Presbyterian Blue Hose at Butler Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETHinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Presbyterian and Butler
PRES	This season	BTLR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BTLR 83–67 · win probability BTLR 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges

PRES 1, BTLR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

PRES has played the 272nd-hardest schedule, BTLR the 56th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BTLRBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PRES 39.4, BTLR 42.1. Allowed: PRES 37.1, BTLR 24.9

PRESBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PRES 86%, BTLR 22%. Transfers in: PRES 0, BTLR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

BTLRBig

PRES offense vs BTLR defense

Offense 222nd of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: PRES plays 66.9 a game (283rd fastest), BTLR 71.1 (69th). Faster games mean more points

BTLRSmall

BTLR offense vs PRES defense

Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 160th, on the model’s ratings

BTLRSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PRES 19.4%, BTLR 15.9%. Forced: PRES 15.7%, BTLR 15.1%

BTLRSmall

Three-pointers

PRES hits 31.6% and allows 34.7%; BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 28.0% and 35.0% of their shots

BTLRSmall

Home court

BTLR at home. This season: BTLR 0-0 at home, PRES 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PRES 33.1%, BTLR 34.5%. Defensive: PRES 69.3%, BTLR 70.0%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PRES 51.0 and allows 51.2; BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BTLR -15.6	—
Total	—	149.8	—
Projected score	—	PRES 67.1 · BTLR 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BTLR -9.2	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	PRES 30.4 · BTLR 39.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRES LWWWW	17-13	57%	7-9	—
BTLR WWLWL	16-16	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: PRES away; BTLR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES OOUOU	16-14	53%	12-18
BTLR UOUOO	18-14	56%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRES	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BTLR	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Presbyterian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ MORE	W80–72WO
Dec 8	@ ETSU	W68–64WU
Dec 12	vs SAM	No recent meeting

Butler

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ UNC	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ PROV	L81–91LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

L W W L L L L W L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W L W W L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L L W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	@UCLA	L 46-86	+25.5	L −14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 30	vsCIT	W 69-41	-8.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 3	@WOF	L 56-63	+4.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 119
Dec 6	vsMORE	W 80-72	-7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 17	@ECU	L 53-74	+4.5	L −16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 21	@MAN	L 81-87	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsUPST	W 86-77	-1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 7	@RAD	L 61-80	+6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	@LONG	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 14	vsUNCA	W 71-70	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 141
Jan 17	@GWEB	W 92-55	-8.5	W +28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	vsCHSO	W 87-83	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsWIN	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 29	@HPU	L 81-84	+14.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Jan 31	vsRAD	L 84-93	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsGWEB	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	@CHSO	L 67-84	+1.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 151
Feb 14	@UNCA	W 58-57	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 19	vsLONG	W 72-65	-2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@UPST	L 74-76	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	vsHPU	L 73-79	+12.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 152
Feb 28	@WIN	L 70-74	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 6	vsRAD	W 91-85	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 176
Mar 7	vsWIN	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-41

+19.5

WOF

L 56-63

−2.5

W 80-72

+0.5

ECU

L 53-74

−16.5

MAN

L 81-87

−8.5

UPST

W 86-77

+7.5

RAD

L 61-80

−12.5

LONG

L 70-77

−3.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+3.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+28.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+5.5

