T-Mobile Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
BAY -5.5✓ ASU covered by 9.5
BAY -5.5✓ ASU covered by 9.5Closing total152.5Over by 9.5
| BAY | This season | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| 15-15 | Record | 16-15 |
| 13-17 | ATS | 19-12 |
| 17-13 | O/U | 15-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BAY 82–78 ASU · ✗ BAY (65%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 35 | 44 | 79 |
| ASU | 44 | 39 | 83 |
1st half: BAY 35, ASU 44 (ASU by 9). The model had BAY by 2.7 and a total of 74.6 (actual 79).
Team stats
| BAY | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-67 42% | Field goals | 31-54 57% |
| 8-33 24% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 13-17 76% | Free throws | 13-22 59% |
| 36 16 off | Rebounds | 33 9 off |
| 12 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 35 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6-16 | 0-7 |
| Obi Agbim G | 35 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-9 | 1-7 |
| Isaac Williams IV G | 32 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6-12 | 2-3 |
| Caden Powell C | 31 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Carr G | 31 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 6-17 | 5-14 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 26 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Michael Rataj G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| James Nnaji C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ White, Maikcol Perez, Mayo Soyoye, Drew Perry, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Will Kuykendall, James Goodis
| ASU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massamba Diop C | 33 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Noah Meeusen G | 30 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Santiago Trouet F | 29 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Maurice Odum G | 29 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-4 |
| Andrija Grbovic F | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 6-7 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Johnson G | 28 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-5 |
| Bryce Ford G | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Allen Mukeba F | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Trevor Best G | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jovan Icitovic, Dame Salane, Vijay Wallace, Quentin McCoy, Adante' Holiman, Kash Polk, Marcus Adams Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBAY -5.5
ModelBAY -4.3
Model edgeASU +1.2
W ASU covered
Total
Market152.5
Model159.6
Model edgeOver 7.1
W Over
Projected score
BAY 81.9 · ASU 77.6
BAY 79 · ASU 83
Win probability
BAY 65%
1st half
Spread
BAY -2.7
ASU -9.0
Total
74.6
79 points
Projected score
BAY 38.6 · ASU 36
BAY 35 · ASU 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBAY -2.5
3 → BAY
CloseBAY -5.5
3 pts toward BAY
Total
Open158.5
▼ 6
Close152.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
BAY -250 · ASU +205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAY -2.5 · closed BAY -5.5 · moved 3 toward BAYmodel BAY -4.5
model BAY -4.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 6 downmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ASU | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
BAY 3–0 ASUBAY leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · BAY has won the last 3 meetings · BAY 0-2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2025-26 | ASU 68 @ BAY 73 | BAY -8.5 | ASU W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | BAY 72 @ ASU 66 | ASU +6.5 | ASU W |
| Nov 24, 2021-22 | ASU 63 vs BAY 75 | BAY -12 | P |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Baylor
30 games played
Straight up
15-15
50% wins
Against the spread
13-17
43% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-13
57% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs ISU | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs HOU | L 55-77 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ OKST | W 94-79 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 16 | @ KU | L 62-80 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 20 | vs TTU | L 73-92 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsTCU | L 90-97 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 28 | @ CIN | L 57-67 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @ WVU | W 63-53 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 139.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 4 | vs COLO | W 86-67 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 7 | @ISU | L 69-72 | +14.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | vs BYU | L 94-99 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 14 | vs LOU | L 71-82 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @ KSU | L 74-90 | -3.5 | L −19.5 | 159.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | vsASU | W 73-68 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 24 | vs ARIZ | L 80-87 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 28 | @ UCF | W 87-86 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Mar 4 | @HOU | L 64-77 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 7 | vs UTAH | W 101-75 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 148.5 | O 176 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−6.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−19.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+13.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−10.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
−17.5
24
vsTCU
TCUL 90-97
−11.5
28
@CIN
CINL 57-67
−6.5
31
@WVU
WVUW 63-53
+12.5
4
vsCOLO
COLOW 86-67
+11.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 69-72
+11.5
10
vsBYU
BYUL 94-99
−1.5
14
vsLOU
LOUL 71-82
−3.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 74-90
−19.5
21
vsASU
ASUW 73-68
−3.5
24
