When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2024 · Los Angeles Chargers · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 28% of games.
All 18 games
2024 · Los Angeles Chargers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 6162644 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
12–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
LAC -6.5 | 41.5 | 6273354 | Q4 | LAC Q2 Late over |
34–20 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAC -5.5 | 41.5 | 7273747 | Q4 | LAC Q1 | 40–7 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 14344361 | Q3 | LAC Q4 | 27–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
LAC -3 | 45.5 | 14304757 | Q3 | TB Q3 | 40–17 |
2024 · Week 14 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 3132736 | U | LAC Q3 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAC -0.5 | 47.5 | 10163030 | U | LAC Q2 | 17–13 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BAL -2.5 | 50.5 | 7273353 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late over |
30–23 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAC -0.5 | 48.5 | 10304761 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late cover flip |
27–34 |
2024 · Week 10 |
LAC -8.5 | 40.5 | 10203044 | Q4 | LAC Q3 Late over |
17–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LAC -1.5 | 41.5 | 7232337 | U | LAC Q1 | 27–10 |
2024 · Week 8 |
LAC -7.5 | 41.5 | 2142434 | U | LAC Q3 | 8–26 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LAC -1.5 | 44.5 | 0131632 | U | ARI Q4 | 15–17 |
2024 · Week 6 |
LAC -2.5 | 37.5 | 10202339 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
23–16 |
2024 · Week 4 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 10172027 | U | LAC Q1 | 17–10 |
2024 · Week 3 |
PIT -2.5 | 35.5 | 7172030 | U | PIT Q4 | 10–20 |
2024 · Week 2 |
LAC -4.5 | 38.5 | 6202629 | U | LAC Q1 | 26–3 |
2024 · Week 1 |
LAC -3 | 40.5 | 10131632 | U | LAC Q4 | 10–22 |
LAC
HOU
LV
NE
DEN
TB
KC
ATL
BAL
CIN
TEN
CLE
NO
ARI
PIT
CARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 6
Q2 17% 3
Q3 22% 4
Q4 28% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 72% and covered 72% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 88% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.