Kirby Sports Center · at Lafayette · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
LAF -4.5✓ HC covered by 9.5
LAF -4.5✓ HC covered by 9.5Closing total141.5Over by 17.5
 HC | This season | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| 8-21 | Record | 10-20 |
| 14-15 | ATS | 13-16 |
| 14-15 | O/U | 16-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HC 68–72 LAF · ✗ LAF (65%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC | 34 | 48 | 82 |
| LAF | 39 | 38 | 77 |
1st half: HC 34, LAF 39 (LAF by 5). The model had LAF by 2.5 and a total of 65.4 (actual 73).
Team stats
| HC | LAF | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-60 47% | Field goals | 26-53 49% |
| 8-24 33% | 3-pointers | 10-21 48% |
| 18-18 100% | Free throws | 15-18 83% |
| 33 8 off | Rebounds | 26 2 off |
| 22 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| HC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Warren G | 40 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 7-16 | 2-4 |
| Tyler Boston G | 35 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| DeAndre Williams G | 34 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 5-13 | 3-7 |
| Aiden Disu F | 30 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 7-11 | 0-2 |
| Aidan Richard F | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Declan Ryan F | 20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| John St. Germain III G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chuck Hare F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jude Haigh, Joe Nugent, Austin Mejia, Ethan Clark, Tim Finau, Jaden Kirkwood, Will Aljancic, Ben Capron
| LAF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Butler G | 38 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Williams G | 32 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 5-9 | 3-5 |
| Andrew Phillips G | 32 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Shareef Jackson F | 24 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| Christian Humphrey-Rembert F | 21 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ryan Pettit G | 28 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Misha Bednostin C | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| KaiMani Murdock F | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
Did not play: TJ Berger, Beckett Currie, Ashton Wallace, Luke Azzinaro, Justin Vander Baan, Luke Bevilacqua, Folabomi Fayemi, Malik Rasul, Chris Rubayo, Luka Savicevic, Joshua Wyche
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLAF -4.5
ModelLAF -4.3
Model edgeHC +0.2
W HC covered
Total
Market141.5
Model139.7
Model edgeUnder 1.8
L Over
Projected score
HC 67.7 · LAF 72
HC 82 · LAF 77
Win probability
LAF 65%
1st half
Spread
LAF -2.5
LAF -5.0
Total
65.4
73 points
Projected score
HC 31.5 · LAF 33.9
HC 34 · LAF 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAF -3.5
1 → LAF
CloseLAF -4.5
1 pt toward LAF
Total
Open142.5
▼ 1
Close141.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
HC +164 · LAF -198
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAF -3.5 · closed LAF -4.5 · moved 1 toward LAFmodel LAF -4.5 matches the line
model LAF -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 142.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 downmodel 139.5
model 139.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| LAF | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
HC 2–9 LAFLAF leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · LAF has won the last 3 meetings · HC 3-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2025-26 | LAF 86 @ HC 83 | HC -1.5 | LAF W |
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | HC 55 @ LAF 74 | LAF -2.5 | LAF W |
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | HC 68 @ LAF 69 | LAF -7.5 | HC W |
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | LAF 69 @ HC 74 | HC +2.5 | HC W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | HC 65 @ LAF 82 | LAF -5.5 | LAF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Holy Cross
29 games played
Straight up
8-21
28% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-15
48% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PROV | L 79-89 | +23.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | @ BYU | L 53-98 | +38.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 10 | @ UTAH | L 69-87 | +21.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 16 | vs HAMP | W 67-61 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 18 | @ BRWN | L 49-68 | +2.5 | L −16.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 21 | @ SHU | L 66-79 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 24 | vs SIE | L 69-73 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 3 | vs NE | W 76-59 | +8.5 | W +25.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | @ FOR | W 70-69 | +10.5 | W +11.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Dec 16 | vs DART | L 64-89 | +1.5 | L −23.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 20 | @ HARV | L 53-81 | +10.5 | L −17.5 | 136.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 31 | vs BUCK | W 65-58 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 3 | vs NAVY | L 58-65 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 7 | @ LEH | L 58-66 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 10 | @ AMER | W 84-73 | +8.5 | W +19.5 | 137.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | vs ARMY | W 82-75 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 17 | @LAF | L 55-74 | +2.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @NAVY | L 68-85 | +11.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 24 | vsAMER | L 67-76 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 28 | @ COLG | L 74-79 | +10.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 31 | @ARMY | L 68-69 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 2 | vs BU | L 64-72 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | vsLEH | W 76-67 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 137.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 11 | vsCOLG | L 70-74 | +8.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 15 | @ L-MD | L 73-83 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 18 | vsLAF | L 83-86 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 22 | @BUCK | W 72-63 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 25 | @BU | L 63-78 | +8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 28 | vsL-MD | L 62-76 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PROV
PROVL 79-89
+13.5
8
@BYU
BYUL 53-98
−6.5
10
@UTAH
UTAHL 69-87
+3.5
16
vsHAMP
HAMPW 67-61
+10.5
18
@BRWN
BRWNL 49-68
−16.5
21
@SHU
SHUL 66-79
−5.5
24
vsSIE
SIEL 69-73
+5.5
3
vsNE
NEW 76-59
+25.5
6
@FOR
FORW 70-69
+11.5
16
vsDART
DARTL 64-89
−23.5
20
@HARV
HARVL 53-81
−17.5
31
vsBUCK
BUCKW 65-58
+8.5
3
vsNAVY
NAVYL 58-65
−1.5
7
@LEH
LEHL 58-66
−5.5
10
@AMER
AMERW 84-73
+19.5
14
vsARMY
ARMYW 82-75
+2.5
17
@LAF
LAFL 55-74
−16.5
21
@NAVY
NAVYL 68-85
−5.5
24
vsAMER
AMERL 67-76
−4.5
28
@COLG
COLGL 74-79
+5.5
31
@ARMY
ARMYL 68-69
+1.5
2
vsBU
BUL 64-72
−5.5
7
vsLEH
LEHW 76-67
+10.5
11
vsCOLG
COLGL 70-74
+4.5
15
@L-MD
L-MDL 73-83
−5.5
18
vsLAF
LAFL 83-86
−4.5
22
@BUCK
BUCKW 72-63
+11.5
25
@BU
BUL 63-78
−6.5
28
vsL-MD
L-MDL 62-76
−15.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PROV
PROVL 79-89
+15.5
8
@BYU
BYUL 53-98
−14.5
10
@UTAH
UTAHL 69-87
+0.5
16
vsHAMP
HAMPW 67-61
−20.5
18
@BRWN
BRWNL 49-68
−24.5
21
@SHU
SHUL 66-79
−7.5
24
vsSIE
SIEL 69-73
+4.5
3
vsNE
NEW 76-59
−10.5
6
@FOR
FORW 70-69
+0.5
16
vsDART
DARTL 64-89
+5.5
20
@HARV
HARVL 53-81
−2.5
31
vsBUCK
BUCKW 65-58
−10.5
3
vsNAVY
NAVYL 58-65
−14.5
7
@LEH
LEHL 58-66
−13.5
10
@AMER
AMERW 84-73
+19.5
14
vsARMY
ARMYW 82-75
+14.5
17
@LAF
LAFL 55-74
−9.5
21
@NAVY
NAVYL 68-85
+18.5
24
vsAMER
AMERL 67-76
+3.5
28
@COLG
COLGL 74-79
+8.5
31
@ARMY
ARMYL 68-69
−7.5
2
vsBU
BUL 64-72
−3.5
7
vsLEH
LEHW 76-67
+5.5
11
vsCOLG
COLGL 70-74
+1.5
15
@L-MD
L-MDL 73-83
+9.5
18
vsLAF
LAFL 83-86
+29.5
22
@BUCK
BUCKW 72-63
−7.5
25
@BU
BUL 63-78
−0.5
28
vsL-MD
L-MDL 62-76
−13.5
over 14under 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Lafayette
30 games played
Straight up
10-20
33% wins
Against the spread
13-16
45% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-13
55% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ JOES | L 76-85 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 8 | @ TEX | L 60-97 | +25.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 13 | vs COR | L 78-97 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 17 | @ WVU | L 59-81 | +24.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 21 | @ STO | L 70-74 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEM | L 63-76 | -4.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 29 | vs BALL | W 55-37 | +1.5 | W +19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs MONM | L 74-88 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 5 | vs MERC | W 79-71 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 8 | @ PENN | L 72-74 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 18 | @ CLT | L 67-81 | +11.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 20 | @ GT | L 81-95 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 31 | vsCOLG | L 77-85 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | @L-MD | W 79-64 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 7 | vsBU | L 67-83 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 142.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @NAVY | L 50-76 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 14 | @BUCK | L 69-76 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 137.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 17 | vsHC | W 74-55 | -2.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @BU | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 24 | @LEH | L 59-64 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 28 | vsBUCK | W 81-79 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 31 | @AMER | W 67-65 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 4 | vsNAVY | L 50-65 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 139.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 7 | @ARMY | W 63-60 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Feb 11 | vsL-MD | L 54-68 | -3.5 | L −17.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 14 | vsLEH | L 69-78 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 18 | @HC | W 86-83 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 22 | vsAMER | L 61-75 | +3.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | @COLG | W 70-69 | +8.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 28 | vsARMY | W 83-77 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@JOES
JOESL 76-85
+4.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 60-97
−11.5
13
vsCOR
CORL 78-97
−14.5
17
@WVU
WVUL 59-81
+2.5
21
@STO
STOL 70-74
−5.5
28
vsLEM
LEML 63-76
−17.5
29
vsBALL
BALLW 55-37
+19.5
30
vsMONM
MONML 74-88
−12.5
8
@PENN
PENNL 72-74
+5.5
18
@CLT
CLTL 67-81
−2.5
20
@GT
GTL 81-95
+2.5
31
vsCOLG
COLGL 77-85
−1.5
3
@L-MD
L-MDW 79-64
+13.5
7
vsBU
BUL 67-83
−14.5
10
@NAVY
NAVYL 50-76
−17.5
14
@BUCK
BUCKL 69-76
−4.5
17
vsHC
HCW 74-55
+16.5
21
@BU
BUL 73-77
+0.5
24
@LEH
LEHL 59-64
−2.5
28
vsBUCK
BUCKW 81-79
−2.5
31
@AMER
AMERW 67-65
+7.5
4
vsNAVY
NAVYL 50-65
−11.5
7
@ARMY
ARMYW 63-60
+1.5
11
vsL-MD
L-MDL 54-68
−17.5
14
vsLEH
LEHL 69-78
−11.5
18
@HC
HCW 86-83
+4.5
22
vsAMER
AMERL 61-75
−10.5
25
@COLG
COLGW 70-69
+9.5
28
vsARMY
ARMYW 83-77
+2.5
covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@JOES
JOESL 76-85
+22.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 60-97
+3.5
13
vsCOR
CORL 78-97
+14.5
17
@WVU
WVUL 59-81
+4.5
21
@STO
STOL 70-74
+2.5
28
vsLEM
LEML 63-76
−12.5
29
vsBALL
BALLW 55-37
−48.5
30
vsMONM
MONML 74-88
+20.5
8
@PENN
PENNL 72-74
−4.5
18
@CLT
CLTL 67-81
+10.5
20
@GT
GTL 81-95
+28.5
31
vsCOLG
COLGL 77-85
+15.5
3
@L-MD
L-MDW 79-64
−9.5
7
vsBU
BUL 67-83
+7.5
10
@NAVY
NAVYL 50-76
−15.5
14
@BUCK
BUCKL 69-76
+7.5
17
vsHC
HCW 74-55
−9.5
21
@BU
BUL 73-77
+4.5
24
@LEH
LEHL 59-64
−20.5
28
vsBUCK
BUCKW 81-79
+21.5
31
@AMER
AMERW 67-65
−10.5
4
vsNAVY
NAVYL 50-65
−24.5
7
@ARMY
ARMYW 63-60
−19.5
11
vsL-MD
L-MDL 54-68
−25.5
14
vsLEH
LEHL 69-78
+6.5
18
@HC
HCW 86-83
+29.5
22
vsAMER
AMERL 61-75
−5.5
25
@COLG
COLGW 70-69
−9.5
28
vsARMY
ARMYW 83-77
+15.5
over 16under 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Holy Cross
8-21 overall · 5-13 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Loyola MD62–76
- L@ Boston U63–78
- W@ Bucknell72–63
- Lvs Lafayette83–86
- L@ Loyola MD73–83
3 days since their last game.
Lafayette
10-20 overall · 8-10 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Army83–77
- W@ Colgate70–69
- Lvs American61–75
- W@ Holy Cross86–83
- Lvs Lehigh69–78
3 days since their last game.