Picks · Next 7 days · Updated Oct 23, 9:07 PM ET
About 50–54% of picks like these have hit. 3 of 21 clear the 52.4% break-even at −110. How to read this ⓘ
5 NFL spread3 NFL 1H spread8 College spread3 College total2 College 1H total
The 21 picks
Ranked by how often past picks like each one won, then by the size of the gap against the line. Tap a pick for the reasons.
1
Over 40.5
54%hit rate
- +Our model projects 46.5 points against a 40.5 total, 6 points over.
- −Total moved down 2. 42.5 → 40.5.
Past picks like this: College full game total picks with a 5+ point edge: 338–290 (53.8%), 2019–26 · Game card ›
2
Over 43.5
54%hit rate
- +Our model projects 49.3 points against a 43.5 total, 5.8 points over.
- −Total moved down 4. 47.5 → 43.5.
Past picks like this: College full game total picks with a 5+ point edge: 338–290 (53.8%), 2019–26 · Game card ›
3
Over 49.5
54%hit rate
- +Our model projects 55.2 points against a 49.5 total, 5.7 points over.
- +Both teams trending Over (9-3 combined). Their games this season have mostly gone over the total.
- −Total moved down 2. 51.5 → 49.5.
Past picks like this: College full game total picks with a 5+ point edge: 338–290 (53.8%), 2019–26 · Game card ›
4
Baltimore Ravens +1.5
52%hit rate
- +Our model makes it BAL -1; the market says CIN -1.5. That’s a 2.6-point gap toward Baltimore Ravens.
- +Cincinnati Bengals 1-3 ATS as a favorite. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
- −Market moved toward Cincinnati Bengals. 5 pts (BAL -3.5 → CIN -1.5).
Past picks like this: NFL full game spread picks with a 2.5–7 point edge: 322–301 (51.7%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
5
Philadelphia Eagles +4.5
52%hit rate
- +Our model makes it DAL -0.5; the market says DAL -4.5. That’s a 4-point gap toward Philadelphia Eagles.
- +Dallas Cowboys 1-3 ATS as a favorite. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
- −Market moved toward Dallas Cowboys. 7.5 pts (PHI -3 → DAL -4.5).
Past picks like this: NFL full game spread picks with a 4+ point edge: 159–149 (51.6%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
6
Kansas City Chiefs +3
51%hit rate
- +Our model makes it KC -1; the market says SEA -3. That’s a 4-point gap toward Kansas City Chiefs.
- +Seattle Seahawks ATS struggles (1-3-2). Seattle Seahawks have covered only 25% of their games with a line this season.
- +Seattle Seahawks 1-3-2 ATS as a favorite. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
Past picks like this: NFL full game spread picks with a 3+ point edge: 273–259 (51.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
7
San Francisco 49ers -2.5
51%hit rate
- +Our model makes it SF -6.5; the market says SF -2.5. That’s a 4-point gap toward San Francisco 49ers.
- +Atlanta Falcons home ATS weakness (0-3). Weak against the spread at home this season.
- +San Francisco 49ers on a cross-country trip. San Francisco 49ers cross 3 time zones (2,112 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects.
More (2)
- −Market moved toward Atlanta Falcons. 2 pts (SF -4.5 → SF -2.5), through the key number 3.
- iCross-country trip: San Francisco 49ers cross 3 time zones (2,112 miles). The model allows for it.
Past picks like this: NFL full game spread picks with a 3+ point edge: 273–259 (51.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
8
New York Giants +10.5
51%hit rate
- +Our model makes it HOU -7.5; the market says HOU -10.5. That’s a 3.2-point gap toward New York Giants.
- +Houston Texans home ATS weakness (0-3). Weak against the spread at home this season.
- +Houston Texans 1-3 ATS as a favorite. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
More (1)
- −Market moved toward Houston Texans. 5 pts (HOU -5.5 → HOU -10.5), through the key number 7.
Past picks like this: NFL full game spread picks with a 3+ point edge: 273–259 (51.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
9
1H · Over 20.5
51%hit rate
- +1st-half projection: 24.2 points against a 20.5 1st-half total (DraftKings 1st-half line).
Past picks like this: College 1st half total picks: 313–299 (51.1%), 2016–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
10
1H · Over 20.5
51%hit rate
- +1st-half projection: 23.5 points against a 20.5 1st-half total (DraftKings 1st-half line).
- iAltitude: North Dakota State climb about 4,200 ft to play here. The model adds points to the home side for it.
Past picks like this: College 1st half total picks: 313–299 (51.1%), 2016–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
11
Utah -6.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it UTAH -11; the market says UTAH -6.5. That’s a 4.7-point gap toward Utah.
- +Utah ATS trend (5-1). Utah have covered 83% of their games with a line this season.
- +Utah 4-0 ATS at home. Strong against the spread at home this season.
More (1)
- iAltitude: Houston climb about 4,593 ft to play here. The model adds points to the home side for it.
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 4+ point edge: 630–620 (50.4%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
12
Indiana -7.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it IU -11.5; the market says IU -7.5. That’s a 4.2-point gap toward Indiana.
- −Indiana ATS struggles (1-6). Indiana have covered only 14% of their games with a line this season.
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 4+ point edge: 630–620 (50.4%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
13
Troy -11.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it TROY -19.5; the market says TROY -11.5. That’s a 8.1-point gap toward Troy.
- +UL Monroe ATS struggles (1-5). UL Monroe have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season.
- +UL Monroe 1-4 ATS as an underdog. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
More (1)
- −Market moved toward UL Monroe. 6 pts (TROY -17.5 → TROY -11.5).
