When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
20 games · 2025 · Los Angeles Rams · pick one to list those games
60% went over. Of the 12 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
All 20 games
2025 · Los Angeles Rams · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
SEA -2.5 | 45.5 | 13305858 | Q3 | SEA Q1 | 27–31 |
2025 · Postseason |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 720203437 | U | CHI Q2 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2025 · Postseason |
LAR -10 | 44.5 | 7313765 | Q4 | CAR Q1 | 34–31 |
2025 · Week 18 |
LAR -14.5 | 49.5 | 6224357 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip |
20–37 |
2025 · Week 17 |
LAR -7.5 | 48.5 | 7214151 | Q4 | ATL Q1 Late over |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 16 |
SEA -1.5 | 42.5 | 1020376075 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 37–38 |
2025 · Week 15 |
LAR -5.5 | 54.5 | 14415875 | Q3 | LAR Q3 | 34–41 |
2025 · Week 14 |
LAR -9.5 | 49.5 | 17344862 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 45–17 |
2025 · Week 13 |
LAR -10 | 44.5 | 21384559 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 28–31 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LAR -7.5 | 50.5 | 14383841 | U | LAR Q1 | 7–34 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 17232640 | U | SEA Q3 Late cover flip |
19–21 |
2025 · Week 10 |
LAR -6.5 | 49.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | LAR Q1 | 42–26 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LAR -14.5 | 45.5 | 7303744 | U | LAR Q3 | 10–34 |
2025 · Week 7 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 14212142 | U | LAR Q1 | 35–7 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LAR -6.5 | 44.5 | 362020 | U | LAR Q3 | 17–3 |
2025 · Week 5 |
LAR -8.5 | 43.5 | 724344649 | Q4 | SF Q1 Late over |
26–23 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 6232347 | U | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–27 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PHI -3.5 | 45.5 | 17264759 | Q3 | PHI Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
26–33 |
2025 · Week 2 |
LAR -5.5 | 40.5 | 7233652 | Q4 | LAR Q4 | 33–19 |
2025 · Week 1 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162323 | U | LAR Q3 | 9–14 |
LAR
SEA
CHI
CAR
ARI
ATL
DET
TB
SF
NO
JAX
BAL
IND
PHI
TEN
HOUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 40% 8
Q2 15% 3
Q3 25% 5
Q4 20% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 61% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 84% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.