Rupp Arena · at Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
UK -1.5✓ UK covered by 1.5
UK -1.5✓ UK covered by 1.5Closing total147.5Under by 2.5
 TENN | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 16-6 | Record | 16-7 |
| 9-13 | ATS | 10-13 |
| 14-8 | O/U | 11-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 74–75 UK · ✓ UK (53%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 47 | 24 | 71 |
| UK | 33 | 41 | 74 |
1st half: TENN 47, UK 33 (TENN by 14). The model had UK by 0.5 and a total of 70.1 (actual 80).
Team stats
| TENN | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-62 37% | Field goals | 28-56 50% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 5-19 26% |
| 17-25 68% | Free throws | 13-22 59% |
| 46 19 off | Rebounds | 31 8 off |
| 17 | Assists | 16 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 36 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 5-15 | 4-11 |
| Nate Ament F | 35 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 10-17 | 4-6 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 32 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 25 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-13 | 0-0 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 24 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Felix Okpara F | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Troy Henderson G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amaree Abram, Grant Hurst, Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Cade Phillips, Ethan Burg
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 36 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 10-17 | 0-1 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 30 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-7 |
| Collin Chandler G | 28 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-8 | 3-6 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 27 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 20 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Garrison F | 17 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Trent Noah F | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jaland Lowe, Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Reece Potter, Kam Williams, Zach Tow
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -1.5
no move
CloseUK -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open144.5
▲ 3
Close147.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
TENN -105 · UK -115
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -1.5 · unchangedmodel UK -1
model UK -1
Opened 144.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 3 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UK -1.5 | UK -1.0 | TENN +0.5 | L UK covered |
| Total | 147.5 | 149.7 | Over 2.2 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | TENN 74.3 · UK 75.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UK -0.5 | TENN -14.0 |
| 1H total | 70.1 | 80 |
| 1H projected score | TENN 34.8 · UK 35.3 | TENN 47 · UK 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
| UK | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
TENN 4–7 UKUK leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · TENN 4-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | UK 80 @ TENN 78 | TENN -6.5 | UK W |
| Mar 28, 2024-25 | UK 65 vs TENN 78 | TENN -5.5 | TENN W |
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | TENN 64 @ UK 75 | UK +3.5 | UK W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | UK 78 @ TENN 73 | TENN -10.5 | UK W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | UK 85 @ TENN 81 | TENN -8.5 | UK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
22 games played
Straight up
16-6
73% wins
Against the spread
9-13
41% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-8
64% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vsUK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @ UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vs AUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | vs MISS | W 84-66 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+5.5
covered 9didn’t cover 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+10.5
over 14under 8avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
23 games played
Straight up
16-7
70% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-12
48% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs MSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vsTEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsMISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs OU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
over 11under 12avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
16-6 overall · 6-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ole Miss84–66
- Wvs Auburn77–69
- W@ Georgia86–85
- W@ Alabama79–73
- Lvs Kentucky78–80
4 days since their last game.
Kentucky
16-7 overall · 7-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oklahoma94–78
- W@ Arkansas85–77
- L@ Vanderbilt55–80
- Wvs Ole Miss72–63
- Wvs Texas85–80
3 days since their last game.