KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -1.5✓ DUKE covered by 9.5
DUKE -1.5✓ DUKE covered by 9.5Closing total161.5Under by 4.5
| DUKE | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13-1 | Record | 11-3 |
| 7-7 | ATS | 9-5 |
| 5-9 | O/U | 7-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 79–80 LOU · ✗ LOU (51%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 38 | 46 | 84 |
| LOU | 47 | 26 | 73 |
1st half: DUKE 38, LOU 47 (LOU by 9). The model had LOU by 0.1 and a total of 74.3 (actual 85).
Team stats
| DUKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-57 51% | Field goals | 26-65 40% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 12-38 32% |
| 19-28 68% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 39 8 off | Rebounds | 37 10 off |
| 10 | Assists | 13 |
| 11 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 39 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 10-12 | 3-4 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 36 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 7-17 | 4-10 |
| Caleb Foster G | 34 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 9-13 | 0-2 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maliq Brown F | 28 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dame Sarr F | 26 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Darren Harris G | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Jack Scott
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 33 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 8-19 | 4-11 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 32 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-3 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 31 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 30 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Sananda Fru F | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe Rodgers G | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 6-6 | 5-5 |
| Khani Rooths F | 12 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-5 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Vangelis Zougris, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr.
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -2.5
4 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -1.5
4 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open160.5
▲ 1
Close161.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -112 · LOU -108
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -2.5 · closed DUKE -1.5 · moved 4 toward DUKEmodel LOU -0.5
model LOU -0.5
Opened 160.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 1 upmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -1.5 | LOU -0.4 | LOU +1.9 | L DUKE covered |
| Total | 161.5 | 158.7 | Under 2.8 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | DUKE 79.1 · LOU 79.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -0.1 | LOU -9.0 |
| 1H total | 74.3 | 85 |
| 1H projected score | DUKE 37.1 · LOU 37.2 | DUKE 38 · LOU 47 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| LOU | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
DUKE 6–0 LOUDUKE leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 6 meetings · DUKE 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | LOU 62 vs DUKE 73 | DUKE -6.5 | DUKE W |
| Dec 8, 2024-25 | DUKE 76 @ LOU 65 | LOU +8.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | LOU 59 @ DUKE 84 | DUKE -20.5 | DUKE W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | DUKE 83 @ LOU 69 | LOU +14.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 20, 2022-23 | LOU 62 @ DUKE 79 | DUKE -17.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
14 games played
Straight up
13-1
93% wins
Against the spread
7-7
50% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
over 5under 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
9-5
64% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
over 7under 7avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
13-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Florida St91–87
- Wvs Georgia Tech85–79
- Lvs Texas Tech81–82
- Wvs Lipscomb97–73
- W@ Michigan St66–60
3 days since their last game.
Louisville
11-3 overall · 1-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Stanford76–80
- W@ California90–70
- Wvs Montana94–54
- L@ Tennessee62–83
- Wvs Memphis99–73
4 days since their last game.