When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2024 · Minnesota Vikings · pick one to list those games
39% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 11% of games.
All 18 games
2024 · Minnesota Vikings · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
MIN -2.5 | 47.5 | 10273636 | U | LAR Q1 | 9–27 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DET -2.5 | 56.5 | 7162640 | U | DET Q1 | 9–31 |
2024 · Week 17 |
GB -0.5 | 48.5 | 3163752 | Q4 | MIN Q2 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 43.5 | 7313751 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2024 · Week 15 |
MIN -6.5 | 43.5 | 10132342 | U | MIN Q1 | 12–30 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 14244263 | Q4 | MIN Q4 | 21–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | 6153245 | U | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIN -2.5 | 39.5 | 724345457 | Q4 | MIN OT | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
MIN -5.5 | 40.5 | 10193336 | U | MIN Q2 | 23–13 |
2024 · Week 10 |
MIN -7.5 | 42.5 | 10101319 | U | JAX Q1 | 12–7 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 072134 | U | MIN Q3 Late cover flip |
13–21 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIN -2.5 | 46.5 | 21283850 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 20–30 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MIN -1.5 | 50.5 | 10314560 | Q4 | DET Q2 Lead lost |
31–29 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIN -2.5 | 42.5 | 10242740 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–23 |
2024 · Week 4 |
GB -2.5 | 44.5 | 14353560 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 31–29 |
2024 · Week 3 |
HOU -2 | 46.5 | 14142841 | U | MIN Q1 | 7–34 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SF -3.5 | 46.5 | 3202740 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–23 |
2024 · Week 1 |
NYG -2.5 | 40.5 | 10173434 | U | MIN Q1 | 28–6 |
MIN
LAR
DET
GB
SEA
CHI
ATL
ARI
TEN
JAX
IND
NYJ
HOU
SF
NYGWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 61% 11
Q2 22% 4
Q3 6% 1
Q4 6% 1
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 94% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 100% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.