WIN

L 72-82

−4.5

HPU

L 81-84

+11.5

RAD

L 84-93

−10.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−11.5

CHSO

L 67-84

−15.5

UNCA

W 58-57

+6.5

LONG

W 72-65

+4.5

UPST

L 74-76

−3.5

HPU

L 73-79

+6.5

WIN

L 70-74

+3.5

RAD

W 91-85

+8.5

WIN

L 71-73

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

+0.5

CIT

W 69-41

−23.5

WOF

L 56-63

−19.5

W 80-72

+17.5

ECU

L 53-74

−4.5

MAN

L 81-87

+29.5

UPST

W 86-77

+25.5

RAD

L 61-80

−6.5

LONG

L 70-77

+7.5

UNCA

W 71-70

+2.5

GWEB

W 92-55

+1.5

CHSO

W 87-83

+22.5

WIN

L 72-82

+7.5

HPU

L 81-84

+15.5

RAD

L 84-93

+25.5

GWEB

W 68-62

−15.5

CHSO

L 67-84

+4.5

UNCA

W 58-57

−22.5

LONG

W 72-65

−2.5

UPST

L 74-76

+8.5

HPU

L 73-79

+0.5

WIN

L 70-74

−6.5

RAD

W 91-85

+29.5

WIN

L 71-73

−1.5

over 16under 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Butler

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W W W L W W W W L W L W W L L L L W W W L L L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W W L L L L L W W L L L W L W L L L L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O U O O O U O U O U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUSI	W 88-58	-22.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 8	vsIUIN	W 112-80	-20.5	W +11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 11	vsCHST	W 98-66	-26.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	@SMU	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 21	vsSC	W 79-72	-3.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsUVA	W 80-73	+6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 153
Nov 28	vsWRST	W 94-69	-14.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 163
Dec 2	vsEMU	W 84-68	-17.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 6	vsBOIS	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsPROV	W 113-110	-3.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 223
Dec 16	@CONN	L 60-79	+15.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsNU	W 61-58	-3.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 22	vsNJIT	W 101-52	-32.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 153
Dec 30	@CREI	L 85-89	+5.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 3	vsVILL	L 67-85	-2.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 152
Jan 6	vsSJU	L 70-84	+4.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 154
Jan 14	@XAV	L 75-89	-1.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 164
Jan 17	@HALL	W 77-66	+6.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 143
Jan 20	vsDEP	W 87-80	-7.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 167
Jan 23	vsMARQ	W 87-76	-5.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 163
Jan 28	@SJU	L 70-92	+12.5	L −9.5	158.5	O 162
Jan 31	vsGTWN	L 64-77	-5.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 4	@PROV	L 87-97	+2.5	L −7.5	168.5	O 184
Feb 7	@MARQ	L 55-70	+3.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 11	vsCONN	L 70-80	+11.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 15	vsHALL	L 56-63	+5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 119
Feb 18	@GTWN	W 93-89	+6.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 182
Feb 21	vsXAV	W 80-75	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 155
Feb 25	@VILL	L 73-82	+10.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 155
Mar 4	vsCREI	L 59-76	-2.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 7	@DEP	W 81-71	+4.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 152
Mar 11	vsPROV	L 81-91	+1.5	L −8.5	162.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 88-58

+7.5

IUIN

W 112-80

+11.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+5.5

W 79-72

+3.5

UVA

W 80-73

+13.5

WRST

W 94-69

+10.5

EMU

W 84-68

−1.5

BOIS

L 68-77

−11.5

PROV

W 113-110

−0.5

CONN

L 60-79

−3.5

W 61-58

−0.5

NJIT

W 101-52

+16.5

CREI

L 85-89

+1.5

VILL

L 67-85

−20.5

SJU

L 70-84

−9.5

XAV

L 75-89

−15.5

HALL

W 77-66

+17.5

DEP

W 87-80

−0.5

MARQ

W 87-76

+5.5

SJU

L 70-92

−9.5

GTWN

L 64-77

−18.5

PROV

L 87-97

−7.5

MARQ

L 55-70

−11.5

CONN

L 70-80

+1.5

HALL

L 56-63

−1.5

GTWN

W 93-89

+10.5

XAV

W 80-75

+0.5

VILL

L 73-82

+1.5

CREI

L 59-76

−19.5

DEP

W 81-71

+14.5

PROV

L 81-91

−8.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 88-58

−10.5

IUIN

W 112-80

−0.5

CHST

W 98-66

+5.5

SMU

L 85-87

+8.5

W 79-72

+0.5

UVA

W 80-73

−2.5

WRST

W 94-69

+12.5

EMU

W 84-68

−1.5

BOIS

L 68-77

−3.5

PROV

W 113-110

+58.5

CONN

L 60-79

−5.5

W 61-58

−35.5

NJIT

W 101-52

+3.5

CREI

L 85-89

+17.5

VILL

L 67-85

+2.5

SJU

L 70-84

−8.5

XAV

L 75-89

+2.5

HALL

W 77-66

−1.5

DEP

W 87-80

+19.5

MARQ

W 87-76

+1.5

SJU

L 70-92

+3.5

GTWN

L 64-77

−8.5

PROV

L 87-97

+15.5

MARQ

L 55-70

−30.5

CONN

L 70-80

+6.5

HALL

L 56-63

−19.5

GTWN

W 93-89

+34.5

XAV

W 80-75

−4.5

VILL

L 73-82

+7.5

CREI

L 59-76

−20.5

DEP

W 81-71

+9.5

PROV

L 81-91

+9.5

over 18under 14avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Butler has the better starters

