ARK 91 · LSU 62
Win probability
ARK 59%
1st half
Spread
ARK -1.7
ARK -15.0
Total
77.2
69 points
Projected score
ARK 39.4 · LSU 37.8
ARK 42 · LSU 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARK -3.5
1 → ARK
CloseARK -4.5
1 pt toward ARK
Total
Open163.5
▼ 4
Close159.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
ARK -205 · LSU +170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARK -3.5 · closed ARK -4.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -2.5
model ARK -2.5
Opened 163.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 4 downmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| LSU | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
ARK 7–3 LSUARK leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ARK has won the last 2 meetings · ARK 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025-26 | LSU 81 @ ARK 85 | ARK -10.5 | LSU W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | LSU 58 @ ARK 70 | ARK -9.5 | ARK W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | ARK 74 @ LSU 78 | LSU -0.5 | LSU W |
| Mar 6, 2023-24 | LSU 83 @ ARK 94 | ARK -4.5 | ARK W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | ARK 74 @ LSU 95 | LSU -4.5 | LSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas
23 games played
Straight up
17-6
74% wins
Against the spread
15-8
65% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-11
52% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs JKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs TTU | W 93-86 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vs QUC | W 108-80 | -23.5 | W +4.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | vs HOU | L 85-94 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs JMU | W 103-74 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 3 | vs TENN | W 86-75 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 7 | @ MISS | W 94-87 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | @ AUB | L 73-95 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | vs SC | W 108-74 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | @ UGA | L 76-90 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 181.5 | U 166 |
| Jan 20 | vs VAN | W 93-68 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 173.5 | U 161 |
| Jan 24 | vsLSU | W 85-81 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 27 | @ OU | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 167.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 31 | vs UK | L 77-85 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSST | W 88-68 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+9.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+4.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
−3.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+5.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+12.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+3.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−19.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+21.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−11.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
+23.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
−6.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
+0.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
−14.5
7
@MSST
MSSTW 88-68
+14.5
covered 15didn’t cover 8avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
13
vsTTU
TTUW 93-86
+23.5
16
vsQUC
QUCW 108-80
+18.5
20
vsHOU
HOUL 85-94
+32.5
29
vsJMU
JMUW 103-74
+17.5
3
vsTENN
TENNW 86-75
+2.5
7
@MISS
MISSW 94-87
+27.5
10
@AUB
AUBL 73-95
−1.5
14
vsSC
SCW 108-74
+26.5
17
@UGA
UGAL 76-90
−15.5
20
vsVAN
VANW 93-68
−12.5
24
vsLSU
LSUW 85-81
+2.5
27
@OU
OUW 83-79
−5.5
31
vsUK
UKL 77-85
+2.5
7
@MSST
MSSTW 88-68
−7.5
over 12under 11avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
LSU
23 games played
Straight up
14-9
61% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-13
43% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vs NOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vsTTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs SMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs SELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 29 | vs USM | W 90-62 | -21.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 3 | @ TA&M | L 72-75 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | vsSC | L 68-78 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | @VAN | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | vsUK | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | vs MIZ | W 78-70 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | @ FLA | L 61-79 | +15.5 | L −2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ARK | L 81-85 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 28 | vsMSST | L 66-80 | -7.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @SC | W 92-87 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 7 | vsUGA | L 71-83 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
+6.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
+2.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
−17.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
+2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
+2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
+6.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−2.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+6.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−21.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+2.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−10.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
−2.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
−21.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
+0.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
−2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
−2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
−0.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−18.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+2.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−8.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+31.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−7.5
over 10under 13avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas
17-6 overall · 7-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Mississippi St88–68
- Lvs Kentucky77–85
- W@ Oklahoma83–79
- Wvs LSU85–81
- Wvs Vanderbilt93–68
3 days since their last game.
LSU
14-9 overall · 2-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Georgia71–83
- W@ South Carolina92–87
- Lvs Mississippi St66–80
- L@ Arkansas81–85
- L@ Florida61–79
3 days since their last game.