When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2024 · Houston Texans · pick one to list those games
37% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 16% of games.
All 19 games
2024 · Houston Texans · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -9.5 | 41.5 | 9192537 | U | HOU Q1 | 14–23 |
2024 · Postseason |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 6162644 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
12–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 7192237 | Q4 | HOU Q1 Late over |
23–14 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 10193333 | U | BAL Q1 | 31–2 |
2024 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 42.5 | 10274046 | Q4 | KC Q1 | 19–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
HOU -2.5 | 46.5 | 3193232 | U | HOU Q1 | 12–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
HOU -3.5 | 44.5 | 092243 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 12 |
HOU -7.5 | 40.5 | 17374759 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 32–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
HOU -7.5 | 41.5 | 14273044 | Q4 | HOU Q3 Late over |
34–10 |
2024 · Week 10 |
DET -4.5 | 49.5 | 10303649 | U | HOU Q1 | 26–23 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NYJ -2.5 | 43.5 | 071734 | U | NYJ Q4 | 13–21 |
2024 · Week 8 |
HOU -4.5 | 45.5 | 13273343 | U | IND Q4 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 7 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 3334046 | U | HOU Q1 | 22–24 |
2024 · Week 6 |
HOU -6.5 | 39.5 | 14214162 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 41–21 |
2024 · Week 5 |
HOU -1.5 | 47.5 | 17203743 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 4 |
HOU -5.5 | 46.5 | 17303744 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
HOU -2 | 46.5 | 14142841 | U | MIN Q1 | 7–34 |
2024 · Week 2 |
HOU -6.5 | 45.5 | 6262632 | U | CHI Q1 Late cover flip |
13–19 |
2024 · Week 1 |
HOU -3.5 | 48.5 | 13192856 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
29–27 |
HOU
KC
LAC
TEN
BAL
MIA
JAX
DAL
DET
NYJ
IND
GB
NE
BUF
MIN
CHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 68% 13
Q2 5% 1
Q3 11% 2
Q4 16% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 63% of 19 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 79% and covered 58% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 15–17 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.