When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2024 · Los Angeles Rams · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 42% of games.
All 19 games
2024 · Los Angeles Rams · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -7.5 | 43.5 | 20233150 | Q4 | LAR Q1 Late over |
22–28 |
2024 · Postseason |
MIN -2.5 | 47.5 | 10273636 | U | LAR Q1 | 9–27 |
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 0101622 | U | ARI Q3 | 9–13 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAR -2.5 | 46.5 | 6151528 | U | LAR Q4 | 19–9 |
2024 · Week 15 |
SF -2.5 | 48.5 | 36918 | U | LAR Q4 | 12–6 |
2024 · Week 14 |
BUF -3.5 | 50.5 | 14385986 | Q3 | LAR Q1 | 42–44 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAR -2.5 | 48.5 | 361335 | U | LAR Q4 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 47.5 | 10204157 | Q4 | PHI Q2 Late over |
37–20 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAR -4.5 | 42.5 | 7244150 | Q4 | LAR Q3 | 28–22 |
2024 · Week 10 |
LAR -2.5 | 50.5 | 7162338 | U | MIA Q1 | 23–15 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LAR -2 | 48.5 | 016264046 | U | LAR OT | 26–20 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIN -2.5 | 46.5 | 21283850 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 20–30 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LAR -7.5 | 43.5 | 0202935 | U | LV Q4 Late cover flip |
15–20 |
2024 · Week 5 |
GB -2.5 | 49.5 | 7233743 | U | GB Q3 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CHI -3.5 | 40.5 | 3162642 | Q4 | CHI Q2 | 18–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 14213551 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
ARI -1.5 | 47.5 | 14274451 | Q4 | ARI Q1 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 1 |
DET -5.5 | 53.5 | 313274046 | U | DET OT Late cover flip |
20–26 |
LAR
PHI
MIN
SEA
ARI
NYJ
SF
BUF
NO
NE
MIA
LV
GB
CHI
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 26% 5
Q2 16% 3
Q3 16% 3
Q4 32% 6
OT 11% 2
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 47% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 61% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 7 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.