When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2025 · Jacksonville Jaguars · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 10 overs, 10% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 22% of games.
All 18 games
2025 · Jacksonville Jaguars · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
JAX -1.5 | 51.5 | 3172351 | U | BUF Q1 | 27–24 |
2025 · Week 18 |
JAX -13.5 | 46.5 | 14384148 | Q4 | JAX Q2 | 7–41 |
2025 · Week 17 |
JAX -4.5 | 48.5 | 3173440 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DEN -3.5 | 46.5 | 7274854 | Q3 | JAX Q1 | 34–20 |
2025 · Week 15 |
JAX -13.5 | 40.5 | 21415468 | Q2 | JAX Q2 | 20–48 |
2025 · Week 14 |
IND -2.5 | 44.5 | 21384155 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 19–36 |
2025 · Week 13 |
JAX -6 | 42.5 | 10212828 | U | JAX Q2 | 25–3 |
2025 · Week 12 |
JAX -1.5 | 46.5 | 1424314851 | Q4 | JAX OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LAC -2.5 | 42.5 | 10202741 | U | JAX Q1 | 6–35 |
2025 · Week 10 |
HOU -2.5 | 38.5 | 10303965 | Q3 | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–36 |
2025 · Week 9 |
JAX -1.5 | 44.5 | 09154659 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–29 |
2025 · Week 7 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 14212142 | U | LAR Q1 | 35–7 |
2025 · Week 6 |
SEA -1.5 | 47.5 | 6192632 | U | SEA Q2 | 20–12 |
2025 · Week 5 |
KC -3.5 | 45.5 | 7213559 | Q4 | JAX Q3 Late over |
28–31 |
2025 · Week 4 |
SF -3.5 | 46.5 | 3234047 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 26–21 |
2025 · Week 3 |
JAX -1.5 | 42.5 | 7101327 | U | JAX Q1 Late cover flip |
10–17 |
2025 · Week 2 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 14274858 | Q4 | CIN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 1 |
JAX -4.5 | 44.5 | 6232336 | U | JAX Q2 | 10–26 |
BUF
JAX
TEN
IND
DEN
NYJ
ARI
LAC
HOU
LV
LAR
SEA
KC
SF
CIN
CARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 8
Q2 28% 5
Q3 6% 1
Q4 17% 3
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 72% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 94% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.