When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
18 games · 2024 · Detroit Lions · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 10 overs, 10% had cashed by halftime and 70% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 18 games
2024 · Detroit Lions · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
DET -8.5 | 55.5 | 10525976 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 45–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DET -2.5 | 56.5 | 7162640 | U | DET Q1 | 9–31 |
2024 · Week 17 |
DET -3.5 | 50.5 | 13345974 | Q3 | DET Q4 | 40–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
DET -6.5 | 47.5 | 13415151 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 34–17 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DET -2.5 | 55.5 | 14355690 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 48–42 |
2024 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 53.5 | 7244565 | Q4 | GB Q3 | 31–34 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DET -10 | 48.5 | 3163043 | U | CHI Q4 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DET -6.5 | 49.5 | 3202730 | U | DET Q2 | 24–6 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DET -14.5 | 47.5 | 10344858 | Q3 | DET Q2 | 6–52 |
2024 · Week 10 |
DET -4.5 | 49.5 | 10303649 | U | HOU Q1 | 26–23 |
2024 · Week 9 |
DET -2.5 | 48.5 | 3203038 | U | DET Q2 | 24–14 |
2024 · Week 8 |
DET -12.5 | 46.5 | 21496666 | Q2 | DET Q2 | 14–52 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MIN -1.5 | 50.5 | 10314560 | Q4 | DET Q2 Lead lost |
31–29 |
2024 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 52.5 | 10334656 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 47–9 |
2024 · Week 4 |
DET -4.5 | 47.5 | 7285571 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 29–42 |
2024 · Week 3 |
DET -2.5 | 51.5 | 14303033 | U | DET Q2 | 20–13 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DET -7.5 | 51.5 | 9193636 | U | TB Q1 | 20–16 |
2024 · Week 1 |
DET -5.5 | 53.5 | 313274046 | U | DET OT Late cover flip |
20–26 |
WSH
DET
MIN
SF
CHI
BUF
GB
IND
JAX
HOU
TEN
DAL
SEA
ARI
TB
LARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 8
Q2 33% 6
Q3 6% 1
Q4 11% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 83% of 18 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 89% of 18 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 7 | 100% 7 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.