When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2025 · Houston Texans · pick one to list those games
37% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 19 games
2025 · Houston Texans · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3 | 40.5 | 10313744 | Q4 | NE Q1 | 16–28 |
2025 · Postseason |
HOU -3 | 38.5 | 3131336 | U | HOU Q4 | 30–6 |
2025 · Week 18 |
HOU -9.5 | 37.5 | 16405368 | Q2 | IND Q1 | 30–38 |
2025 · Week 17 |
LAC -1.5 | 40.5 | 14172736 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 16 |
HOU -14.5 | 39.5 | 7203044 | Q4 | LV Q1 | 21–23 |
2025 · Week 15 |
HOU -10.5 | 42.5 | 17304460 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 20–40 |
2025 · Week 14 |
KC -4.5 | 41.5 | 3102030 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–10 |
2025 · Week 13 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162636 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 12 |
BUF -4.5 | 44.5 | 9363942 | U | HOU Q1 | 19–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 37.5 | 331629 | U | TEN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 10 |
HOU -2.5 | 38.5 | 10303965 | Q3 | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–36 |
2025 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 3192233 | U | DEN Q4 | 18–15 |
2025 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 41.5 | 3233841 | U | HOU Q2 | 15–26 |
2025 · Week 7 |
SEA -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203946 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2025 · Week 5 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 10274454 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 44–10 |
2025 · Week 4 |
HOU -7.5 | 39.5 | 36626 | U | HOU Q4 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 3 |
JAX -1.5 | 42.5 | 7101327 | U | JAX Q1 Late cover flip |
10–17 |
2025 · Week 2 |
HOU -2.5 | 42.5 | 17242439 | U | TB Q2 | 20–19 |
2025 · Week 1 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162323 | U | LAR Q3 | 9–14 |
HOU
NE
PIT
IND
LAC
LV
ARI
KC
BUF
TEN
JAX
DEN
SF
SEA
BAL
TB
LARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 63% 12
Q2 11% 2
Q3 5% 1
Q4 21% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 74% of 19 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 76% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.