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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Denver @ E Michigan

Gervin GameAbove Center · at E Michigan
#263DENDenver
@
#188EMUE Michigan
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DENThis seasonEMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EMU 79–73 · win probability EMU 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: EMU has more of the edges

DEN 2, EMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
EMUBig
EMU offense vs DEN defense
Offense 206th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, EMU the 157th. A record against a soft schedule means less
EMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, EMU 27.8%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, EMU 70.9%
EMUSmall
Home court
EMU at home. This season: EMU 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
DENSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, EMU 17.5%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, EMU 15.5%
DENSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, EMU 29.3. Allowed: DEN 36.8, EMU 35.5
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; EMU 49.6 and allows 50.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), EMU 68.9 (190th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, EMU 37%. Transfers in: DEN 6, EMU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
DEN offense vs EMU defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 188th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; EMU hits 32.4% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 38.6% and 31.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—EMU -6.0—
Total—151.5—
Projected score—DEN 72.7 · EMU 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadEMU -3.5—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreDEN 33.7 · EMU 37.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

E Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 0, E Michigan 2, even 3
DenverBetterE Michigan
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
Even
G J. Fitzpatrick TR15.4 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 75
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
Even
G E. Richards TR9.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 32
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
Even
G B. Green4.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 9
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
EMUBig
F M. Habhab14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 64
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
EMUSmall
F K. Brockhoff TR10.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 44
DenverBetterE Michigan
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
Even
EMU defense188th of 366 · -4.4
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
EMUBig
EMU offense206th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
DENSmall
Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
EMUBig
Frontcourt+0.1 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
EMUSmall
Bench-0.3 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterEMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
E Michigan
Guards
J. Fitzpatrick36 min · TRE. Richards27 min · TRB. Green20 minG. Lawson18 minS. Harris17 min · TRD. PorterNew
Forwards
M. Habhab36 minK. Brockhoff22 min · TRK. JohnsonNewJ. WrightNewO. SuleimanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DENEMU
Scoring
80.3 #61Points per game70.2 #282
1.16 #53Points per possession1.02 #298
69.4 #151Pace (possessions)68.9 #190
Shooting
53.6 #79Effective FG%49.6 #264
36.8 #323-point %32.4 #259
38.6 #1993-point attempt rate31.8 #332
34.1 #203Free throw rate29.3 #325
Possessions
14.2 #30Turnover rate17.5 #235
29.8 #213Offensive rebound rate27.8 #273
11.2 #327Assists per game12.4 #261
Defense
84.0 #357Points allowed74.4 #169
1.21 #360Points allowed per possession1.07 #142
56.0 #344Opponent effective FG%50.3 #115
36.7 #338Opponent 3-point %32.9 #111
13.0 #355Turnovers forced15.5 #249
67.2 #291Defensive rebound rate70.9 #109
4.5 #356Steals per game5.7 #269
1.9 #348Blocks per game4.1 #61
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

E Michigan

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bowling Green69–77
  • L@ Buffalo67–72
  • Lvs Miami OH64–74
  • L@ Toledo75–94
  • Wvs C Michigan66–54

A week or more of rest.