When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
19 games · 2025 · Buffalo Bills · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 19 games
2025 · Buffalo Bills · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
DEN -1.5 | 45.5 | 1030406063 | Q4 | DEN OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–33 |
2025 · Postseason |
JAX -1.5 | 51.5 | 3172351 | U | BUF Q1 | 27–24 |
2025 · Week 18 |
BUF -13.5 | 39.5 | 7212943 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 8–35 |
2025 · Week 17 |
BUF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7131325 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–12 |
2025 · Week 16 |
BUF -10.5 | 41.5 | 14304043 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BUF -2.5 | 49.5 | 14314566 | Q4 | BUF Q4 | 35–31 |
2025 · Week 14 |
BUF -6 | 54.5 | 10323973 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 34–39 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BUF -3 | 44.5 | 0102333 | U | BUF Q3 | 26–7 |
2025 · Week 12 |
BUF -4.5 | 44.5 | 9363942 | U | HOU Q1 | 19–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10415776 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
32–44 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BUF -8.5 | 50.5 | 7161643 | U | MIA Q1 | 13–30 |
2025 · Week 9 |
KC -2.5 | 53.5 | 7344149 | U | BUF Q1 | 21–28 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 3224349 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 40–9 |
2025 · Week 6 |
BUF -3.5 | 49.5 | 21283538 | U | ATL Q1 | 14–24 |
2025 · Week 5 |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 392343 | U | NE Q1 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 4 |
BUF -14.5 | 48.5 | 21243750 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–31 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BUF -11.5 | 50.5 | 14283552 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
21–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
BUF -5.5 | 46.5 | 10232640 | U | BUF Q1 | 30–10 |
2025 · Week 1 |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 10335381 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
40–41 |
BUF
DEN
JAX
NYJ
PHI
CLE
NE
CIN
PIT
HOU
TB
MIA
KC
CAR
ATL
NO
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 63% 12
Q2 11% 2
Q3 5% 1
Q4 16% 3
OT 5% 1
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 72% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 74% of 19 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.