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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Maine @ UMass

Mullins Center · at UMass
#323MEMaine
@
#208MASSUMass
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
METhis seasonMASS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MASS 77–65 · win probability MASS 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

ME 1, MASS 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MASSBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ME 19.7%, MASS 33.3%. Defensive: ME 65.7%, MASS 73.9%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ME plays 64.9 a game (348th fastest), MASS 72.7 (21st). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
ME has played the 318th-hardest schedule, MASS the 181st. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ME 38.4, MASS 37.0. Allowed: ME 33.9, MASS 44.6
MASSSmall
ME offense vs MASS defense
Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
MASSSmall
Home court
MASS at home. This season: MASS 0-0 at home, ME 0-0 away
MASSSmall
Three-pointers
ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%; MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 37.0% and 35.4% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ME 19.2%, MASS 17.8%. Forced: ME 19.3%, MASS 16.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ME 31%, MASS 46%. Transfers in: ME 4, MASS 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MASS offense vs ME defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ME 49.6 and allows 50.6; MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMASS -12.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model141.8
Model edge—
Projected score
ME 64.9 · MASS 76.9
Win probability
MASS 85%
1st half
Spread
MASS -7.0
Total
66.3
Projected score
ME 29.7 · MASS 36.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

UMass has the better starters

Position by position: Maine 0, UMass 3, even 2
MaineBetterUMass
G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23
Even
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
MASSSmall
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
MASSSmall
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33
MASSSmall
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11
Even
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
MaineBetterUMass
ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7
MASSSmall
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5
Even
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players
MASSSmall
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestME betterMASS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Maine
Guards
D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew
Forwards
A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEMASS
Scoring
61.2 #364Points per game79.9 #68
0.95 #356Points per possession1.10 #144
64.9 #348Pace (possessions)72.7 #21
Shooting
49.6 #263Effective FG%53.1 #99
31.2 #3143-point %35.2 #100
37.0 #2313-point attempt rate35.4 #265
38.4 #93Free throw rate37.0 #130
Possessions
19.2 #328Turnover rate17.8 #263
19.7 #364Offensive rebound rate33.3 #80
11.8 #300Assists per game16.7 #30
Defense
68.5 #39Points allowed78.8 #288
1.05 #90Points allowed per possession1.09 #189
50.6 #136Opponent effective FG%52.9 #262
29.4 #4Opponent 3-point %33.0 #121
19.3 #38Turnovers forced16.9 #162
65.7 #322Defensive rebound rate73.9 #20
7.7 #57Steals per game6.6 #164
3.2 #194Blocks per game2.2 #334
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ NJIT58–60
  • Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
  • L@ Binghamton67–74
  • W@ UAlbany70–59
  • W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.