When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2025 · Chicago Bears · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 26% of games.
All 19 games
2025 · Chicago Bears · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 720203437 | U | CHI Q2 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2025 · Postseason |
GB -1.5 | 46.5 | 10242758 | Q4 | CHI Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 18 |
CHI -3 | 51.5 | 3131635 | U | DET Q1 | 19–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SF -4.5 | 51.5 | 28496380 | Q3 | CHI Q4 Lead lost |
38–42 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | 06163238 | U | CHI OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–22 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CHI -7.5 | 38.5 | 14143134 | U | CHI Q1 | 3–31 |
2025 · Week 14 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 0173549 | Q4 | GB Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
21–28 |
2025 · Week 13 |
PHI -7 | 43.5 | 7131939 | U | CHI Q1 | 24–15 |
2025 · Week 12 |
CHI -2.5 | 47.5 | 14384559 | Q4 | CHI Q3 | 28–31 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIN -3 | 47.5 | 3131936 | U | CHI Q2 | 19–17 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CHI -4.5 | 44.5 | 7172744 | U | NYG Q2 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2025 · Week 9 |
CHI -2.5 | 51.5 | 17375889 | Q3 | CHI Q3 | 47–42 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BAL -2.5 | 44.5 | 6162246 | Q4 | BAL Q2 Late over |
16–30 |
2025 · Week 7 |
CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 3273740 | U | CHI Q2 | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 6 |
WSH -5.5 | 48.5 | 6203349 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LV -2.5 | 46.5 | 10233749 | Q4 | CHI Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 3 |
DAL -1.5 | 50.5 | 17384545 | U | CHI Q1 | 14–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DET -6.5 | 45.5 | 21425273 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 21–52 |
2025 · Week 1 |
CHI -1.5 | 43.5 | 7162351 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late over |
27–24 |
LAR
CHI
GB
DET
SF
CLE
PHI
PIT
MIN
NYG
CIN
BAL
NO
WSH
LV
DALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 32% 6
Q2 32% 6
Q3 11% 2
Q4 21% 4
OT 5% 1
The team leading at halftime won 61% and covered 61% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 67% and covered 67% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.