When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2025 · San Francisco 49ers · pick one to list those games
58% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 16% of games.
All 19 games
2025 · San Francisco 49ers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -7 | 44.5 | 17304047 | Q4 | SEA Q1 | 6–41 |
2025 · Postseason |
PHI -5.5 | 44.5 | 13232642 | U | SF Q4 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
SEA -2.5 | 48.5 | 7131316 | U | SEA Q1 | 13–3 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SF -4.5 | 51.5 | 28496380 | Q3 | CHI Q4 Lead lost |
38–42 |
2025 · Week 16 |
SF -4.5 | 46.5 | 21415475 | Q3 | SF Q1 | 48–27 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SF -12.5 | 44.5 | 10274161 | Q4 | SF Q3 Late cover flip |
24–37 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SF -5.5 | 35.5 | 7182534 | U | SF Q3 | 26–8 |
2025 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 48.5 | 7132629 | U | SF Q3 | 9–20 |
2025 · Week 11 |
SF -3.5 | 48.5 | 20354563 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 41–22 |
2025 · Week 10 |
LAR -6.5 | 49.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | LAR Q1 | 42–26 |
2025 · Week 9 |
SF -2.5 | 47.5 | 14243058 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
34–24 |
2025 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 41.5 | 3233841 | U | HOU Q2 | 15–26 |
2025 · Week 7 |
ATL -1.5 | 46.5 | 0132330 | U | SF Q1 | 10–20 |
2025 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 46.5 | 10364649 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
19–30 |
2025 · Week 5 |
LAR -8.5 | 43.5 | 724344649 | Q4 | SF Q1 Late over |
26–23 |
2025 · Week 4 |
SF -3.5 | 46.5 | 3234047 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 26–21 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SF -1.5 | 43.5 | 091231 | U | ARI Q3 | 15–16 |
2025 · Week 2 |
SF -2.5 | 40.5 | 6233347 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 26–21 |
2025 · Week 1 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 7171730 | U | SF Q4 Late cover flip |
17–13 |
SF
SEA
PHI
CHI
IND
TEN
CLE
CAR
ARI
LAR
NYG
HOU
ATL
TB
JAX
NOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 10
Q2 11% 2
Q3 21% 4
Q4 16% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 79% of 19 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 83% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.