When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2024 · Green Bay Packers · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.
All 18 games
2024 · Green Bay Packers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -5.5 | 45.5 | 10101932 | U | PHI Q1 | 10–22 |
2024 · Week 18 |
GB -10.5 | 41.5 | 10272746 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
24–22 |
2024 · Week 17 |
GB -0.5 | 48.5 | 3163752 | Q4 | MIN Q2 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Week 16 |
GB -14.5 | 43.5 | 7212434 | U | GB Q2 | 0–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
GB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14232943 | U | GB Q1 | 30–13 |
2024 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 53.5 | 7244565 | Q4 | GB Q3 | 31–34 |
2024 · Week 13 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 14273847 | U | GB Q1 | 17–30 |
2024 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243448 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
10–38 |
2024 · Week 11 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10173339 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
20–19 |
2024 · Week 9 |
DET -2.5 | 48.5 | 3203038 | U | DET Q2 | 24–14 |
2024 · Week 8 |
GB -3.5 | 49.5 | 0233757 | Q4 | JAX Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
30–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 3334046 | U | HOU Q1 | 22–24 |
2024 · Week 6 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 7344447 | Q4 | GB Q1 | 13–34 |
2024 · Week 5 |
GB -2.5 | 49.5 | 7233743 | U | GB Q3 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 4 |
GB -2.5 | 44.5 | 14353560 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 31–29 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 24274144 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 2 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 10101626 | U | GB Q1 | 10–16 |
2024 · Week 1 |
PHI -1.5 | 49.5 | 6365763 | Q3 | PHI Q3 | 29–34 |
GB
PHI
CHI
MIN
NO
SEA
DET
MIA
SF
JAX
HOU
ARI
LAR
TEN
INDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 67% 12
Q2 17% 3
Q3 17% 3
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 78% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 83% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.