Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -4.5✓ SMU covered by 14.5
LOU -4.5✓ SMU covered by 14.5Closing total168.5Over by 11.5
| LOU | This season | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 19-6 | Record | 17-8 |
| 13-12 | ATS | 11-14 |
| 10-15 | O/U | 14-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 85–81 SMU · ✗ LOU (65%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 49 | 36 | 85 |
| SMU | 52 | 43 | 95 |
1st half: LOU 49, SMU 52 (SMU by 3). The model had LOU by 2.8 and a total of 77.3 (actual 101).
Team stats
| LOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-67 45% | Field goals | 38-65 58% |
| 13-34 38% | 3-pointers | 9-19 47% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 10-12 83% |
| 38 14 off | Rebounds | 30 5 off |
| 18 | Assists | 21 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 4 | Blocks | 6 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 35 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 11-18 | 4-8 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 33 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-16 | 2-11 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 31 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-3 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 25 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2-7 | 2-5 |
| Sananda Fru F | 20 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aly Khalifa C | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 15 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Khani Rooths F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke
| SMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boopie Miller G | 37 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 9-14 | 1-2 |
| B.J. Edwards G | 34 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. G | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 10-19 | 1-6 |
| Corey Washington F | 29 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 7-9 | 3-3 |
| Samet Yigitoglu C | 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Toombs F | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Sam Walters F | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| B.J. Davis-Ray G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Mitchell Holmes F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trey Utter, Chance Puryear, Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Nigel Walls, Billy White III
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -4.5
ModelLOU -4.5
Model edge—
SMU covered
Total
Market168.5
Model165.6
Model edgeUnder 2.9
L Over
Projected score
LOU 85 · SMU 80.6
LOU 85 · SMU 95
Win probability
LOU 65%
1st half
Spread
LOU -2.8
SMU -3.0
Total
77.3
101 points
Projected score
LOU 40.1 · SMU 37.3
LOU 49 · SMU 52
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -2.5
2 → LOU
CloseLOU -4.5
2 pts toward LOU
Total
Open167.5
▲ 1
Close168.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -192 · SMU +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -2.5 · closed LOU -4.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -4.5 matches the line
model LOU -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 167.5 · closed 168.5 · moved 1 upmodel 165.5
model 165.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| SMU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 2–0 SMULOU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings · LOU 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | SMU 74 @ LOU 88 | LOU -9.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | LOU 98 @ SMU 73 | SMU -1.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
25 games played
Straight up
19-6
76% wins
Against the spread
13-12
52% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-15
40% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vsSMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
covered 13didn’t cover 12avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
over 10under 15avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
SMU
25 games played
Straight up
17-8
68% wins
Against the spread
11-14
44% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-11
56% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TAR | W 96-76 | -21.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 6 | vs AMCC | W 69-58 | -23.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 11 | vs MUR | W 102-91 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs BTLR | W 87-85 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | vs UAPB | W 106-60 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 166 |
| Nov 21 | vs ARST | W 100-69 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs RAD | W 89-72 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 28 | @ MSST | W 87-81 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ VAN | L 69-88 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 7 | vs TA&M | W 93-80 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 13 | vs LSU | L 77-89 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs CARK | W 99-82 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 28 | vs CSUF | W 110-63 | -21.5 | W +25.5 | 170.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 3 | vs UNC | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 7 | @ CLEM | L 70-74 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @DUKE | L 75-82 | +15.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | vsVT | W 77-76 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 17 | vsUVA | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 20 | @WAKE | W 91-79 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | vs FSU | W 83-80 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 31 | @LOU | L 74-88 | +9.5 | L −4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 3 | vsNCSU | L 83-84 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | @PITT | W 86-67 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 10 | vsND | W 89-81 | -10.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 14 | @ SYR | L 78-79 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
−1.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−12.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+0.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
−5.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
+10.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
+16.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−6.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+7.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+14.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
−10.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
−7.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+25.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+12.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−0.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+8.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−7.5
17
vsUVA
UVAL 68-72
−1.5
20
@WAKE
WAKEW 91-79
+13.5
24
vsFSU
FSUW 83-80
−8.5
31
@LOU
LOUL 74-88
−4.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUL 83-84
+0.5
7
@PITT
PITTW 86-67
+14.5
10
vsND
NDW 89-81
−2.5
14
@SYR
SYRL 78-79
−2.5
covered 11didn’t cover 14avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
+27.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−33.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+28.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
+8.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
−2.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
−3.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−4.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+5.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+8.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
+7.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
+24.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+2.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+24.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−5.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+1.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−2.5
17
vsUVA
UVAL 68-72
−13.5
20
@WAKE
WAKEW 91-79
+12.5
24
vsFSU
FSUW 83-80
−0.5
31
@LOU
LOUL 74-88
−1.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUL 83-84
+7.5
7
@PITT
PITTW 86-67
+5.5
10
vsND
NDW 89-81
+15.5
14
@SYR
SYRL 78-79
−0.5
over 14under 11avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
19-6 overall · 8-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Baylor82–71
- Wvs NC State118–77
- W@ Wake Forest88–80
- Wvs Notre Dame76–65
- Wvs SMU88–74
3 days since their last game.
SMU
17-8 overall · 6-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Syracuse78–79
- Wvs Notre Dame89–81
- W@ Pitt86–67
- Lvs NC State83–84
- L@ Louisville74–88
3 days since their last game.