Position by position: Presbyterian 0, Butler 1, even 4

PresbyterianBetterButler

G C. Parrish14.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 56

Even

G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66

G T. Wilson11.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 52

No call

G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked

G E. Taylor5.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Not ranked

No call

F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46

G I. King3.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2

BTLRBig

F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

F J. Peterson11 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

Even

C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

PresbyterianBetterButler

PRES offense222nd of 366 · -6.8

BTLRSmall

BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1

PRES defense160th of 366 · -3.5

BTLRSmall

BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1

Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players

BTLRBig

Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

BTLRSmall

Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.6 · 5 players

BTLRSmall

Bench+0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPRES betterBTLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Presbyterian

Guards

C. Parrish35 minT. Wilson32 minE. Taylor21 minI. King19 minK. Hudson11 minJ. Bowden8 min

Forwards

J. Peterson30 minC. Chiakwelu11 minA. AyelyineNewL. HackworthNew

Butler

Guards

J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew

Forwards

C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew

Centers

D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PRES70.0 #286

BTLR79.4 #75

Points per possession

PRES1.05 #249

BTLR1.12 #106

Pace (possessions)

PRES66.9 #283

BTLR71.1 #69

Shooting

Effective FG%

PRES51.0 #196

BTLR50.9 #199

3-point %

PRES31.6 #302

BTLR32.7 #242

3-point attempt rate

PRES28.0 #360

BTLR35.0 #276

Free throw rate

PRES39.4 #71

BTLR42.1 #29

Possessions

Turnover rate

PRES19.4 #335

BTLR15.9 #131

Offensive rebound rate

PRES33.1 #86

BTLR34.5 #58

Assists per game

PRES12.4 #260

BTLR15.5 #64

Defense

Points allowed

PRES73.1 #133

BTLR77.5 #252

Points allowed per possession

PRES1.09 #192

BTLR1.09 #195

Opponent effective FG%

PRES51.2 #170

BTLR51.9 #208

Opponent 3-point %

PRES34.7 #235

BTLR33.3 #142

Turnovers forced

PRES15.7 #237

BTLR15.1 #272

Defensive rebound rate

PRES69.3 #188

BTLR70.0 #163

Steals per game

PRES5.5 #303

BTLR6.5 #178

Blocks per game

PRES4.5 #35

BTLR3.2 #191

PRES		BTLR
Scoring
70.0 #286	Points per game	79.4 #75
1.05 #249	Points per possession	1.12 #106
66.9 #283	Pace (possessions)	71.1 #69
Shooting
51.0 #196	Effective FG%	50.9 #199
31.6 #302	3-point %	32.7 #242
28.0 #360	3-point attempt rate	35.0 #276
39.4 #71	Free throw rate	42.1 #29
Possessions
19.4 #335	Turnover rate	15.9 #131
33.1 #86	Offensive rebound rate	34.5 #58
12.4 #260	Assists per game	15.5 #64
Defense
73.1 #133	Points allowed	77.5 #252
1.09 #192	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #195
51.2 #170	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #208
34.7 #235	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #142
15.7 #237	Turnovers forced	15.1 #272
69.3 #188	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #163
5.5 #303	Steals per game	6.5 #178
4.5 #35	Blocks per game	3.2 #191

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Presbyterian

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-10 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Winthrop71–73
Wvs Radford91–85
L@ Winthrop70–74
Lvs High Point73–79
L@ SC Upstate74–76

A week or more of rest.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Providence81–91
W@ DePaul81–71
Lvs Creighton59–76
L@ Villanova73–82
Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.

Presbyterian @ Butler

What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

Butler

Butler has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Presbyterian

Butler