Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at VMI Keydets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 AM ETCameron Hall · at VMI

#320VMIVMI

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Gardner-Webb and VMI
GWEB	This season	VMI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VMI 79–72 · win probability VMI 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VMI has more of the edges

GWEB 0, VMI 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VMIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GWEB 19.8%, VMI 15.3%. Forced: GWEB 15.3%, VMI 15.7%

Context

Schedule so far

GWEB has played the 154th-hardest schedule, VMI the 253rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: GWEB plays 70.8 a game (84th fastest), VMI 67.6 (251st). Faster games mean more points

VMISmall

VMI offense vs GWEB defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings

VMISmall

Home court

VMI at home. This season: VMI 0-0 at home, GWEB 0-0 away

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GWEB 35%, VMI 59%. Transfers in: GWEB 3, VMI 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

GWEB offense vs VMI defense

Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GWEB 30.3, VMI 30.6. Allowed: GWEB 35.3, VMI 34.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GWEB 23.2%, VMI 25.6%. Defensive: GWEB 63.4%, VMI 62.8%

Even

Three-pointers

GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%; VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 39.8% and 53.6% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0; VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VMI -6.4	—
Total	—	150.7	—
Projected score	—	GWEB 72.2 · VMI 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VMI -3.7	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	GWEB 33.4 · VMI 37.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GWEB WWWWW	17-13	57%	8-8	—
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	2-9	—

Venue/role: GWEB away; VMI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GWEB UOUUU	15-15	50%	2-28
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GWEB	1-9 10%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Gardner-Webb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ BGSU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs NCCU	L77–78LO
Dec 5	vs QUC	L74–107LO

VMI

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs USI	W78–74WU
Nov 28	@ RICH	L54–87LU
Dec 1	vs UNCG	L70–84LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GWEB 0–1 VMIVMI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · GWEB 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 11, 2021-22	GWEB 61 @ VMI 64	VMI -2.5	VMI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gardner-Webb

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L W L L L L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O O U U U O U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	@UNCW	L 62-88	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	@QUC	L 74-107	+14.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 6	vsGASO	L 84-88	+10.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 15	vsWOF	L 57-83	+10.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 21	@TENN	L 52-94	+42.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsCHSO	L 79-89	+12.5	W +2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	@WIN	L 77-88	+23.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	@HPU	L 49-104	+26.5	L −28.5	162.5	U 153
Jan 14	vsRAD	L 80-89	+13.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsPRES	L 55-92	+8.5	L −28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	@LONG	L 56-91	+16.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsUPST	W 67-65	+9.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	@UNCA	L 50-69	+17.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsLONG	L 66-86	+12.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@PRES	L 62-68	+17.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	vsWIN	L 85-103	+20.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 14	vsHPU	L 87-112	+25.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 199
Feb 17	@CHSO	L 66-75	+16.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 19	@RAD	L 70-82	+18.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 26	vsUNCA	L 71-77	+12.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	@UPST	L 61-71	+11.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsUPST	W 65-64	+10.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 6	vsHPU	L 59-81	+27.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

UNCW

L 62-88

−7.5

QUC

L 74-107

−18.5

GASO

L 84-88

+6.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

+0.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+2.5

WIN

L 77-88

+12.5

HPU

L 49-104

−28.5

RAD

L 80-89

+4.5

PRES

L 55-92

−28.5

LONG

L 56-91

−18.5

UPST

W 67-65

+11.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−1.5

LONG

L 66-86

−7.5

PRES

L 62-68

+11.5

WIN

L 85-103

+2.5

HPU

L 87-112

+0.5

CHSO

L 66-75

+7.5

RAD

L 70-82

+6.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+6.5

UPST

L 61-71

+1.5

UPST

W 65-64

+11.5

HPU

L 59-81

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

UNCW

L 62-88

+2.5

QUC

L 74-107

+19.5

GASO

L 84-88

+9.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

−6.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+4.5

WIN

L 77-88

+0.5

HPU

L 49-104

−9.5

RAD

L 80-89

+3.5

PRES

L 55-92

+1.5

LONG

L 56-91

−8.5

UPST

W 67-65

−21.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−30.5

LONG

L 66-86

+4.5

PRES

L 62-68

−15.5

WIN

L 85-103

+31.5

HPU

L 87-112

+37.5

CHSO

L 66-75

−20.5

RAD

L 70-82

−10.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+2.5

UPST

L 61-71

−14.5

UPST

W 65-64

−14.5

HPU

L 59-81

−15.5

over 15under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Gardner-Webb 1, VMI 1, even 3

Gardner-WebbBetterVMI

G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62

GWEBSmall

G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

Even

G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32

VMIBig

F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75

F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14

Even

F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

Gardner-WebbBetterVMI

GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4

Even

VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1

GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2

VMISmall

VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

VMISmall

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGWEB betterVMI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Gardner-Webb

Guards

J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew

Forwards

M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew

Centers

S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew

VMI

Guards

A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew

Forwards

T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GWEB66.2 #343

VMI68.5 #306

Points per possession

GWEB0.94 #360

VMI1.01 #311

Pace (possessions)

GWEB70.8 #84

VMI67.6 #251

Shooting

Effective FG%

GWEB47.8 #317

VMI47.5 #325

3-point %

GWEB31.0 #320

VMI31.5 #306

3-point attempt rate

GWEB39.8 #174

VMI53.6 #2

Free throw rate

GWEB30.3 #302

VMI30.6 #293

Possessions

Turnover rate

GWEB19.8 #347

VMI15.3 #88

Offensive rebound rate

GWEB23.2 #350

VMI25.6 #330

Assists per game

GWEB9.7 #362

VMI11.6 #309

Defense

Points allowed

GWEB86.7 #362

VMI83.2 #348

Points allowed per possession

GWEB1.22 #361

VMI1.23 #362

Opponent effective FG%

GWEB57.0 #356

VMI57.0 #357

Opponent 3-point %

GWEB36.0 #300

VMI36.5 #327

Turnovers forced

GWEB15.3 #265

VMI15.7 #239

Defensive rebound rate

GWEB63.4 #355

VMI62.8 #360

Steals per game

GWEB6.1 #224

VMI6.6 #160

Blocks per game

GWEB2.4 #309

VMI2.0 #343

GWEB		VMI
Scoring
66.2 #343	Points per game	68.5 #306
0.94 #360	Points per possession	1.01 #311
70.8 #84	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #251
Shooting
47.8 #317	Effective FG%	47.5 #325
31.0 #320	3-point %	31.5 #306
39.8 #174	3-point attempt rate	53.6 #2
30.3 #302	Free throw rate	30.6 #293
Possessions
19.8 #347	Turnover rate	15.3 #88
23.2 #350	Offensive rebound rate	25.6 #330
9.7 #362	Assists per game	11.6 #309
Defense
86.7 #362	Points allowed	83.2 #348
1.22 #361	Points allowed per possession	1.23 #362
57.0 #356	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #357
36.0 #300	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #327
15.3 #265	Turnovers forced	15.7 #239
63.4 #355	Defensive rebound rate	62.8 #360
6.1 #224	Steals per game	6.6 #160
2.4 #309	Blocks per game	2.0 #343

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point59–81
Wvs SC Upstate65–64
L@ SC Upstate61–71
Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

Gardner-Webb @ VMI

What could decide it: VMI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Gardner-Webb

VMI

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Gardner-Webb

VMI