Kansas City Roos at Creighton Bluejays: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 8:00 PM ETCHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton

LineCREI -26.5no move

Total153.5no move

Season records: Kansas City and Creighton
KC	This season	CREI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CREI 91–60 · win probability CREI 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

CREI -26.5

no move since the open

Total

153.5

model 151.4 · Under by 2

Model edge

CREI by 4.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

96% KC

94% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

KC 0, CREI 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CREIBig

CREI offense vs KC defense

Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

CREIBig

KC offense vs CREI defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings

CREIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: KC 45.8 and allows 56.3; CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1

Context

Schedule so far

KC has played the 235th-hardest schedule, CREI the 40th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CREIBig

Three-pointers

KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%; CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 36.8% and 48.2% of their shots

CREIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KC 26.4%, CREI 26.9%. Defensive: KC 64.1%, CREI 70.5%

CREISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KC 0%, CREI 53%. Transfers in: KC 5, CREI 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: KC plays 71.8 a game (45th fastest), CREI 68.9 (187th). Faster games mean more points

CREISmall

Home court

CREI at home. This season: CREI 0-0 at home, KC 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: KC 29.2, CREI 28.3. Allowed: KC 31.4, CREI 24.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KC 18.2%, CREI 16.4%. Forced: KC 16.4%, CREI 13.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5	2755	75%	51%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	CREI -26.5	CREI -30.9	CREI +4.4
Total	153.5	151.4	Under 2.1
Projected score	—	KC 60.2 · CREI 91.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CREI -18.3	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	KC 26.2 · CREI 44.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	4-12	5-22
CREI LWLWL	11-23	32%	4-12	6-12

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; CREI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27
CREI UUUUO	16-18	47%	16-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%
CREI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs SIU	L78–101LO
Nov 9	@ JAX	No recent meeting
Nov 11	vs FAMU	No recent meeting

Creighton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs LEM	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ KSU	L76–83LU
Nov 15	vs IOWA	W92–84LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KC 0–1 CREICREI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · KC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	KC 56 @ CREI 79	CREI -20.5	CREI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Creighton

34 games played

Straight up

16-18

47% wins

Against the spread

11-23

32% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1847%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2332%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 7	@VILL	W 76-72	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsSJU	L 73-90	+2.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsGTWN	W 86-83	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Jan 16	@PROV	L 88-93	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 21	vsXAV	W 94-93	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 27	@MARQ	L 62-86	-1.5	L −25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsCONN	L 58-85	+6.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 4	@GTWN	L 68-76	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 144
Feb 7	vsHALL	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	@DEP	L 71-72	-1.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 14	vsVILL	L 69-80	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 18	@CONN	W 91-84	+15.5	W +22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@SJU	L 52-81	+12.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsDEP	L 71-72	-3.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	vsPROV	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	@BTLR	W 76-59	+2.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsHALL	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 133
Apr 2	vsRUTG	W 82-69	-4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 151
Apr 4	vsWVU	L 70-87	+1.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

VILL

W 76-72

+8.5

SJU

L 73-90

−14.5

GTWN

W 86-83

−5.5

PROV

L 88-93

−7.5

XAV

W 94-93

−7.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−25.5

CONN

L 58-85

−20.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−6.5

HALL

W 69-68

−0.5

DEP

L 71-72

−2.5

VILL

L 69-80

−9.5

CONN

W 91-84

+22.5

SJU

L 52-81

−16.5

DEP

L 71-72

−4.5

PROV

L 76-79

−6.5

BTLR

W 76-59

+19.5

HALL

L 61-72

−8.5

RUTG

W 82-69

+8.5

WVU

L 70-87

−15.5

covered 11didn’t cover 23avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

VILL

W 76-72

+5.5

SJU

L 73-90

+10.5

GTWN

W 86-83

+21.5

PROV

L 88-93

+19.5

XAV

W 94-93

+31.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−6.5

CONN

L 58-85

+0.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−2.5

HALL

W 69-68

−3.5

DEP

L 71-72

+1.5

VILL

L 69-80

+3.5

CONN

W 91-84

+31.5

SJU

L 52-81

−23.5

DEP

L 71-72

+0.5

PROV

L 76-79

−11.5

BTLR

W 76-59

−20.5

HALL

L 61-72

−3.5

RUTG

W 82-69

−0.5

WVU

L 70-87

+19.5

over 16under 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton has the better starters

Position by position: Kansas City 0, Creighton 4, even 1

Kansas CityBetterCreighton

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

CREIBig

G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

CREISmall

G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

CREIBig

F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

CREIBig

C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

Kansas CityBetterCreighton

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

CREIBig

CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

CREIBig

CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

CREIBig

Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

CREIBig

Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+5.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestKC betterCREI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

Creighton

Guards

B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR

Forwards

J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew

Centers

F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KC67.0 #334

CREI75.2 #159

Points per possession

KC0.93 #361

CREI1.09 #156

Pace (possessions)

KC71.8 #45

CREI68.9 #187

Shooting

Effective FG%

KC45.8 #352

CREI53.0 #103

3-point %

KC28.4 #360

CREI34.1 #167

3-point attempt rate

KC36.8 #235

CREI48.2 #23

Free throw rate

KC29.2 #330

CREI28.3 #340

Possessions

Turnover rate

KC18.2 #282

CREI16.4 #161

Offensive rebound rate

KC26.4 #314

CREI26.9 #301

Assists per game

KC11.3 #324

CREI15.4 #72

Defense

Points allowed

KC84.8 #359

CREI75.2 #196

Points allowed per possession

KC1.18 #348

CREI1.09 #197

Opponent effective FG%

KC56.3 #348

CREI51.1 #165

Opponent 3-point %

KC37.5 #350

CREI35.1 #256

Turnovers forced

KC16.4 #193

CREI13.7 #341

Defensive rebound rate

KC64.1 #353

CREI70.5 #132

Steals per game

KC6.4 #192

CREI5.7 #278

Blocks per game

KC3.1 #195

CREI2.8 #255

KC		CREI
Scoring
67.0 #334	Points per game	75.2 #159
0.93 #361	Points per possession	1.09 #156
71.8 #45	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #187
Shooting
45.8 #352	Effective FG%	53.0 #103
28.4 #360	3-point %	34.1 #167
36.8 #235	3-point attempt rate	48.2 #23
29.2 #330	Free throw rate	28.3 #340
Possessions
18.2 #282	Turnover rate	16.4 #161
26.4 #314	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #301
11.3 #324	Assists per game	15.4 #72
Defense
84.8 #359	Points allowed	75.2 #196
1.18 #348	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #197
56.3 #348	Opponent effective FG%	51.1 #165
37.5 #350	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #256
16.4 #193	Turnovers forced	13.7 #341
64.1 #353	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #132
6.4 #192	Steals per game	5.7 #278
3.1 #195	Blocks per game	2.8 #255

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia70–87
Wvs Rutgers82–69
Lvs Seton Hall61–72
W@ Butler76–59
Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City Roos at Creighton Bluejays

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market

Public betting

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas City

Creighton

Creighton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kansas City

Creighton