When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2024 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · pick one to list those games
67% went over. Of the 12 overs, 8% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 18 games
2024 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
TB -3.5 | 51.5 | 3203043 | U | WSH Q4 | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TB -14.5 | 44.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TB -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415562 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 16 |
TB -4.5 | 47.5 | 10374350 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 15 |
LAC -3 | 45.5 | 14304757 | Q3 | TB Q3 | 40–17 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TB -6.5 | 47.5 | 14242441 | U | TB Q4 | 13–28 |
2024 · Week 13 |
TB -6.5 | 46.5 | 1023264649 | OT | CAR Q1 Late over |
26–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
TB -6.5 | 40.5 | 7233037 | U | TB Q1 | 30–7 |
2024 · Week 10 |
SF -6.5 | 50.5 | 7132343 | U | TB Q3 | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
KC -8.5 | 45.5 | 317274854 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 8 |
ATL -0.5 | 47.5 | 14414857 | Q3 | ATL Q2 | 31–26 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BAL -4.5 | 50.5 | 10274472 | Q4 | BAL Q2 | 41–31 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 42.5 | 17515878 | Q2 | TB Q3 | 51–27 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
2024 · Week 4 |
PHI -0.5 | 43.5 | 14314649 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 16–33 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TB -5.5 | 40.5 | 14272733 | U | DEN Q1 | 26–7 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DET -7.5 | 51.5 | 9193636 | U | TB Q1 | 20–16 |
2024 · Week 1 |
TB -3.5 | 41.5 | 6233757 | Q4 | TB Q1 | 20–37 |
WSH
TB
NO
CAR
DAL
LAC
LV
NYG
SF
KC
ATL
BAL
PHI
DEN
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 9
Q2 17% 3
Q3 17% 3
Q4 11% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 71% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 72% and covered 83% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 6 | 100% 6 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.