Pete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU · Conference game
Closing line
LSU -7.5✓ MSST covered by 21.5
LSU -7.5✓ MSST covered by 21.5Closing total154.5Under by 8.5
 MSST | This season | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-10 | Record | 13-7 |
| 6-14 | ATS | 12-8 |
| 10-10 | O/U | 9-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 75–84 LSU · ✗ LSU (77%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 44 | 36 | 80 |
| LSU | 21 | 45 | 66 |
1st half: MSST 44, LSU 21 (MSST by 23). The model had LSU by 5.0 and a total of 74.4 (actual 65).
Team stats
| MSST | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-55 51% | Field goals | 25-58 43% |
| 10-21 48% | 3-pointers | 4-20 20% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 12-23 52% |
| 43 13 off | Rebounds | 24 8 off |
| 14 | Assists | 7 |
| 5 | Steals | 12 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 32 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 4-12 | 1-6 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 27 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-3 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 23 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Achor Achor F | 12 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sergej Macura F | 28 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Epps G | 21 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 3-7 | 3-4 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 17 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
Did not play: Brandon Walker, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Amier Ali, Dellquan Warren, Gai Chol
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Tamba F | 35 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Dedan Thomas Jr. G | 28 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 6-13 | 2-4 |
| Max Mackinnon G | 27 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 6-11 | 1-5 |
| Marquel Sutton F | 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Reece G | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Rashad King G | 20 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Robert Miller III F | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Mazi Mosley G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matt Gilhool, Jaden Bobbett, Ron Zipper, Marcus Vaughn, Jalen Reed, PJ Carter
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLSU -7.5
ModelLSU -8.5
Model edgeLSU +1.0
L MSST covered
Total
Market154.5
Model159.0
Model edgeOver 4.5
L Under
Projected score
MSST 75.2 · LSU 83.8
MSST 80 · LSU 66
Win probability
LSU 77%
1st half
Spread
LSU -5.0
MSST -23.0
Total
74.4
65 points
Projected score
MSST 34.7 · LSU 39.7
MSST 44 · LSU 21
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLSU -7.5
no move
CloseLSU -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open150.5
▲ 4
Close154.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MSST +260 · LSU -325
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel LSU -8.5
model LSU -8.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 4 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| LSU | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MSST 5–1 LSUMSST leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · MSST has won the last 5 meetings · MSST 6-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | LSU 62 vs MSST 91 | MSST -9.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | LSU 69 @ MSST 81 | MSST -11.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | MSST 70 vs LSU 60 | LSU +4.5 | MSST W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | MSST 87 @ LSU 67 | LSU +4.5 | MSST W |
| Feb 8, 2022-23 | LSU 53 @ MSST 64 | MSST -9.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
20 games played
Straight up
10-10
50% wins
Against the spread
6-14
30% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-10
50% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vs MISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs VAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
covered 6didn’t cover 14avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
over 10under 10avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
LSU
20 games played
Straight up
13-7
65% wins
Against the spread
12-8
60% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-11
45% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vsNOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs TTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vsSMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vsSELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 29 | vs USM | W 90-62 | -21.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 3 | @TA&M | L 72-75 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | vs SC | L 68-78 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | @VAN | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | vsUK | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | vs MIZ | W 78-70 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | @ FLA | L 61-79 | +15.5 | L −2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ ARK | L 81-85 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
+6.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
+2.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
−17.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
+2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
+2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
+6.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−2.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+6.5
covered 12didn’t cover 8avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
−2.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
−21.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
+0.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
−2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
−2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
−0.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−18.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+2.5
over 9under 11avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
10-10 overall · 2-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Vanderbilt56–88
- L@ Texas A&M68–88
- Lvs Ole Miss67–68
- Lvs Alabama82–97
- L@ Kentucky68–92
4 days since their last game.
LSU
13-7 overall · 1-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Arkansas81–85
- L@ Florida61–79
- Wvs Missouri78–70
- Lvs Kentucky74–75
- L@ Vanderbilt73–84
4 days since their last game.