When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
20 games · 2025 · Seattle Seahawks · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 11 overs, 18% had cashed by halftime and 45% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 10% of games.
All 20 games
2025 · Seattle Seahawks · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -4.5 | 45.5 | 391242 | U | SEA Q2 | 29–13 |
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -2.5 | 45.5 | 13305858 | Q3 | SEA Q1 | 27–31 |
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -7 | 44.5 | 17304047 | Q4 | SEA Q1 | 6–41 |
2025 · Week 18 |
SEA -2.5 | 48.5 | 7131316 | U | SEA Q1 | 13–3 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 362037 | U | SEA Q3 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 16 |
SEA -1.5 | 42.5 | 1020376075 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 37–38 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SEA -12.5 | 41.5 | 6192234 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
16–18 |
2025 · Week 14 |
SEA -7 | 44.5 | 6122946 | Q4 | SEA Q3 | 37–9 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SEA -12.5 | 42.5 | 0131926 | U | SEA Q2 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SEA -11.5 | 41.5 | 6194754 | Q3 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip |
30–24 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 17232640 | U | SEA Q3 Late cover flip |
19–21 |
2025 · Week 10 |
SEA -7.5 | 44.5 | 21455366 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 9 |
SEA -2.5 | 47.5 | 7384552 | Q4 | SEA Q1 | 38–14 |
2025 · Week 7 |
SEA -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203946 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2025 · Week 6 |
SEA -1.5 | 47.5 | 6192632 | U | SEA Q2 | 20–12 |
2025 · Week 5 |
SEA -3.5 | 45.5 | 3204973 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 38–35 |
2025 · Week 4 |
SEA -1.5 | 43.5 | 10172343 | U | SEA Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SEA -6.5 | 41.5 | 21445057 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 13–44 |
2025 · Week 2 |
PIT -3.5 | 40.5 | 13212848 | Q4 | SEA Q3 | 31–17 |
2025 · Week 1 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 7171730 | U | SF Q4 Late cover flip |
17–13 |
SEA
NE
LAR
SF
CAR
IND
ATL
MIN
TEN
ARI
WSH
HOU
JAX
TB
NO
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 10
Q2 20% 4
Q3 20% 4
Q4 10% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 78% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 84% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 5 | 100% 5 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 7 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.