CEFCU Arena · at Illinois St · Conference game
Closing line
ILST -8.5✓ ILST covered by 13.5
ILST -8.5✓ ILST covered by 13.5Closing total138.5Over by 11.5
 VAL | This season | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| 12-12 | Record | 15-9 |
| 16-8 | ATS | 12-12 |
| 12-12 | O/U | 10-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAL 65–74 ILST · ✓ ILST (78%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 34 | 30 | 64 |
| ILST | 34 | 52 | 86 |
1st half: VAL 34, ILST 34 (tied). The model had ILST by 5.1 and a total of 65.3 (actual 68).
Team stats
| VAL | ILST | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-66 36% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 6-16 38% | 3-pointers | 9-26 35% |
| 10-14 71% | Free throws | 17-17 100% |
| 32 12 off | Rebounds | 39 8 off |
| 8 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Dease F | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-1 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 31 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 5-17 | 1-3 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 30 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-13 | 2-7 |
| Justus McNair G | 20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brody Whitaker G | 28 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-2 |
| Sader Servilus G | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson, Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Mark Brown Jr., Kobe Walker, Tucker Tornatta
| ILST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Wolf G | 28 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Johnny Kinziger G | 26 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 7-15 | 3-8 |
| Boden Skunberg G | 21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Mason Klabo G | 18 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Chase Walker F | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ty Pence G | 28 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman G | 28 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Landon Moore G | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Brandon Lieb F | 18 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaac Ericksen, Jack Daugherty, Nick Allen, Ty Blake, Cameron Barnes
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILST -8.5
ModelILST -8.8
Model edgeILST +0.3
W ILST covered
Total
Market138.5
Model139.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
VAL 65.3 · ILST 74.1
VAL 64 · ILST 86
Win probability
ILST 78%
1st half
Spread
ILST -5.1
tied
Total
65.3
68 points
Projected score
VAL 30.1 · ILST 35.2
VAL 34 · ILST 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILST -9.5
1 → VAL
CloseILST -8.5
1 pt toward VAL
Total
Open135.5
▲ 3
Close138.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
VAL +360 · ILST -470
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILST -9.5 · closed ILST -8.5 · moved 1 toward VALmodel ILST -9
model ILST -9
Opened 135.5 · closed 138.5 · moved 3 upmodel 139.5
model 139.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
| ILST | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
VAL 6–2 ILSTVAL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · VAL 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | ILST 71 @ VAL 77 | VAL +6.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | VAL 78 @ ILST 86 | ILST -7.5 | ILST W |
| Mar 3, 2023-24 | ILST 72 @ VAL 75 | VAL +5.5 | VAL W |
| Jan 14, 2023-24 | VAL 59 @ ILST 50 | ILST -9.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | ILST 76 @ VAL 81 | VAL -3.5 | VAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Valparaiso
24 games played
Straight up
12-12
50% wins
Against the spread
16-8
67% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vs MUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @ UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @ SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vs UIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 7 | vsILST | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MUR | L 79-92 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @ BEL | L 74-78 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNI | W 54-44 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | vsSIU | W 69-63 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 28 | vsBEL | L 77-78 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 31 | @ INST | W 76-72 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 3 | @ BRAD | L 65-72 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 6 | vs EVAN | W 70-63 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 9 | @ DRKE | W 81-76 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+12.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
−0.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+7.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
+11.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
+4.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+4.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+6.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
+0.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 70-63
−1.5
9
@DRKE
DRKEW 81-76
+8.5
covered 16didn’t cover 8avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
7
vsILST
ILSTW 77-71
+9.5
10
@MUR
MURL 79-92
+18.5
13
@BEL
BELL 74-78
+5.5
17
vsUNI
UNIW 54-44
−32.5
21
vsSIU
SIUW 69-63
−10.5
28
vsBEL
BELL 77-78
+9.5
31
@INST
INSTW 76-72
+2.5
3
@BRAD
BRADL 65-72
−7.5
6
vsEVAN
EVANW 70-63
−3.5
9
@DRKE
DRKEW 81-76
+12.5
over 12under 12avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois St
24 games played
Straight up
15-9
63% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-14
42% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ OHIO | L 68-72 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 9 | vs COR | W 76-65 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs USC | L 67-87 | +15.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ LBSU | W 82-80 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 23 | vs CCU | W 94-42 | -12.5 | W +39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 27 | vs CLT | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs FUR | W 72-65 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs EKU | W 89-78 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | vs CHST | W 95-53 | -20.5 | W +21.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | vs USU | L 78-83 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 18 | @SIU | W 75-68 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | vsINST | W 85-65 | -13.5 | W +6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | @DRKE | W 73-56 | -4.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 1 | vsEVAN | W 73-47 | -12.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 7 | @VAL | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | vsUIC | L 59-63 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 14 | @INST | L 89-94 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 17 | vsBRAD | W 88-62 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vsUNI | W 59-54 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 113 |
| Jan 24 | @BEL | L 69-80 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 28 | @MUR | W 70-65 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 3 | vsSIU | L 50-54 | -8.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | U 104 |
| Feb 6 | vsDRKE | W 86-76 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 9 | @EVAN | L 80-88 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 137.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−2.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
+4.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−4.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
−6.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
+39.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+4.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
+3.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
−1.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+21.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+3.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
+8.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
+6.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
+12.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
+13.5
7
@VAL
VALL 71-77
−12.5
10
vsUIC
UICL 59-63
−14.5
14
@INST
INSTL 89-94
−11.5
17
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-62
+20.5
21
vsUNI
UNIW 59-54
−1.5
24
@BEL
BELL 69-80
−5.5
28
@MUR
MURW 70-65
+8.5
3
vsSIU
SIUL 50-54
−12.5
6
vsDRKE
DRKEW 86-76
−0.5
9
@EVAN
EVANL 80-88
−18.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−21.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
−23.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−1.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
+20.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
−10.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+8.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
−8.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
+12.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+3.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+12.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
−10.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
−2.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
−16.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
−24.5
7
@VAL
VALL 71-77
+9.5
10
vsUIC
UICL 59-63
−19.5
14
@INST
INSTL 89-94
+34.5
17
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-62
+2.5
21
vsUNI
UNIW 59-54
−19.5
24
@BEL
BELL 69-80
−1.5
28
@MUR
MURW 70-65
−24.5
3
vsSIU
SIUL 50-54
−36.5
6
vsDRKE
DRKEW 86-76
+17.5
9
@EVAN
EVANL 80-88
+30.5
over 10under 14avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Valparaiso
12-12 overall · 7-7 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Drake81–76
- Wvs Evansville70–63
- L@ Bradley65–72
- W@ Indiana St76–72
- Lvs Belmont77–78
3 days since their last game.
Illinois St
15-9 overall · 8-6 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Evansville80–88
- Wvs Drake86–76
- Lvs S Illinois50–54
- W@ Murray St70–65
- L@ Belmont69–80
3 days since their last game.