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 5+ point edge: 381–377 (50.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
14
Tennessee +2.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it TENN -4.5; the market says SC -2.5. That’s a 7.1-point gap toward Tennessee.
- +South Carolina home ATS weakness (1-3). Weak against the spread at home this season.
- +South Carolina 1-3 ATS as a favorite. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
More (1)
- −Market moved toward South Carolina. 5 pts (TENN -2.5 → SC -2.5).
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 5+ point edge: 381–377 (50.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
15
Colorado State +1.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it CSU -5.5; the market says SDSU -1.5. That’s a 6.9-point gap toward Colorado State.
- +San Diego State ATS struggles (2-5). San Diego State have covered only 29% of their games with a line this season.
- +San Diego State away ATS weakness (0-3). Weak against the spread on the road this season.
More (2)
- −Colorado State 1-3 ATS as an underdog. Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game.
- iAltitude: San Diego State climb about 4,823 ft to play here. The model adds points to the home side for it.
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 5+ point edge: 381–377 (50.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
16
New Mexico -4.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it UNM -11; the market says UNM -4.5. That’s a 6.7-point gap toward New Mexico.
- +New Mexico ATS trend (5-1). New Mexico have covered 83% of their games with a line this season.
- +New Mexico 3-0 ATS at home. Strong against the spread at home this season.
More (1)
- iAltitude: North Dakota State climb about 4,200 ft to play here. The model adds points to the home side for it.
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 5+ point edge: 381–377 (50.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
17
UCLA -14.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it UCLA -20; the market says UCLA -14.5. That’s a 5.4-point gap toward UCLA.
- +UCLA ATS trend (6-0). UCLA have covered 100% of their games with a line this season.
- +UCLA 3-0 ATS at home. Strong against the spread at home this season.
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 5+ point edge: 381–377 (50.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
18
Colorado +13.5
50%hit rate
- +Our model makes it OKST -8.5; the market says OKST -13.5. That’s a 5.2-point gap toward Colorado.
- −Oklahoma State ATS trend (5-1). Oklahoma State have covered 83% of their games with a line this season.
Past picks like this: College full game spread picks with a 5+ point edge: 381–377 (50.3%), 2019–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
19
1H · Carolina Panthers -1.5
50%hit rate
- +1st-half projection: TB 10, CAR 13 (CAR -3) against CAR -1.5 (DraftKings 1st-half line).
Past picks like this: NFL 1st half spread picks: 479–476 (50.2%), 2016–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
20
1H · Green Bay Packers +2.5
50%hit rate
- +1st-half projection: GB 12, DET 13 (DET -1) against DET -2.5 (DraftKings 1st-half line).
Past picks like this: NFL 1st half spread picks: 479–476 (50.2%), 2016–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
21
1H · Cleveland Browns -0.5
50%hit rate
- +1st-half projection: CLE 10, TEN 8 (CLE -2) against CLE -0.5 (DraftKings 1st-half line).
Past picks like this: NFL 1st half spread picks: 479–476 (50.2%), 2016–26 · below break-even at -110 · Game card ›
Past days
10–10 (50%) on 78 distinct picks over 7 days · each pick counted once, from its last list before kickoff
Record10–1058 to play
Win rate50%break-even 52.4%
Spread9–6 · 60%54 picks
Total1–4 · 20%24 picks
Best in each category
The strongest candidate of every pick type, even when it missed the top 25
| Category | Best candidate | Game | Hit rate | In the top 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL full game spread | Baltimore Ravens +1.5 | CIN @ BAL | 52% | 5 of 5 |
| NFL full game total | No game has a big enough gap | — | 0 of 0 | |
| NFL 1st half spread | 1H · Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 | DAL @ PHI | 50% | 3 of 6 |
| NFL 1st half total | No game has a big enough gap | — | 0 of 0 | |
| College full game spread | Utah -6.5 | HOU @ UTAH | 50% | 8 of 12 |
| College full game total | Over 40.5 | M-OH @ CMU | 54% | 3 of 3 |
| College 1st half spread | 1H · UCLA -7.5 | MSU @ UCLA | 49% | 0 of 14 |
| College 1st half total | 1H · Over 24.5 | ORE @ ILL | 51% | 2 of 5 |
How we pick
- Games: every NFL and college game with a spread and total that kicks off in the next 7 days. The list refreshes about every 10 minutes and changes as lines move.
- Full game: our power ratings plus an XGBoost layer trained on how past games finished against the closing line. A spread pick needs a gap of at least 2.5 points (NFL) or 3 (college) from the line; much bigger gaps are skipped because they usually mean news the model can’t see. A total pick needs 5 (NFL) or 5 (college).
- 1st half: the full-game projection scaled to the 1st half (NFL adds 1st-half ratings), against the posted 1st-half line (ESPN for the NFL, The Odds API’s books for many college games). A game with no posted 1st-half line gets no 1st-half pick: an estimated line is never used.
- Hit rate: the record of the model’s walk-forward picks in past seasons with at least the same edge (full game) or of all its 1st-half picks of that type. A spread pick at the smallest gap shows a range (“a–b point edge”): the model’s own spread lean band, the same record as on Deep Dive. “N+ point edge” counts every past lean at least that far from the line, including the bigger gaps this page skips. Each past pick used only data from before kickoff. The model’s own win probabilities run hotter than these records, so we show the records.
- Ranking: highest hit rate first, then the biggest gap against the line. At most one spread pick and one total pick per game, and nothing below 50%.
Lines move, and a 53% pick still loses almost half the time.