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-87
+0.5
28
@UCF
UCFW 87-86
+2.5
4
@HOU
HOUL 64-77
−0.5
7
vsUTAH
UTAHW 101-75
+12.5
covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−25.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−10.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+7.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−14.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
+10.5
24
vsTCU
TCUL 90-97
+39.5
28
@CIN
CINL 57-67
−21.5
31
@WVU
WVUW 63-53
−23.5
4
vsCOLO
COLOW 86-67
−2.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 69-72
−10.5
10
vsBYU
BYUL 94-99
+34.5
14
vsLOU
LOUL 71-82
−9.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 74-90
+4.5
21
vsASU
ASUW 73-68
−16.5
24
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-87
+11.5
28
@UCF
UCFW 87-86
+13.5
4
@HOU
HOUL 64-77
−2.5
7
vsUTAH
UTAHW 101-75
+27.5
over 17under 13avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arizona St
31 games played
Straight up
16-15
52% wins
Against the spread
19-12
61% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-16
48% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs SUU | W 81-64 | -17.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 9 | vs UTU | W 81-66 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs GONZ | L 65-77 | +13.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 17 | vs GAST | W 75-62 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 20 | @ HAW | W 83-76 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 24 | vs TEX | W 87-86 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 25 | vs WSU | W 100-94 | -4.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 26 | vs USC | L 75-88 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | vs OU | W 86-70 | +5.5 | W +21.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 9 | vs NAU | W 73-48 | -16.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs SCU | W 82-79 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 17 | @ UCLA | L 77-90 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 21 | vs ORST | L 75-78 | -12.5 | L −15.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 3 | vsCOLO | L 89-95 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 7 | @BYU | L 76-104 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 10 | vsKSU | W 87-84 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 169.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ARIZ | L 82-89 | +21.5 | W +14.5 | 167.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 18 | @HOU | L 73-103 | +18.5 | L −11.5 | 142.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 21 | vsWVU | L 63-75 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 24 | vsCIN | W 82-68 | +3.5 | W +17.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 27 | @UCF | L 76-79 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 31 | vsARIZ | L 74-87 | +14.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 161 |
| Feb 4 | @UTAH | W 71-63 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 7 | @COLO | L 70-78 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 10 | vsOKST | W 85-76 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 161 |
| Feb 17 | vsTTU | W 72-67 | +7.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 21 | @BAY | L 68-73 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 24 | @TCU | L 78-90 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 149.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 28 | vsUTAH | W 73-60 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 3 | vsKU | W 70-60 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 7 | @ISU | L 65-86 | +16.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsSUU
SUUW 81-64
−0.5
9
vsUTU
UTUW 81-66
+2.5
14
vsGONZ
GONZL 65-77
+1.5
17
vsGAST
GASTW 75-62
−5.5
20
@HAW
HAWW 83-76
+8.5
24
vsTEX
TEXW 87-86
+7.5
25
vsWSU
WSUW 100-94
+1.5
26
vsUSC
USCL 75-88
−8.5
6
vsOU
OUW 86-70
+21.5
9
vsNAU
NAUW 73-48
+8.5
13
vsSCU
SCUW 82-79
+4.5
17
@UCLA
UCLAL 77-90
−3.5
21
vsORST
ORSTL 75-78
−15.5
3
vsCOLO
COLOL 89-95
−7.5
7
@BYU
BYUL 76-104
−10.5
10
vsKSU
KSUW 87-84
+1.5
14
@ARIZ
ARIZL 82-89
+14.5
18
@HOU
HOUL 73-103
−11.5
21
vsWVU
WVUL 63-75
−13.5
24
vsCIN
CINW 82-68
+17.5
27
@UCF
UCFL 76-79
+3.5
31
vsARIZ
ARIZL 74-87
+1.5
4
@UTAH
UTAHW 71-63
+9.5
7
@COLO
COLOL 70-78
−4.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 85-76
+5.5
17
vsTTU
TTUW 72-67
+12.5
21
@BAY
BAYL 68-73
+3.5
24
@TCU
TCUL 78-90
−5.5
28
vsUTAH
UTAHW 73-60
+6.5
3
vsKU
KUW 70-60
+15.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 65-86
−4.5
covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsSUU
SUUW 81-64
−6.5
9
vsUTU
UTUW 81-66
−5.5
14
vsGONZ
GONZL 65-77
−16.5
17
vsGAST
GASTW 75-62
−8.5
20
@HAW
HAWW 83-76
+15.5
24
vsTEX
TEXW 87-86
+19.5
25
vsWSU
WSUW 100-94
+36.5
26
vsUSC
USCL 75-88
+1.5
6
vsOU
OUW 86-70
−1.5
9
vsNAU
NAUW 73-48
−33.5
13
vsSCU
SCUW 82-79
+6.5
17
@UCLA
UCLAL 77-90
+24.5
21
vsORST
ORSTL 75-78
+5.5
3
vsCOLO
COLOL 89-95
+27.5
7
@BYU
BYUL 76-104
+11.5
10
vsKSU
KSUW 87-84
+1.5
14
@ARIZ
ARIZL 82-89
+3.5
18
@HOU
HOUL 73-103
+33.5
21
vsWVU
WVUL 63-75
−7.5
24
vsCIN
CINW 82-68
+3.5
27
@UCF
UCFL 76-79
−6.5
31
vsARIZ
ARIZL 74-87
−2.5
4
@UTAH
UTAHW 71-63
−27.5
7
@COLO
COLOL 70-78
−10.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 85-76
−2.5
17
vsTTU
TTUW 72-67
−17.5
21
@BAY
BAYL 68-73
−16.5
24
@TCU
TCUL 78-90
+18.5
28
vsUTAH
UTAHW 73-60
−17.5
3
vsKU
KUW 70-60
−21.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 65-86
+2.5
over 15under 16avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Baylor
15-15 overall · 6-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Utah101–75
- L@ Houston64–77
- W@ UCF87–86
- Lvs Arizona80–87
- Wvs Arizona St73–68
3 days since their last game.
Arizona St
16-15 overall · 7-11 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Iowa State65–86
- Wvs Kansas70–60
- Wvs Utah73–60
- L@ TCU78–90
- L@ Baylor68–73
3 days since their last game.