When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2025 · Denver Broncos · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 37% of games.
All 19 games
2025 · Denver Broncos · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3.5 | 43.5 | 7141717 | U | DEN Q1 | 10–7 |
2025 · Postseason |
DEN -1.5 | 45.5 | 1030406063 | Q4 | DEN OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–33 |
2025 · Week 18 |
DEN -15.5 | 37.5 | 10131622 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
3–19 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DEN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3132333 | U | KC Q1 | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DEN -3.5 | 46.5 | 7274854 | Q3 | JAX Q1 | 34–20 |
2025 · Week 15 |
GB -1.5 | 42.5 | 3305060 | Q3 | DEN Q3 | 26–34 |
2025 · Week 14 |
DEN -8.5 | 40.5 | 14212841 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–17 |
2025 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 43.5 | 320344053 | OT | WSH Q1 Late over |
27–26 |
2025 · Week 11 |
KC -4.5 | 45.5 | 9122641 | U | DEN Q1 Lead lost |
19–22 |
2025 · Week 10 |
DEN -9.5 | 41.5 | 7141717 | U | LV Q1 | 7–10 |
2025 · Week 9 |
HOU -2.5 | 41.5 | 3192233 | U | DEN Q4 | 18–15 |
2025 · Week 8 |
DEN -4.5 | 51.5 | 17374768 | Q4 | DEN Q1 | 24–44 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DEN -7.5 | 40.5 | 7131965 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
32–33 |
2025 · Week 6 |
DEN -6.5 | 43.5 | 16162124 | U | NYJ Q1 | 13–11 |
2025 · Week 5 |
PHI -4.5 | 44.5 | 6132038 | U | DEN Q4 | 21–17 |
2025 · Week 4 |
DEN -7.5 | 44.5 | 10242431 | U | DEN Q2 | 3–28 |
2025 · Week 3 |
LAC -2.5 | 45.5 | 3173043 | U | LAC Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DEN -1.5 | 43.5 | 13415157 | Q3 | IND Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–29 |
2025 · Week 1 |
DEN -9.5 | 43.5 | 6192532 | U | TEN Q1 | 12–20 |
NE
DEN
BUF
LAC
KC
JAX
GB
LV
WSH
HOU
DAL
NYG
NYJ
PHI
CIN
IND
TENWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 10
Q2 5% 1
Q3 5% 1
Q4 32% 6
OT 5% 1
The team leading at halftime won 63% and covered 50% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 67% and covered 44% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.